"Get this first one penned" — Shark Tank mentor Kevin O'Leary shares honest take on current US tariff plans

Kevin O
Kevin O'Leary (Image via Getty)

Shark Tank mentor Kevin O’Leary shared his views on current US tariff strategies in an Instagram reel posted on May 2, 2025. His commentary focused on a possible new trade deal and how tariffs may be evolving into a substitute for traditional tax mechanisms.

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The post came with a caption that laid out O'Leary’s take on the issue, suggesting a shift in how the U.S. might structure its trade agreements moving forward.

“They're making this plea without any information yet about what trade deals look like union by union, country by country. It would be really great to actually get this first one penned, which we’re being teased about.” the caption read.
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O’Leary speculated that a zero-tariff agreement may be underway with India, highlighting that the country had previously imposed 110% tariffs on U.S. automotive imports. He pointed out that, unlike many other countries, the U.S. does not implement a Value Added Tax (VAT), which may be prompting alternative fiscal approaches.


A possible India deal and a new US tariff model according to Shark Tank mentor O'Leary

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In the May 2 reel, Shark Tank mentor Kevin O’Leary speculated that the U.S. may be close to finalising a major trade deal, possibly with India. According to him, this could include both nations agreeing to eliminate tariffs entirely.

“We might see it tonight because I'll tell you why — this is a deal where the country has reduced all tariffs to zero and the US has reciprocated to zero,” he said.
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Kevin suggested the deal would establish free trade between the two countries. He noted that India previously placed a 110% tariff on automotive imports, while the U.S. had no similar charges in return. He hinted that the new agreement may introduce a flat 10% tariff instead, framing it as a stand-in for VAT.

“The reason that might be the case... we do not have a VAT, a value added tax. Most of the rest of the world does,” he explained.
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Kevin further added that maybe the new US VAT tax is "actually a tariff at 10%," and that was interesting because 10% generally would not cause major harm "in terms of inbound product and inventory.”

This model, according to O'Leary, could act as a template for future trade deals, offering a way to standardise reciprocal agreements without significantly affecting market flow.


Tariffs as leverage and India’s role in trade negotiations

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Shark Tank mentor O’Leary has repeatedly used India as an example to explain how tariffs can work as negotiation tools. In an earlier Instagram reel posted on April 29, 2025, he said that tariffs were short-term weapons to rebalance trade. "India is a great example.” He explained how India’s high automotive tariffs pushed them to initiate talks with the U.S., leading to possible revisions.

“Now the Indians have come to the White House and said, ‘Okay, let’s redo this. We’ll work out a deal,’” he shared.
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In an April 22 Fox Business segment, Kevin O’Leary shared his three-step plan to improve global trade. First, make a deal with India, especially for its pharmaceutical market. Next, open talks with China and protect the Federal Reserve’s independence.

On CNN, he also said old trade rules are hurting markets and should be updated. A successful deal with India, he added, could lead to similar agreements with Canada, the UK, and Switzerland.

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Shark Tank episodes are available to stream on ABC.

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Edited by Sindhura Venkatesh
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