Dallas Mavericks: Playoff Contenders or Conference Extras?

Dirk Nowitzki #41 of the Dallas Mavericks posts up against Ryan Anderson #33 of the New Orleans Hornets

Three years back, an ageing Dallas Mavericks team shocked basketball aficionados around the world when they triumphed in the NBA finals against a much younger Miami Heat. They relied heavily on veterans Dirk Nowitzki on offense and Shawn Marion on defense to get them through. Of course, back then, they had Jason Terry, Jason Kidd and Tyson Chandler supporting them.

Since then, it has been a shocking downhill ride for the Mavs. Lockouts, Dirk Nowtizki’s knee injuries, Kidd’s transfer to New York Knicks, Terry’s move to the Boston Celtics were all contributing factors to their decline. They hit rock bottom last season when they finished outside the top 8 for the first time since the 1999-00 season even after finishing with a .500 season (41-41) .

The Western Conference has probably never been this stacked in the recent past. Approximately 12 teams are contending for the top 8 seeds. San Antonio Spurs, Oklahoma City Thunder, Los Angeles Clippers, Houston Rockets, Memphis Grizzlies and Golden State Warriors will definitely perform better than Dallas. That means that at best, Dallas can hope to compete for the 7th and 8th seed in the conference.

This year, the Mavs have “rebuilt” their team, while retaining their core offensive and defensive players, Nowitzki and Marion. Dallas may have improved their team compared to last season, but so has most of the other teams in the West.

So, the questions remain: Have they improved enough? Can their restructured team return the team to their habituated place in the post season?

A few of the aspects which would contribute to them making the playoffs are listed below:

Offense

Dallas’ offense has increased by leaps and bounds compared to last season. While Jose Calderon is definitely no match for the legendary Kidd, Calderon is a capable point guard and he’s ably assisted by Devin Harris. These two could probably fill in for Kidd and make sure that the offense is well facilitated.

The Shooting guard position has seen a definite improvement compared to last season. Their starting SG last season was O.J. Mayo. While Mayo is a decent shooting guard, he’s been replaced by Monta Ellis, an explosive scorer. Veteran Vince Carter will serve as a fine back up for Ellis and will also play the role of a mentor.

Dirk’s return from injury is also a huge cause of relief for the Mavericks. He’ll take care of the power forward position and most of the scoring workload. Samuel Dalembert will probably be their starting center for now. They will be able to control the rebounding department along with veteran Shawn Marion.

In short, their offense will depend heavily on Nowitzki and Monta Ellis with support from Carter, Calderon and Harris. This should be good enough if they’re hoping to make it to the playoffs.

Defence

Can the Mavs defence hold up this season?

This word will cause every Mavs fan to wince. They have one of the worst defences in the league. They allowed 101.7 PPG through last season and were the 4th worst defensive team in the league. The “return” of Nowitzki will not really alter their defence as he’s primarily and offensive player.

If you are a Mavs fan and you’re hoping for a divine intervention or a miracle of some sort, sorry, but it just isn’t going to happen. Though in all fairness to them, they did try to lure Dwight Howard or Andrew Bynum to their team but were spurned by both of them.

Their perimeter defence continues to remain shaky at best. Calderon has been called “The worst defensive point guard in the league” and Ellis often has trouble just sticking to his man. Their only hope would be that they don’t let through players on fastbreaks and that the interior can make up for their deficiencies.

The interior defence comprises of their backup backup center (after Howard and Bynum) Samuel Dalembert and Small Forward Marion. Both are good rebounders and are especially good at defending the low post. Dalembert proved that he can step up and become a good shot-blocker if allowed more minutes each game. Considering the state of their defense, they would be hard pressed to say no.

If they want to enter the playoffs, they have to hope that they can outscore their opponents enough to make up for their shortcomings on defense.

Team Chemistry

This is another aspect which will heavily influence their chances of surviving till the postseason. The first issue is most of their starters and key bench players are new to Dallas. Ellis, Calderon, Dalembert, Harris have all signed with the Mavs just this off-season.

Will they be able to able to coordinate with the older Nowitzki and Marion?

They better be if they want to make it to the postseason.

The second issue at hand is whether Monta Ellis can play second fiddle to Dirk Nowitzki. Nowitzki is the better player, more famous and infinitely more influential at Dallas. Everybody knows that. However, Ellis being an explosive scorer, has always been the centre of his team’s offense till now. He has played with more talented or well recognised teammates but has never had to play second fiddle to anybody.If he does, then the Mavs have a pretty good chance at ensuring that their offense remains strong.

The Verdict

While it’s safe to say that the Mavs have definitely improved from last season, so has pretty much every team in the West. While traditionally, a little over .500 is good enough to get a team into the playoffs, that might not be the case this time.

With the first 6 seeds pretty much filled up, on paper at least, Dallas will be competing with the Minnesota Timberwolves, Denver Nuggets and the Portland Trail Blazers for the last two seeds. The likely winners in this three-way are the Mavs and the Timberwolves.

Based on the offseason movements, I think it’s safe to say that yes, the Mavs will make it to the playoffs but as a low seed and they will probably be a first round exit.