A Sub-Continental battle - Who will prevail?

So, the business end of the World T20 is here, with the commencement of the semi-finals. In the first semi final, the two sub-continent teams, Sri Lanka and Pakistan, will battle it out for a place in the finals. It will be at the Premadasa stadium and the match begins at 19:00 hours IST. The pitch is expected to be dry and hence, be spinner friendly.

Premadasa has hosted a number of matches in this World Cup and has favoured the team batting second. The only occasion a team batting second lost was when South Africa lost to India by just 1 run. Considering this, the toss will have an important role to play and no questions on what the captain winning the toss would elect to do – bowl first.

In all this, a point comes to mind, that no match has yet been a knock-out. Hence, there wasn’t the same amount of pressure that can take its toll, even on big players. Every team got second chances, but here, there are no two ways about it. You have to win, plain and simple. Hence, it would be interesting to see if a captain might decide to bat first in a pressure game – put runs on the board and let the pressure talk. One thing the captain must have at the back of his mind is that it is relatively easy to bat under lights, with the ball coming on to the bat a lot better.

Sri Lanka have had a great tournament, winning 4 out of their 5 matches, the only loss coming at the hands of South Africa in a rain curtailed 7 over game. Sri Lanka have their captain Jayawardene (yes, Jayawardene is the captain) in prime form, having played some crucial knocks. He has formed a formidable partnership with Dilshan up top and their opening partnership has been pretty successful, paying rich dividends. Apart from the top 2, Jeewan Mendis has come to the party in the middle order and Thisara Perrera has hit some lusty blows, finishing well for the Lankans. Batting wise, they would be hoping Sangakkara and Mathews find some form at the right time, who haven’t been that great, though Sangakkara had 2 decent knocks.

Bowling is undoubtedly their forte, with the likes of Malinga, Mendis and the new mystery spinner Akila Dananjay in their armoury. Malinga has picked form recently with a 5 wicket haul against the defending champions, England, bagging a total of 8 wickets and seems to be peaking just at the right time for the Lankans. Mendis, on the other hand, tasted success right from the beginning, returning with figures of 8-6 in the first match and has bowled reasonably well in the other games too, taking his tally to 9 wickets. Dananjay, the 18 year old, has played 2 games and has been effective. The likes of Nuwan Kulasekara and Jeewan Mendis have also contributed well with the ball, bowling some tight spells and contributing with the occasional wickets. Sri Lanka’s fielding is best among the sub continent teams and pretty good too.

Pakistan too have been pretty good in the tournament so far. Pitted alongside New Zealand and Bangladesh in what was called the ‘Group of Death’, they outperformed their counterparts winning both the matches comfortably. Although they conceded heavily against Bangladesh, their batting, especially Nazir, came to the party. The only hiccup came for them in the form of India, against whom they haven’t won a single World Cup game in any format. But that’s a different ball game – no form counts there. Pakistan were clinical against the Aussies, but avoided a scare against the Proteas, when Gul came in at No.9 and played a blinder to hand Pakistan an unlikely win.

Pakistan have a good batting lineup, with a lot of depth in their batting, thanks to the presence of some world class all-rounders. But like Sri Lanka, bowling is their forte. Pakistan possess the most lethal and potent of bowling attacks in the world in this format. The top 3 wicket takers ever in the history of the game in this format are all Pakistanis: Ajmal, Afridi and Gul. They have a lot of variety in their attack, with Gul, Arafat heading the pace attack while the trio of Afridi, Ajmal and Hafeez running their spin department all different. In batting, Pakistan have had good performances from different batsmen every time, the most consistent being Jamshed. From Pakistan’s perspective, they must be hoping Hafeez finds some form with the bat and Nazir smashes it around. Also, they would hoping Jamshed continues his good form and Kamran Akmal takes some confidence from the knock against Australia, even though, they have a deep batting line-up and any one can turn it around on his day. The other thing Pakistan would be hoping is that their star, Shahid Afridi, hits form at the right time with both the ball and the bat.

The last time the 2 teams met in a T20 international was in the final of the 2009 edition, where Pakistan had it easy, winning by 8 wickets, with Afridi being the Star.

Considering the form and the format, it is very difficult to pick a winner. But if I have to, I’ll put my money on Pakistan. They have been in the semi-finals in all the three editions, winning 1 (2009) and being the runners up in another (2007). Pakistan having missed out the last time around, losing to a brilliant Hussey innings, would like to make amends. Sri Lanka, on the other hand, would like to open their account in this format.

Even Sri Lanka winning won’t be a surprise, but the quality of teams Pakistan have played against and the amount of pressure they have been under, coming out of it on top, makes them the favourite.

Players To Watch:

Sri Lanka: Jayawadene, Dilshan, Malinga

Pakistan: Jamshed, Kamran Akmal, Ajmal,

Key Battles:

Gul v/s Jayawardene-DilshanSanga v/s AjmalJamshed v/s MalingaAkmal brothers v/s Mendis

Probable Line-ups:

Sri Lanka:

Jayawardene, Dilshan, Sangakarra, Mathews, Jeewan Mendis, Perrera, Thirimanne, Dananjay, Ajantha Mendis, Kulasekara, Malinga.

Pakistan:

Hafeez, Nazir, Jamshed, Kamran Akmal, Malik, Umar Akmal, Afridi, Razzaq, Gul, Raza, Ajmal.

Sri Lanka might go in with Rangana Herath, but I believe this is their best 11, but for Pakistan I would like to see 1 change – Arafat or Tanvir in place of Raza. I know Raza has bowled pretty well in the tournament and I am not taking any credit away from him, but the principle of ‘horses for courses’ makes me advocate for this change. Sri Lankans are very good players of spin; the likes of Jayawardene, Sanga and Mathews are one of the best in the business, hence, the change.