Unpopular prediction: Lewis Hamilton is never winning another F1 title

Lewis Hamilton, the seven-time world champion, suffered a heartbreaking defeat in 2021 to Max Verstappen. Were the circumstances questionable? Sure, they were. Will that change anything? Will it make Hamilton an eight-time world champion? No, it won't.

Coming into the 2022 season, both Mercedes and Lewis Hamilton were ready for war. Toto Wolff emphatically said that everyone should watch their backs this season. Hamilton claimed that his team does not make mistakes. Yet, after the first two races of the season, one thing is clear. Mercedes are too far behind. The team has a long way to go to improve if it wants to get back to the front of the grid.

From Hamilton's point of view, however, the 2022 season is slowly but surely turning out to be a realization that the Mercedes legend is not going to win another title in his career.

Mercedes is not challenging for a title this season

Let's call things out like they are. The no-sidepod Mercedes has not lived up to the hype it carried when it was first introduced to the grid during the Bahrain pre-season test. From the very first moment the car was rolled out on track, it looked horrible. The balance was all over the place. Two extremely talented drivers struggled to tame the car and then, worst of all, the level of porpoising it suffered was just horrible to watch.

The reality check was not the first race where Lewis Hamilton sneaked through to get to the podium. Rather, it was the second race when he was eliminated in Q1 on merit, for the first time since 2009. On average, that Mercedes is around half a second slower than the frontrunners in Red Bull and Ferrari. During races, that gap seems even bigger because of the relative tire degradation.

Does the new set of regulations mean that the development curve will be steeper than what we saw last season? Sure, that is going to be the case. In an era where cost caps are a big thing and Mercedes are even more compromised by the limited wind tunnel time, is it still realistic that they can make up such a huge gap in a short period of time?

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To be honest, the answer is no. The gap is far too big and the regulations are far too restrictive for Mercedes to just close the gap to the front in a race or two. Progress is going to take time and more than just a few races. Sadly though, by then, the ship might have sailed for a potential championship challenge for Lewis Hamilton.

Lewis Hamilton is in the last two years of his contract

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While it's fair to say that even though it doesn't seem like it, Lewis Hamilton might just be in the last two years of his career. He signed an extension with Mercedes last season that gave him two more seasons with the team until the end of the 2023 season. While speculations have always been there about his future, there is a reality that every athlete faces in his career. Age catches up with everyone and, at 37 years of age, the Briton is no sprightly young lad. Despite records like seven world titles and more than 100 poles and wins, one has to question whether Hamilton will still be the asset he was as a 20-something-year-old with an entire career in front of him.

Additionally, it's not like he's driving the best machinery on the grid. He's driving a car that is a significant downgrade from a Ferrari or a Red Bull and that will take a toll on motivation if not anything else.

Without the best machinery on the grid and with a career that is more than fulfilling and satisfying, will Lewis Hamilton be willing to make those extra yards when he knows that the title is not even in the picture in the short term? We should get the answer to that this season. More importantly, though, with Hamilton being 38 when his contract expires, it does appear that these two years might be his last in F1.

George Russell is slowly but surely taking over

There is this internal dynamic at Mercedes that is seemingly not getting talked about enough. The team had already put a progression plan in place when it signed George Russell to drive for the team. The British driver has shown frontrunner potential. He has the pedigree for sure and it does appear that he also has the talent and tenacity to take over from Lewis Hamilton once the F1 legend decides to hang up his gloves.

Russell has been very complimentary of his compatriot and has talked about not ruffling the feathers too much. If the young British driver keeps on extracting the maximum out of the car, however, then he will keep challenging Hamilton more and more.

Russell certainly did that in Saudi Arabia when he opted for a more conventional setup that allowed him to outqualify and outscore his illustrious teammate. If the young Briton continues to produce performances where he outperforms Hamilton, Mercedes might be more than willing to provide even more backing to the youngster as he is surely the future of the team.

If that happens, we could see a situation where Hamilton goes through something similar to what Sebastian Vettel went through at Ferrari. Charles Leclerc's second year on the Italian team in 2020 became more about the young driver taking over from his illustrious teammate.

In all probability, the 2023 season could be Lewis Hamilton's last season in F1. We could see Mercedes putting their progression plan to fruition as George Russell takes over from Hamilton and becomes their lead driver.

If one looks at the ecosystem at Mercedes, one could see an aging Hamilton, a surging Russell, and an underperforming team. It is, therefore, highly likely that Hamilton will drive out the next two years of his contract and won't win another title in his career.