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Manchester City’s win in Munich is the second instance this year that an English team has beaten the European champions at their home. And ironically on both these occasions the win did not have a positive effect on either of the English teams, as Arsenal anyway bowed out of the tournament on aggregate, and now City qualified second in the group.
On multiple occasions this season pundits have proclaimed Manchester city to have the best squad in the league and the most likely title contender, and now as the settling-in period for Pellegrini ends, 4th place and 6 points from the top looks pretty good for the “noisy neighbors”; particularly as Arsenal face City and Chelsea in the next 2 games, potentially dropping 6 points.
From an injuries front, Pellegrini would be reassured by captain Kompany’s performance against Southampton after a long time out. Though Clichy and Nastasic are still unavailable, David Silva has finally returned to the squad; though it seems highly unlikely that he will be risked after his recent return in the Bayern game.
Manuel Pellegrini is quite well known to prefer a two man strike-force, especially looking at his 4-2-2-2 at Villareal or his initial 4-4-1-1 at Madrid and Malaga. But with the riches that City possesses in the attacking department, it was all about his choice of the duo upfront rather than the shape. With Sergio Aguero establishing himself as one of the best in the world at the moment, his partner has changed from the initially preferred Dzeko to the now in-from Negredo. It is the Spaniard Negredo’s role that has now become so crucial, as Pellegrini prefers his midfield of Toure and Fernandinho to sit deep and hence faces the possibility of being outnumbered in midfield.
So Negredo is played as the striker who falls deep in midfield and either wins the aerial challenges or tracks with the opposition’s holding midfielder; it is the former criteria that the Spaniard has been good at. Against Southampton it was Lovren and Fonte who were pulled out of the defence to mark Negredo, and against Arsenal it is sure to the role given to Koscienly. The Frenchman is the quicker of the two Centre Backs and will be able to track back quickly if caught out. But it is here that Aguero will prosper when allowed to run directly at Mertersacker alone through the centre. The German defender has been one of the best in the League this season when you consider positioning and tackling, but Aguero’s sheer pace and twists due to his low centre of gravity will surely have the beating of Mertersacker.
It is under such conditions where Wenger’s midfield choice comes to play, as both Arteta and Flamini will be available for contention next to Aaron Ramsey in the centre. In earlier seasons, this away game at the Etihad would typically have been one of those occasions where Wenger would chose to play Ramsey on the flanks instead, but considering the Welshman’s exploits this season and more importantly Pellegrini’s tactic of playing deeper midfielders with 4 attackers rather than pacy attacking midfielders/dribblers, Ramsey will now doubt start the game. Flamini is often preferred in games such as Marseille and Napoli (home) where the opposition has a quarry of pacy dribblers like Ayew, Thauvin or Reus playing behind the main striker. But against a team like City where often the most important thing is to maintain the shape at the back and defend, the likes of Mikel Arteta would be preferred over Flamini.
While the striker’s department is well decorated at the Etihad, the wingers at the manager’s disposal are also varied. And though Milner slotted in the winner on Tuesday and the best of the lot David Silva is back, still Pelegrini would be looking to stick to his current choice of Nasri and Navas. Though Nasri’s main role has been to slot into the No.10 position when City are in possession (when they are not in possession, this role is taken up by Negredo), one can very well argue that Silva could play a similar role effectively too.
An easier decision for Pellegrini would be to play Jesus Navas on the right. The Spaniard has been accurate in his crossings and runs this season, but what will be more dangerous for Gibbs on Saturday would be Navas’s wide positioning which allows Zabaleta to make much narrower runs on the overlap. The overlapping fullback on the other side would be Kolorov, who needs no invitation at all to attack with a narrow Nasri.
While all seems well in City’s attack, their main point of inconsistencies in terms of injuries and tactics has been their defence. Kompany’s presence was the only savior against Southampton, as the captain put in plenty of last ditch tackles. But even the veteran Belgian was left dead on his tracks couple of times by the likes Osvaldo and Rodriguez. And much more interesting than Kompany’s return is the central defencive pairing of Demichiles and Kompany. Both being towering in presence are often quite keen to jump out of defence for aerial challenges. Demichiles was much more responsive to such tackles when Kompany was injured, but now the captain seems to have the lead in that regard.
But it is the grounded stats that would cause worry in the City camp as both of these 2 are quite slow on the turn when the ball is played in behind the defence. This was seen when Osvaldo dropped into the area in between the lines and allowed the likes of Rodriguez and Lallana to run into the channels. The pairing of Demichiles and Kompany in that regard is ironically quite similar to the Spurs’ pair of Dawson and Kaboul that got battered for 6 by City.
Another liability visible in City’s defence is Kolorov’s defensive frailty. The left back is often found in a much wider position while City defends a counter attack. This huge gap left between Kolorov and the CB’s will be particularly dangerous against the likes of someone like Walcott who will look to get in behind the defence every time. In fact both of City’s fullbacks are often caught in attack and as exploited by Southampton’s CB’s: the best ball forward would be to find an attacker running in just behind the City fullbacks.
This game certainly would be one of the most crucial ones, as both Chelsea and Manchester United are set to face much easier opposition in the weekend. Yaya Toure would have been my choice of Player to watch out for, but based on the trend these days: fully expect to see Samir Nasri celebrating a goal against his previous employers.
