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Arsene Wenger manager of Arsenal (R) and Ivan Gazidis, CEO of Arsenal (L) in discussion during a Champions League in 2011. It remains to be seen if the pair will invest heavily in reinforcements this summer. (Getty Images)
When I look at Arsenal‘s outlook in this season’s transfer window, so many of the old money related clichés come to mind. “A penny saved is a penny earned”, “Take care of the pennies and the pounds will take care of themselves” and, last but not least, “It’s time to pay the piper”.
If you really think about it, it was never about spending a lot of money. Let us quickly review the recent spate of transfers that have weakened Arsenal. The decline started in earnest with the sale of Cesc Fabregas and Samir Nasri. (Well, some of us trace it back to the loss of Patrick Viera, but the decline wasn’t precipitous yet). Fab was flirting for the second time with Barcelona and they had progressed way beyond “tapping up” Fab. The smart thing for Wenger would have been to let Fab go early and up Nasri’s wages towards the top of the Gunners scale.
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Nasri, that little weasel, would have stayed. The Fab transfer fee could have easily paid to shore up the Gunners weaknesses – an additional 2 million would have brought Mark Schwarzer, an additional 4 million would have netted Christopher Samba. The total spent on them would still have left an ample surplus from the Fab sale.
Instead, we had that 8-2 wakeup call and panic buying that netted Mikel Arteta, Per Mertesacker, Andre Santos, plus Yossi Benayoun on loan. Here is the big kicker. We might have competed for titles with Nasri, Samba and Schwarzer in the fold. Schwarzer at the end of his career would have been the ideal teacher to bring along Scezney at the right pace. That kid was a serious talent and putting so much on his shoulders, with a porous backline to boot may well have destroyed him.
That would have definitely shown Robin van Persie that the Gunners had ambition and there would have been no reason for him to leave. Fast forward a year. We lost van Persie, but there was no earthly reason to sell Alex Song – for a song. The poor guy was getting shortchanged at about 40k a week, while perennial trainer’s table occupants like Tomas Rosicky and Abou Diaby were netting double that.
It isn’t like Arsenal weren’t spending – look at Lukas Podolski, Santi Cazorla, Olivier Giroud, and Nacho Monreal. The problem is that players aren’t plug compatible and one can see how that eye-pleasing Gunner style is no more.
This past season’s “near death” experience may have finally roused even Silent Stan to open up the pocket book. What did I say? “It’s time to pay the piper”. Despite all the rumors flying around about Ivan Gazidis waving 70 million pounds in reporters’ faces, the problems of the transfer market are the same; teams like Manchester City, Chelsea, PSG, Real Madrid and Barca, now add Monaco (tax free for the players) will spend silly money.
The Gunners have always been about valuations. That means we don’t get a look in until the silly money has been spent. Mind you, it would be completely reckless to splash out that kind of money, Silent Stan’s personal net worth notwithstanding. The managerial musical chairs has added to the delay, with Jose Mourinho and Manuel Pellegrini in place, but with Real and PSG still hunting. So, Gunner fans may well be gnashing their teeth till the wee hours of August 31 or another 8-2 hiding, whichever comes first.
Setting aside all my well founded pessimism, what could the Gunners do with 70 million? The short answer would be “not enough”. A slightly better answer would be “first, get rid of some deadwood and up that purse a wee bit”. Deadwood may be a strong word and the Gunners have actually lightened their wage structure a bit by releasing several players.
For all of Arsenal’s parsimony on the transfer market, the Gunners have one of the highest player payrolls in the league; a lot higher than some of the high rollers. However, Arsenal can raise much needed funds by selling Gervinho, Aaron Ramsey (unlikely), Lukasz Fabianski, Rosicky and Diaby – just the savings on health care for the last two may be a small fortune. Will they be bold enough to trade up for others – lead footed Mertesacker leaps to mind, perhaps a replacement for Bacary Sagna. The Gunners probably need at least 100 million, perhaps 120. That is because they need players on each line, with multiple needs in the back line.
Arsenal have been heavily-linked with Everton’s Fellaini. (Getty Images)
Goalkeeper – Putting too much on Szczesny’s young shoulders has at least derailed him, if not destroyed him. We already whiffed on Martin Steklenberg, who would have been my first choice. Among the big names available would be Julio Cesar, though probably past his best and one has got to see how he does at the Confederations Cup. A smash and grab for Michel Vorm or Asmir Begovic may be better.
Defence – Central defence is the biggest need, especially with Barca looking to poach Laurent Koscielny. He is no Nemanja Vidic, but without his two last-game winners, the Gunners would have missed the Champions League the past two years. You don’t mess with that kind of luck. We already whiffed on Kolo Toure. Samba has had a dip in form and could be available at a bargain price. Two good defenders would probably cost about 25 million. Sagna seems to want out, which would leave a hole at right full back. Perhaps Danny Alves.
Midfield – Plenty of creative playmakers, but no defensive midfield muscle. If rumors are to be believed, we are going after Marouane Fellaini – Hallelujah! He would be my first choice. 23 million to trigger his release clause; may be close to 30 by the time the deal is done. But Tottenham Hotspur target Paulinho?
Striker – The strongest rumors are that Arsenal are going to meet Real’s asking price for Gonzalo Higuain, about 30 million. The other is about Wayne Rooney, which would send an absolutely disheartening message, in my mind – namely, we give United our best player (van Persie) and they give us their one-time best and current reject (Rooney). This statement would also cover the other strong rumor – Nani to Arsenal. Like we need another fast winger!
My first choice is actually not a big name. It is Christian Benteke. The guy is big, strong, quick, skilled with his feet, can play with his back to the goal or facing front and, to top it all, he has proven his ability to score in the Premier League. He wouldn’t be a popular choice among the fans; besides, Villa have wrapped him up by setting his value in the silly money category, 40 million.
There is one very strong quality about Higuain that the Gunners could use. His strike rate is an unbelievable 32%, which is actually down from the previous year. That means every third shot he hits finds the back of the net. Of course, this is mostly as a sub, being fed by Real’s formidable playmakers like Mesut Ozil, Luka Modric and the like. I can already dream of describing Arsenal games without the inevitable word, “profligacy”, cropping up.
You add up the numbers and we are pretty much in the 100-120 million range. Will Galzidis and Wenger finally spend after so many years of crying wolf? How long before the managerial seats get filled? When will the silly money finally be tapped out so the real trading can begin? Most of all, will the Gunners, for once, carve out their space early in the transfer market? Or will we be dumpster diving after an 8-2 hiding? Speaking of hiding, there is no place left to hide. We gotta purchase or perish.
It’s time to pay the piper!
