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Experts predict how many points are needed to win EPL title and finish in top four this season


The predicted final points tally is one of the lowest in EPL history

Leicester City EPL title points to win table 2015-16
Cna Leicester City win the Premier League title this season?

It is safe to say that there has never quite been a surprising Premier League season like the current 2015/16 season. The established order has been upset time and again over the past eight months and the competitiveness of the league has been highlighted almost every week.

The traditional top four of Arsenal, Chelsea, Manchester City and Manchester United are scattered all over the top half of the table. Teams such as West Ham United and Southampton have cut the gap and performed well against top teams, especially Slaven Bilic’s Hammers. 

Tottenham Hotspur are in second place ahead of north London rivals Arsenal while Manchester City are fourth. United are sixth while defending champions Chelsea are in 10th!

But the biggest surprise was Leicester City. Down in 20th place a year ago, the Foxes now find themselves in first place with a five-point lead over the Spurs. Claudio Ranieri came, he saw and looks all set to conquer England after missing out with Chelsea more than a decade ago.

2015/16 EPL Table
#TeamGames PlayedPoints
1Leicester City3166
2Tottenham Hotspur3161
4Manchester City3051
5West Ham3050
6Manchester United3050

EPL champions will be crowned if they get 76 points

Decision Technology, a UK-based company that deals with sports analytics, analysed how many points would be required for a team to be crowned champions this season. By their prediction, table toppers Leicester City need just 10 more points from seven games. 

The company fed a number of simulations into an algorithm to deduce how many points are required to win the league and the magic number is 76.

Man Utd Liverpool Top 4
Will we see both Liverpool and Manchester United outside the Top 4 again?

The last 10 seasons have seen an average of 84.7 points needed to be crowned champions. Chelsea’s triumph in 2005/06 saw them win the title with 91 points while the lowest total was Manchester United in 2010/11 when the Red Devils won with just 80 points. 

If 76 points are enough to win the title this season, that would only have given a team a top four spot in the 2007/08 season. And Decision Technology predicted that this season would see teams who get at least 67 points finish in the top four and qualify for the Champions League – the same points Arsenal needed in 2005/06 to finish fourth and make the Champions League playoffs.

Points to win EPL Title and finish in Top 4 in last 10 seasons
SeasonChampionsPoints to winPoints for Top 4
2006/07Manchester United8968
2007/08Manchester United8776
2008/09Manchester United9072
2010/11Manchester United8068
2011/12Manchester City8969
2012/13Manchester United8973
2013/14Manchester City8679

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