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Football, generally, is becoming more predictable. The financial structure of the modern game, certainly in all the major European leagues, is such that the rich get richer and that, unless a billionaire emerges to fund a revolution, the higher reaches of the table are dominated by the same couple of sides year after year.
The Premier League is fortunate, perhaps, in that it has a clear big three – Manchester United, Manchester City and Chelsea – whose wealth far outstrips the rest. Other countries have a big two (Spain and perhaps Germany, although Bayern Munich’s resources far outstrip Borussia Dortmund’s and the Bundesliga could soon become a one-club league) and others a big one (France and Italy – although Italian football is so chaotic at the moment it’s hard to be entirely sure).
But where it is most fortunate, for next season at least, is that each of those big three teams have just changed their manager, and that means that, in 2013-14, the next three clubs – Arsenal, Tottenham and Liverpool – each have a great opportunity. This is not an open league in the way the league title was open in the sixties, but it is as open as it has been in well over a decade.
Sir Alex Ferguson offered a constant; he was a fixed point in a moving world, his influence, at least for the past two decades, was such that even when United’s squad appeared weaker than that of their rivals, there was never a thought of capitulation; they would always challenge. David Moyes may be able to extend that aura of invincibility. He did an excellent job at Everton and is without any doubt a very good coach; but he is not Ferguson and he has not managed a club of United’s stature before. Logical as his appointment was, he does not bring the same sense of inevitability: for the first time in 20 years, there is a possibility of United stuttering and finishing only fourth or fifth.
Who knows how Manuel Pellegrini will adapt at City? Again, he has an excellent past record, even if his one season in charge of a genuine European giant, Real Madrid, ended in failure, but he has no experience of English football, and he will be taking over a squad that will in all probability have undergone further surgery this summer: Ferran Soriano, the chief executive of City, has spoken of “three or four” major signings. They will take time to adjust. The return of Jose Mourinho to Chelsea, meanwhile, is fascinating, but signals yet another change in philosophy and so more upheaval.
Arsenal, Tottenham and Liverpool, meanwhile, all have a measure of stability and can build on what is already there. If Jack Wilshere and Abou Diaby can stay fit, Arsenal are very close to being truly competitive, although a dynamic midfielder, a centre-forward and a reliable goalkeeper are what they truly require.
Tottenham could do with Sandro remaining fit but other than that are a centre-forward or two and – perhaps – a deep central creator from being potential champions. And even Liverpool, if they complete the signings of Simon Mignolet and Henrikh Mkhytarian, and hold on to Luis Suarez, probably need only another central defender and maybe a holding midfielder to have a serious chance.
Competitiveness doesn’t come easily to modern football, but the Premier League next season could be extremely enjoyable.
