Could Saquon Barkley’s contract break Derrick Henry’s guaranteed money ceiling? NFL agent explains state of negotiations

This off-season, running backs Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, and Tony Pollard were all franchise tagged to stop them from hitting free agency.

Each running back had career years with Jacobs leading the league in rushing, Pollard having his first 1,000-yard rushing season, and Barkley coming back from a poor 2021 season.

As of right now, only Pollard has signed his franchise tag, with Jacobs and Barkley hoping to secure long-term deals.

Joel Corry of CBS Sports thinks that Barkley could break Derrick Henry's contract of $25.5 million fully guaranteed (signed in 2020), by getting more than $27 million.

"The last running back to be given a franchise tag before this year was Derrick Henry by the Titans in 2020. He signed a four-year, $50 million contract averaging $12.5 million per year worth a maximum of $51 million through incentives. Henry had $25.5 million fully guaranteed, which was the first two years or 51% of the deal.

"Based on Henry's contract, Barkley could reasonably expect around $27 million to be fully guaranteed in a four-year deal despite the depressed state of the running back market."

Corry also believes that it wouldn't be a surprise if Jacobs misses the start of training camp and holds out.

"It wouldn't be a surprise for Jacobs to miss the start of Raiders training camp on July 25 if he doesn't get a long-term deal by the deadline. Jacobs has yet to sign his franchise tender. Some unsigned franchise players have missed part or most of training camp and the preseason partially to protest not getting a long-term deal and to try to minimize the risk of a serious injury."

How does Saquon Barkley's rushing yards per game compare to other elite RBs?

Saquon Barkley during NFC Divisional Playoffs - New York Giants v Philadelphia Eagles

Saquon Barkley has averaged 70.8 rushing yards per game over his five-year career. More than 25 running backs have a higher average in their careers, which makes his contract situation even more interesting.

The six current NFL players that have a higher average than Barkley include Josh Jacobs (79.0), Ezekiel Elliott (80.2), Derrick Henry (81.7), Dalvin Cook (82.1), Nick Chubb (84.5) and Jonathan Taylor (89.3.)

Barkley has a higher career average than running backs such as Joe Mixon, Christian McCaffrey, Aaron Jones, and Miles Sanders. He has rushed for a total of 4,289 yards in five seasons in 60 career games played.

With numbers like these, it seems beyond a doubt that Saquon Barkley deserves a big contract, but the risks that present a franchise are causing a stalemate.

We will see if Barkley and Jacobs will land a deal, sign their franchise tags or potentially sit out in the coming weeks.