5 reasons why India will lose to South Africa

India’s defence of cricket’s premier crown started with a bang as the country had a blast on Sunday night. Monday morning’s IPL 2015 auctions further ensured cricket continues to dominate headlines. India are on a high after beating Pakistan and will continue so till the end of this week, when they play tournament favourites South Africa.Here are five reasons why South Africa will bring India down to earth in this massive Pool B encounter and what India should look to do different:

#1 Opening encounters

The spring on Indian steps is also due to strong awareness that same Sunday, the mighty Springboks were brought down to earth by minnows Zimbabwe. Elton Chigumbura’s men first reduced the Proteas top order to 83/4 and then themselves amassed 277 runs versus, supposedly, the best bowling attack in the game. Dale Steyn and Morne Morkel combined went for 6.5 runs per over as South Africa managed a win only thanks to David Miller and JP Duminy playing big knocks.

That result, and India’s complete annihilation of Pakistan, ensures the upcoming encounter starts even stevens. But two players coming to the party was enough for the Proteas to beat Zimbabwe. In contrast, India’s entire bowling lineup and three batsmen clicked while none from Pakistan’s did in India’s win. Even Misbah-ul-Haq’s lusty knock didn't have a strike rate of 100 or more – the minimum what Pakistan required. Simply put, South Africa are no Pakistan and India will need to play out of their skins to even make a match of it

#2 Historical trends

India seldom win all games of a big event. The two occasions when they won all games, enroute to lifting the cup, were surprisingly, outside Asia; 1985 Benson and Hedges World Championship of cricket in Australia and the 2013 Champions Trophy in England. Another notable inclusion being 2003 World cup in South Africa when Ganguly’s boys won eight games in a row on their way to final.

South Africa are known to peak and have an impeccable record in group stages of a World Cup. Before mid-Feb, in 2015, India struggled to even come close to winning a game in any format in Australian and that cannot change overnight. As an Indian you wish if India have to lose a game, they rather lose now, than in knockout stages.

The fact that India and South Africa have played each other thrice in the World Cups and each time the African nation has come out on top will weigh heavily on India’s shoulders.

#3 Head to head WC

In forty years history of the quadrennial showpiece event, there is only one team whom the men in blue have never ever beaten – South Africa – with a 0-3 scoreline. In all the said encounters (1992, 1999 and 2011), the Indian batsman lost way from positions of strength and scored 25 runs lesser than what would have been a winning score. Which also means, all three games ran close and it was one over which titled the game – fresh in memory is the one sent down by Ashish Nehra in 2011.

What people conveniently forget is, in that game, the batsmen were running riot at 267/1 (after 40 overs) and then lost next nine wickets for measly 29 runs. This collapse effectively swung the match. It was to credit of captain MS Dhoni, bowlers and fielders that they kept the match alive till the last over of the game in belter of a track. South Africa have the same seize over India as the latter have over Pakistan – last Sunday was a live example of how tough it is to shake off such shackles.

If you have to look outside World Cup, then in last ten India-South Africa encounters with results, it's 7-3 to the rainbow nation. Outside India, in overall encounters, it reads 34-12 in favour of them too. Simply put, South Africa start 65% favourites when they play India in such conditions.

#4 Conditions at Melbourne

The MCG is sell out for this Sunday and will be sell out for the last Sunday of March 2015, when the World Cup final will be played. The pitch typically offers a 280-300 par score. Last time India played (around a month ago) they scored 267 and lost in the penultimate over to Australia. Later in the same ground, the hosts played two games and batting first, made mincemeat of UAE in a warm up game and then England in their first Pool A encounter, with equal ruthlessness.

The ball does a fair bit early under the lights and 280-300 is very much defendable. The thing to note was in the games played in 2015, all slow bowlers and part-timers struggled at MCG – Ashwin, Raina, Moin Ali, Joe Root, Glenn Maxwell or Steve Smith – notable exception being Axar Patel. It's no secret which team has a superior pace attack to take advantage of the conditions and which team has the weaker batting prowess versus fast bowlers.

India’s record at MCG between 1980 till 1992 was good with a 7-5 win-loss ratio. However after the turn of the century its 1-5 in all six games vs Australia. Fine reading says a few of those hands went very close too, but South Africa come into this WC as one of the best teams around. Expect no mercy!

#5 Dhoni\'s reluctance to changes

Captain Dhoni prefers continuing with a winning combination, if he has the slightest of reasons to do. The opening pacers were amongst wickets and bowled good lines vs Pakistan, after an iffy start; Mohit and Ashwin came to bowl at difficult stages of the game and were sensational; Jadeja (returning from injury) is getting better. There is reason to play all of them, to get into good bowling lines and rhythm before the big games. But South Africa are no Pakistan. When was the last time India bowled a quality opposition out for 224? Lightning won't strike twice, and definitely not this Sunday.

Amongst batsmen, as has been the case entire Australian tour, only two to three batsmen perform in each inning. In last encounter at Melbourne it was Rohit Sharma and Suresh Raina; last Sunday at Adelaide, it was Shikhar Dhawan, Virat Kohli and Raina. Rahane has scored in most other games. You cannot win the World Cup with two three batsmen performing day in and out. So there is a need to put some depth in the batting, before it costs them a knockout game.

In the large scheme of things, this game will have no bearing on the World Cup campaign. There is little sense in peaking early and stretching to the point of getting injuries. The World Cup will be won by the team which stays fittest and peaks in their last three games. Also, after this game, India will have four easy group games to contend with; versus Ireland, West Indies, United Arab Emirates and Zimbabwe. Hence, they must look at the opportunity of testing out a couple of reserve players in a big game.

Based on how the slow bowlers struggled at MCG this year, it makes sense to play Axar and Stuart Binny in this game – at the cost of Ravindra Jadeja and Ravichandran Ashwin - and then revert back to the original XI after this game. Axar was India’s best bowler during the disastrous tri-series down under and provides an X factor. Binny gives depth in batting and lower order hitting and can send down 7+ overs. He shouldn’t be discarded so early as he, potentially, could be the vital cog in later stages of the event.

#6 Conclusion

Both teams will go unchanged and both will want to bat first, should they win toss. South Africa will want to make a statement of intent in this World Cup and will come out charged up to expose India’s batting and bowling deficiencies. This game may not be a very close encounter, history will repeat itself and India will fall short. The country will be brought down to earth and India’s WC campaign will actually start after this game – with more balance, purpose and less jingoism or over the top excitement.