Astros vs. Marlins: Game 1 prediction, odds, injuries, and picks - August 4, 2025

The Houston Astros (62-50) will be pitted against the Miami Marlins on the road, with just two wins in their last 10 games. They were handed a series sweep against the Boston Red Sox over the weekend. The injury-depleted roster must keep winning, as its AL West lead is down to 2.5 games.

The Marlins (55-55) are outside contenders for the NL Wild Card spots, with 6.0 games behind. But they won't be afraid of the gap, having won 13 of their last 17 games, with a recent sweep of the New York Yankees.

Astros vs. Marlins Game 1: Betting Odds

Time: Monday, 6:40 p.m. EDT at loanDepot Park

Money Line: Astros (-104), Marlins (-115)

Total Runs: Over/Under 8.5 runs

Astros vs. Marlins Game 1: Injuries & Lineups

Injuries

Astros

• Brendan Rodgers: 60-Day IL (oblique),
• Pedro Leon: 60-Day IL (knee),
• Brandon Walter: 15-Day IL (elbow),
• Lance McCullers: 15-Day IL (finger),
• Isaac Paredes: 10-Day IL (hamstring),
• Jake Meyers: 10-Day IL (calf),
• Zach Dezenzo: 60-Day IL (hand),
• Yordan Alvarez: 60-Day IL (hand),
• Shawn Dubin: 15-Day IL (forearm),
• Spencer Arrighetti: 60-Day IL (thumb),
• Ronel Blanco: 60-Day IL (elbow),
• Hayden Wesneski: 60-Day IL (elbow),
• Luis Garcia: 60-Day IL (elbow),
• Cristian Javier: 60-Day IL (elbow),
• J.P. France: 60-Day IL (shoulder)

Marlins

• Derek Hill: 10-Day IL (finger),
• Jesus Tinoco: 60-Day IL (forearm),
• Connor Norby: 10-Day IL (wrist),
• Max Meyer: 60-Day IL (hip),
• Ryan Weathers: 60-Day IL (lat),
• Griffin Conine: 60-Day IL (arm),
• Andrew Nardi: 60-Day IL (back),
• Braxton Garrett: 60-Day IL (elbow)

Expected Lineups

Astros

1. SS Jeremy Pena R
2. DH Jose Altuve R
3. LF J. Sanchez L
4. 3B C. Correa R
5. 1B C. Walker R
6. C Yainer Diaz R
7. CF T. Trammell L
8. RF Cam Smith R
9. 2B M. Dubon R

Marlins

1. 2B X. Edwards S
2. C A. Ramirez R
3. LF Kyle Stowers L
4. SS Otto Lopez R
5. DH Liam Hicks L
6. 1B T. Johnston L
7. 3B G. Pauley L
8. RF Dane Myers R
9. CF Jakob Marsee L

Astros vs. Marlins Game 1: Picks and prediction

The Astros' lineup, a top three in the league with a .256 batting average, was held to just five runs in three games by the Red Sox. Their best performer in the last 10 stretch has been Yainer Diaz with two doubles and two homers. They will be up against Marlins starter Sandy Alcantara (6-9, 6.36 ERA).

Alcantara battles Astros' waiver pick-up Jason Alexander (1-1, 7.36 ERA). The Marlins have a .236 batting average in the last 10 games but have been outscored by 15 runs. Thus, expect another close game with Miami edging this one.

Prediction: Marlins 4, Astros 3

Picks: Marlins (-115), Under 8.5 runs