Brewers vs. Reds: Game 1, prediction, odds, injuries and picks

The Cincinnati Reds and Milwaukee Brewers were each expected to contribute to the NL Central pennant chase entering the regular season. However, after six games played, neither squad looks ready to compete with the Chicago Cubs or St. Louis Cardinals for bragging rights.

While still very early, this extended four-game series between the division rivals will serve as a huge litmus test, with the teams only scheduled to meet nine more times following Sunday's finale. Nestor Cortes - fresh off one of the worst starts of his career - enters this matchup as the MLB odds favorite over Nick Lodolo to get the Brew Crew back into the win column.

Brewers vs. Reds recent form and records

The Reds enter tonight's series opener 2-4 and $221 in the red for $100-per-bet MLB bettors after failing to win either of their first two home series against the San Francisco Giants or Texas Rangers. Embarrassingly, Elly De La Cruz and his mates enter this tilt on the short end of back-to-back 1-0 shutout losses, which have seen the offense go scoreless in 19 consecutive innings.

Even after walking the Royals off on Wednesday in extras, there wasn't much to write home about for Milwaukee with the reigning division champs getting swept in New York by the Yankees.

Pat Murphy's troops, however, bounced back with a series win against the Royals, taking the final two games after getting clobbered 11-1 in the opener. It's resulted in a -$237 return on investment for their wagering supporters, with the under paying out in their only two wins.

Injuries

Cincinnati

Tyler Stephenson C 10 Day IL - Undisclosed
Austin Hays LF 10 Day IL - Calf
Alexis Diaz RP 15 Day IL - Undisclosed
Andrew Abbott SP 15 Day IL - Undisclosed
Rhett Lowder SP 15 Day IL - Undisclosed
Julian Aguiar SP 60 Day IL - Elbow
Brandon Williamson SP 60 Day IL - Undisclosed

Milwaukee

Blake Perkins CF 10 Day IL - Shin
Aaron Civale SP 15 Day IL - Hamstring
Brandon Woodruff SP 15 Day IL - Shoulder
Nick Mears RP 15 Day IL - Illness
Aaron Ashby SP 15 Day IL - Oblique
Tobias Myers SP 15 Day IL - Oblique
DL Hall SP 60 Day IL - Lat
Robert Gasser SP 60 Day IL - Elbow

Starting Pitchers

Nick Lodolo (1-0, 3.00 ERA in 2025)

Lodolo went 5-2 with a 3.56 ERA and 71:16 K/BB ratio over 60.2 IP on the road last year
Lodolo is 1-0 with a 3.38 ERA and 25:8 K/BB ratio in 24.0 IP thrown against the Brewers
Lodolo gave up 3 hits and 3 ER in 5.1 IP with 4 K and 3 BB against Milwaukee in 2024

Nestor Cortes (0-1, 36.00 ERA in 2025)

Cortes went 5-5 with a 3.11 ERA and 83:14 K/BB ratio over 89.2 IP at home last year (NYY)
Cortes is 0-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 4:1 K/BB ratio in 7.0 IP thrown against the Reds
Cortes gave up 4 hits and 1 ER in 7.0 IP with 4 K and 1 BB against Cincinnati in 2022

Must-Watch Hitters

Cincinnati

Matt McLain found himself in a heater before the Reds were dominated by the Rangers' pitching staff in the final two games. The infielder had hit safely in three straight games and went yard three times. He's +550 to hit a home run at DK for the series opener, and +225 to plate at least one RBI. It's been rare to this point, but when the Reds' offense has produced, McLain has been one of the catalysts.

Milwaukee

Jackson Chourio introduced himself to MLB prop bettors with a memorable rookie campaign. The outfielder has picked right back up where he left off, slashing .286/.286/.786 over 28 at-bats with one home run and four RBIs.

While yet to hit safely in his prior three appearances against Lodolo, he's done so in five straight and will step into the box off a three-hit performance that saw him reach the cheap seats for the first time.

Brewers vs. Reds Betting Odds

Thursday 4/3	Money Line	Run Line	Total Runs
Cincinnati Reds	+100	-1.5 +164	O 8 -112
Milwaukee Brewers	-120	+1.5 -198	U 8 -108

Brewers vs. Reds expert picks and game prediction

This is a tough game to handicap, with the Reds' offense recently disappearing and Nestor Cortes getting peppered by his former team in his first start for the Brewers. However, the lone constant has been Nick Lodolo, who was rock-solid in his first start against a white-hot Giants team.

While Miller Park has been a nightmare venue for Cincy - they've won just three of their last 10 games there - they hold the advantage in both the starting pitching matchup, along with the bullpen.

Brewers vs. Reds Prediction: Cincinnati Wins 5-3

About the author

Mike earned a Bachelor of Science in Human Biology from the University of Kansas with dreams of becoming an orthopedic surgeon and team physician. However, his career path took a different turn as he ventured into sports handicapping, writing, and editing.

While preparing for the MCAT, Mike applied to contribute to a site offering free sports picks, which proved to be a pivotal step. His success there garnered interest from larger platforms and startups. Despite his efforts, organic chemistry derailed his medical school ambitions, and he chose to shift fully into sports betting and fantasy sports content creation.

Over a 20-year career, Mike has navigated the highs and lows of professional sports betting. His experience spans working on a late-night sports talk radio show, covering the Chicago Rush in the Arena Football League, managing a content distribution company, owning and operating a vape shop, and creating one of the first profitable DFS affiliate sites—an endeavor that helped buy his current home.

When offline, Mike enjoys working out his green thumb, coaching his son’s sports teams, hosting tea parties with his daughter, and relaxing with his wife and friends. A die-hard Kansas Jayhawks fan, he also proudly bleeds Cubbie blue.

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Edited by Gio Vergara