Guardians vs. Mets: Game 1 prediction, odds, injuries, and picks

The Mets will be looking to capitalize on their home-field dominance as they open a three-game series against the Guardians on Monday at Citi Field. New York has been formidable at home (38-18), powered by an offense that ranks in the top five in NL slugging.

Cleveland is trying to maintain the second spot in the AL Central but has been vulnerable when giving up home runs, holding a 27-44 record in such games. This will be the first head-to-head clash between the two teams this season.

Starting Pitchers

Slade Cecconi – Guardians

Cecconi holds a 5-4 record with a 3.77 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 63 strikeouts across 76.1 innings this season. In his last start on July 28 against Colorado, he delivered seven innings of three-run ball, striking out three in a no-decision.

Sean Manaea – Mets

Manaea has impressed in limited action, posting a 1-1 record with a 2.08 ERA, 0.87 WHIP and 22 strikeouts over 17.1 innings. He last pitched on July 29 versus San Diego, allowing one run over five innings with four strikeouts and no walks in a no-decision.

Hot Hitters to Watch

Jose Ramirez – Cleveland Guardians

Ramirez has been on a tear, going deep in back-to-back games, including a two-run shot in Sunday’s loss to Minnesota. He’s now slashing .302 with 23 home runs, 61 RBIs, 71 runs and 32 stolen bases. He continues to anchor the Guardians offense from the heart of the lineup.

Pete Alonso – New York Mets

Alonso crushed a three-run homer and added a double in Saturday’s 12-6 win over the Giants. The Mets’ slugger is hitting .260 with 24 home runs and 86 RBIs, providing his usual power punch in the middle of the order.

Injury Report

New York Mets:

Jesse Winker – 60-Day IL (back)
Max Kranick – 60-Day IL (elbow)
Brandon Waddell – 15-Day IL (hip)
Dedniel Nunez – 60-Day IL (elbow)
Tylor Megill – 60-Day IL (elbow)
Paul Blackburn – 15-Day IL (shoulder)
Griffin Canning – 60-Day IL (Achilles)
Jose Siri – 60-Day IL (shin)
Danny Young – 60-Day IL (elbow)
A.J. Minter – 60-Day IL (lat)
Nick Madrigal – 60-Day IL (shoulder)
Drew Smith – 60-Day IL (elbow)
Christian Scott – 60-Day IL (elbow)

Cleveland Guardians:

Lane Thomas – 10-Day IL (foot)
Will Brennan – 60-Day IL (forearm)
Andrew Walters – 60-Day IL (lat)
Ben Lively – 60-Day IL (forearm)
John Means – 60-Day IL (elbow)
Sam Hentges – 60-Day IL (shoulder)

Current Odds

Run Line: Guardians +1.5 (−139) | Mets −1.5 (+114)
Total: Over 8 (−119) | Under 8 (−102)
Moneyline: Guardians +151 | Mets −186

Final Score Prediction & Best Bets

Final Score Prediction: Mets 5, Guardians 3

Best Bets:

Mets Moneyline (−186) – With Manaea’s recent performance and New York’s home strength, backing the favorite feels dependable.
Under 8 Total Runs (−102) – Neither starter allows big innings regularly; this figures to be a low-scoring pitchers’ duel.

Same-Game Parlay: Mets ML + Manaea Over 5.5 Strikeouts – Manaea averages over 11 Ks per 9 innings, and the Mets’ depth offers additional value in this combo play.

About the author

Shubham Soni is a dedicated baseball journalist at Sportkeeda with a deep passion for Major League Baseball. Specializing in player profiles, in-depth analysis, and trade updates, He provides readers with expert insights and strategic advice to enhance their fantasy sports experience. With a keen focus on player performances, game previews, and betting trends.

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Edited by Chaitanya Prakash

Guardians vs. Mets: Game 1 prediction, odds, injuries, and picks - August 4, 2025