Mets vs. Diamondbacks: Game 3, prediction, odds, injuries and picks

The New York Mets and Arizona Diamondbacks will gun for bragging rights at Chase Field on Wednesday with the series knotted up at a game apiece. New York will attempt to return the favor after Arizona took two of three at Citi Field at the end of April.

The visitors will turn to Kodai Senga for a second straight start against the Snakes, while the home team counters with Merrill Kelly, who has been much tougher to solve when throwing in the desert.

Mets vs. Diamondbacks recent form and records

New York

The Mets have seen their lead atop the NL East standings shrink to just two-games with Carlos Mendoza's crew only logging five wins in their last 12 games. The team has failed to log a series win since busting the brooms out on the Philadelphia Phillies on April 23.

At 23-14 overall, New York has delivered $303 in profit for MLB bettors. However, they've been a costly road investment, going 10-11 to leave their backers $332 in the red.

Arizona

The Diamondbacks currently sit in fourth place of the ultra-competitive NL West, 5.0-games in back of the front running Dodgers.

Torey Lovullo's troops have won just one of its last five series, yet still sit $33 in the black with a 19-17 overall record. Surprisingly, they've been a break-even team at home, where a 9-9 mark has left backers $141 in the red.

Injuries

New York

Ronny Mauricio SS 10 Day IL - Knee
Jesse Winker LF 10 Day IL - Side
Jose Siri CF 10 Day IL - Shin
Paul Blackburn SP 15 Day IL - Knee
Danny Young RP 60 Day IL - Elbow
A.J. Minter RP 60 Day IL - Lat
Frankie Montas Jr. SP 60 Day IL - Lat
Brooks Raley RP 60 Day IL - Elbow
Sean Manaea SP 60 Day IL - Oblique
Christian Scott SP 60 Day IL - Elbow
Nick Madrigal 3B 60 Day IL - Shoulder
Drew Smith RP 60 Day IL - Elbow

Arizona

G. Moreno C Day To Day - Undisclosed
A.J. Puk RP 15 Day IL - Elbow
Justin Martinez RP 15 Day IL - Shoulder
Kendall Graveman RP 15 Day IL - Back
Jordan Montgomery SP 60 Day IL - Elbow
Blake Walston SP 60 Day IL - Elbow

Starting Pitchers

Kodai Senga (3-2, 1.38 ERA in 2025)

Allowed 26 hits (1 HR) & 5 ER with a 31:12 K/BB ratio in six 2025 starts.
Worked 4.0 IP of 5 hit (0 HR), 1 ER ball with 6:2 K/BB ratio last time out vs. D'backs
2-1 with a 1.00 ERA & 28:6 K/BB ratio in 18.0 career IP thrown vs. the D'backs.
1-1 with a 2.00 ERA and 17:5 K/BB ratio in 18.0 IP on the road in 2025.

Merrill Kelly (3-1 4.06 ERA in 2025)

Allowed 28 hits (5 HR) & 17 ER with a 27:12 K/BB ratio in seven 2025 starts.
Worked 5.0 IP of 4 hit (0 HR), 1 ER ball with 2:0 K/BB ratio last time out at Philadelphia.
1-4 with a 5.23 ERA & 34:13 K/BB ratio in 31.0 career IP thrown vs. the Mets.
2-0 with a 2.60 ERA and 9:7 K/BB ratio in 17.1 IP at home in 2025.

Must-Watch Hitters

New York

Though Pete Alonso saw his seven-game hit streak go by the boards last night, go right back to the well with the "Polar Bear" who has handled Merrill Kelly well in the past.

He's 5-for-16 lifetime against the Diamondbacks' right-hander with three of those hits reaching the cheap seats. He's slashing .327/.450/.636/.1.086 against righties to date, putting both his total bases and home run props in play this afternoon.

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Arizona

Singling out a Diamondbacks hitter to back in this matchup is tough considering how dominant Kodai Senga has been against their lineup in the past. He owns a career 1.00 ERA against them while holding a collective .175 batting average across 18.0 total innings.

However, Josh Naylor saw him well in their first-ever standoff last week, going 1-for-2 with a walk and no strikeouts. Left-handed bats have fared better against New York's ace, making the first baseman worth a look as he aims to make amends for miscues in the field and on the bases earlier in the series.

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Mets vs. Diamondbacks MLB 2025 Betting Odds

Wednesday 5/7	Money Line	Run Line	Total Runs
New York Mets	-125	-1.5 +130	O 9 -118
Arizona Diamondbacks	+105	+1.5 -155	U 9-102

Mets vs. Diamondbacks expert picks and game prediction

The Diamondbacks figured Kodai Senga out back on May 1, and more of the same is expected today. The Mets right-hander looks great on paper, but his underlying stats are a bit alarming. He's allowing a career-high 7.2 hits while also issuing 3.3 walks per nine innings. On top of that, he's only averaging 8.5 K/9.

On the flipside, Merrill Kelly has been nothing if not steady logging quality starts in three of his last five outings. With both bullpens severely taxed, attack this match from a first-five innings perspective at DraftKings Sportsbook, and look for runs to hit the board once the relievers get involved.

Mets vs. Diamondbacks Prediction: Arizona Wins 6-4

About the author

Mike earned a Bachelor of Science in Human Biology from the University of Kansas with dreams of becoming an orthopedic surgeon and team physician. However, his career path took a different turn as he ventured into sports handicapping, writing, and editing.

While preparing for the MCAT, Mike applied to contribute to a site offering free sports picks, which proved to be a pivotal step. His success there garnered interest from larger platforms and startups. Despite his efforts, organic chemistry derailed his medical school ambitions, and he chose to shift fully into sports betting and fantasy sports content creation.

Over a 20-year career, Mike has navigated the highs and lows of professional sports betting. His experience spans working on a late-night sports talk radio show, covering the Chicago Rush in the Arena Football League, managing a content distribution company, owning and operating a vape shop, and creating one of the first profitable DFS affiliate sites—an endeavor that helped buy his current home.

When offline, Mike enjoys working out his green thumb, coaching his son’s sports teams, hosting tea parties with his daughter, and relaxing with his wife and friends. A die-hard Kansas Jayhawks fan, he also proudly bleeds Cubbie blue.

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Edited by Mike Rose