Yankees vs. Orioles: Game 1 prediction, lineup, odds, injuries, and picks - September 26, 2025

New York Yankees v Baltimore Orioles - Source: Getty
The Yankees are looking to clinch the AL East from the Toronto Blue Jays (Source: Getty Images)

159 games have been played by both the New York Yankees and the Toronto Blue Jays, and they remain inseparable at the top of the AL East division. However, to New York's dismay, the Blue Jays hold the tiebreaker. The Yankees know winning all three games against the Baltimore Orioles is crucial to remain in the hunt for the division title.

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The Yankees (91-68) are on a five-game win streak, including a series sweep over the Chicago White Sox. The Orioles (75-84) are 16.0 games behind the two division leaders but are coming off a series win over the Tampa Bay Rays to conclude their homestand for the season. The Yankees lead 6-4 in the regular-season matchup.

Yankees vs. Orioles Game 1: Betting Odds and Weather

Time: 7:05 p.m. EDT at Yankee Stadium

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Money Line: Yankees -150, Orioles +125

Total Runs: Over/Under is 8.0 runs

Weather: Mostly Cloudy, 77 degrees F, 2% precipitation, Wind 6 mph out

Yankees vs. Orioles Game 1: Injuries and Lineups

Injuries

Yankees

  • Brent Headrick: 15-Day IL (forearm),
  • Jonathan Loaisiga: 15-Day IL (back),
  • Clarke Schmidt: 60-Day IL (forearm),
  • Oswaldo Cabrera: 60-Day IL (ankle),
  • Jake Cousins: 60-Day IL (elbow),
  • Gerrit Cole: 60-Day IL (elbow)

Orioles

  • Jackson Holliday: day-to-day (knee),
  • Samuel Basallo: day-to-day (hand),
  • Chayce McDermott: 15-Day IL (back),
  • Albert Suarez: 15-Day IL (elbow),
  • Shawn Dubin: 15-Day IL (elbow),
  • Brandon Young: 60-Day IL (hamstring),
  • Gary Sanchez: 60-Day IL (knee),
  • Felix Bautista: 60-Day IL (shoulder),
  • Zach Eflin: 60-Day IL (back),
  • Grayson Rodriguez: 60-Day IL (elbow)
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Expected Lineups

Yankees

  1. LF A. Slater R
  2. RF Aaron Judge R
  3. CF C. Bellinger L
  4. DH G. Stanton R
  5. 3B Amed Rosario R
  6. 1B P. Goldschmidt R
  7. 2B J. Chisholm L
  8. SS J. Caballero R
  9. C Ben Rice L

Orioles

  1. LF D. Beavers L
  2. 3B J. Westburg R
  3. SS G. Henderson L
  4. C A. Rutschman S
  5. 2B J. Mateo R
  6. RF J. Jackson R
  7. DH S. Basallo L
  8. CF C. Cowser L
  9. 1B Coby Mayo R

Yankees vs. Orioles Game 1: Expert Picks and Prediction

Orioles' Trevor Rogers (9-2, 1.35 ERA) will face Yankees' Will Warren (8-8, 4.35 ERA) in the starting pitcher battle. Rogers would have been in contention for the AL Cy Young award with these figures, but he has had a shortened 17-start due to injury. He makes his final start of the season with a 1.10 ERA in September. Warren has a 0-2, 4.64 ERA in this month from four starts.

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The Yankees' lineup has been the key to their success, hitting at .273 in their last ten games. Giancarlo Stanton has been hot at the plate, driving in a go-ahead three-run double on Wednesday. Aaron Judge has 3 homers in the last five games. For the Orioles, Coby Mayo has hit 12-for-30 with four extra base hits, including two home runs, in their last 10 games.

Prediction: Yankees 5, Orioles 4

Picks: Yankees ML (-150), Over 8.0 runs

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Edited by R. Nikhil Parshy
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