Royals vs. Pirates: Game 1 prediction, lineups, odds, injuries, and picks - July 7, 2025

The Pittsburgh Pirates are on the road to the Kansas City Royals for a three-game series between interleague opponents. Both are heading into the series with mixed results.

The Pirates have lost their last five games on the road. They had a six-game home winning streak in between those five losses to the Mariners and Brewers, hold a 38-53 record and are last in the NL Central. Given they are 11 games back of a wild card spot, Pittsburgh needs to play near-perfect baseball if they are to save their season.

Meanwhile, the Royals have lost 11 out of their last 12 games at home, which includes series sweeps handed to them by the Tampa Bay Rays, New York Yankees, and the Athletics. They are well off the pace this year with a 43-47 record, and are 14.0 games behind the Detroit Tigers in the AL Central standings.

Royals vs. Pirates Game 1: Betting Odds & Weather

Time: Monday, 7:40 p.m. EDT

Money Line: Royals (-155), Pirates (+130)

Total Runs: Over 8.5 runs (-115), Under 8.5 runs (-105)

Weather: Mostly Sunny, 88 degrees F, 10% precipitation, Wind 7 mph R-L

Royals vs. Pirates Game 1: Injuries & Lineups

Injuries

Royals

• Daniel Lynch: 15-Day IL (elbow),
• Cole Ragans: 15-Day IL (rotator cuff),
• Michael Massey: 10-Day IL (ankle),
• Hunter Harvey: 60-Day IL (shoulder),
• Alec Marsh: 60-Day IL (shoulder),
• James McArthur: 60-Day IL (elbow)

Pirates

• Ryan Borucki: 15-Day IL (back),
• Endy Rodriguez: 60-Day IL (elbow),
• Colin Holderman: 15-Day IL (thumb),
• Enmanuel Valdez: 60-Day IL (shoulder),
• Justin Lawrence: 60-Day IL (elbow),
• Tim Mayza: 60-Day IL (shoulder),
• Jared Jones: 60-Day IL (elbow),
• Johan Oviedo: 60-Day IL (elbow)

Expected Lineups

Royals

1. 2B J. India [R]
2. SS Bobby Witt [R]
3. 3B M. Garcia [R]
4. DH V. Pasquantino [L]
5. 1B S. Perez [R]
6. LF Mark Canha [R]
7. RF J. Caglianone [L]
8. C F. Fermin [R]
9. CF John Rave [L]

Pirates

1. LF Tommy Pham [R]
2. DH A. McCutchen [R]
3. RF B. Reynolds [S]
4. 2B N. Gonzales [R]
5. 3B K. Hayes [R]
6. CF Oneil Cruz [L]
7. 1B Jared Triolo [R]
8. C Henry Davis [R]
9. SS I. Kiner-Falefa [R]

Royals vs. Pirates Game 1: Prediction and Picks

The Pirates' offensive prowess seems to have disappeared all of a sudden. After outscoring their opponents 43-4 in the six-game home stand, they were shut out in all three games by the Mariners. Weirdly enough, two of those losses were by a 1-0 margin, showing that their pitching is the silver lining, collectively holding a 1.57 ERA in the last 10 games.

The Royals' offense has depended on Bobby Witt Jr. and Vinnie Pasquantino. The latter has hit 13 RBIs in the last 10 games. They will have starter Noah Cameron (2-4, 2.56 ERA) take the mound, looking to outduel Andrew Heaney (4-7, 4.16 ERA).

Looking at how the offenses are lined up, another low-scoring matchup seems to be on the cards.

Picks: Royals (-155), Under 8.5 runs

Prediction: Royals 4, Pirates 2