So this is what the window looks like? A look at the 2015 Kansas City Royals

It means at least one more year of the Mike Moustakas experiment. Yes, he has been a bust by all indications other than defense. Yes, he is a constant reminder of our inability to develop anything in the minors other than relief pitching. Yes, everyone (especially Danny Clinkscale) is ready to run him out of town.

But because he has been so bad, he will be cheap. He is arbitration eligible for the first time and given his performance and the position he plays, I’m predicting somewhere between 1 and 1.5 million. That is very cost effective for a “starting” third baseman. Get used to it, Kansas City. Moose may end seeing Triple A for a bit this year, but he isn’t going anywhere in the long run.

It means Guthrie, Vargas, Gordon, or Infante could get moved this offseason (though I seriously doubt more than one of these players is traded). These 4 players add up to almost 40 million in payroll, or almost half of what the Glass family is truly comfortable with. Conventional wisdom tells us that is too much for 4 players, none of which are “stars”.

It means we will have a pretty massive bullpen overhaul. These 7 players are projected to total $17,000,000 in payroll in 2015. Again, there is no way that can happen.

Do we trade Holland or Davis? Do we give up on control issue prone Herrera? Do we slide Duffy into one of the starting spots? Is Chen a starter or a 1 million per year long reliever? There are several options worth considering here, but the overall point remains the same. It will not be the same dominant bullpen we have enjoyed for the past 2+ seasons.

I will stop just short of saying the team is in line to be blown up this offseason. However, all of these factors combined mean that it is truly time for the “next man up”. If Ventura takes over the “ace” position of the rotation, we need a 4th and 5th starter that can give our team a chance to win every day. We need someone to DH. We need someone to play right field. We need reliable bench players that can spell our regulars when a day off or trips to the DL arise. We need reliable young arms out of the pen to lock down the mid innings.

Most importantly, given our current payroll situation, we need all these players to make at or around the league minimum. Consider this an official notice to Kyle Zimmer, Sugar Ray Marimon, Paulo Orlando, Brett Eibner, Johnny Giovatella, Jorge Bonafacio, Brian Fletcher, Matt Fields, an endless slew of relief pitchers, and many other prospects in the Royals system that Spring Training 2015 is going to be open season for major league roster spots.

And oh yeah, just for “fun” I said I would try to offer a solution on how to free up the money to resign James Shields. Given the recent contracts signed by free agent starting pitchers and their relative ages, I would guess Shields is going to sign in the neighborhood of 20 million dollars per year. If the Royals need to end up in that 75-80 million dollar range I think is most preferred by the Glass family, this means the 2015 Opening Day roster would probably have to look something like this:

C – Perez 1B – Hosmer 2B – Infante SS – Escobar 3B – Moustakas LF – Major League Minimum Player CF – Cain RF – Major League Minimum Player DH – Major League Minimum Player Bench – Major League Minimum Player Bench – Major League Minimum Player Bench – Major League Minimum Player Bench – Major League Minimum Player

SP 1 – Shields SP 2 – Ventura SP 3 – Vargas SP 4 – Guthrie SP 5 – Duffy RP 1 – Chen RP 2 – Major League Minimum Player RP 3 – Major League Minimum Player RP 4 – Major League Minimum Player RP 5 – Major League Minimum Player RP 6 – Major League Minimum Player Closer – Holland

Expected Payroll – $76,000,000

You could keep Gordon in left and trade Guthrie instead, but that would push the overall payroll up to almost $80,000,000.

And keep in mind the cost of these players goes up more and more each year as their arbitration years and contracts advance.

I give this scenario a less than 1% chance of happening. The Royals cannot field a team so unproven behind their handful of core starters and Shields would have absolutely no interest pitching for this potential 100 loss team. Enjoy James Shields as he comes through Kaufmann stadium next year in an opposing team’s uniform.