Yankees vs. Mets: Game 1, prediction, odds, injuries and picks

The Yankees host the Mets for the first Subway Series matchup of the 2025 MLB season. Many eyes will be glued to the matchup as baseball's most expensive player, Juan Soto, makes his return to the Bronx donning the orange and blue.

Soto had a memorable single-year campaign with the Yanks in 2024 and helped the squad reach the World Series for the first time since 2009. Ahead of the new season, however, he elected to sign for their cross-city rivals in what was the richest contract ever given to a sportsperson, valued at $765 million.

In 2024, the Mets dominated the Subway Series and were victorious in all four meetings against the Yanks.

Yankees vs Mets recent form and records

The Bombers hold a firm grip over the AL East with a 25-18 record. They lead the majors in home runs with 76 and OPS with .828, and are 13-8 at home.

The Mets, likewise, possess the best record in their division at 28-16. They have established dominance on both sides of the ball but have performed better on the mound with a 2.84 ERA for the pitching crew.

Players to watch

Starting pitchers

NYY: Carlos Rodon (4-3, 3.29 ERA, 67 K), NYM: Tylor Megill (3-3, 3.10 ERA, 52 K)

New York Yankees

Carlos Rodon has performed well in his third season in the Bronx. The lefty holds a 4-3 record across nine starts with a 3.29 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 67 strikeouts.

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New York Mets

All eyes will be on the prodigal son as Juan Soto makes his highly anticipated Yankee Stadium debut for the Mets.

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The 2024 AL MVP podium finisher is batting at .255/.380/.465 with an OPS of .845. Soto has also compiled eight home runs, 20 RBIs, and 31 runs scored for his new squad.

Yankees vs Mets baseball betting odds

Friday, 5/16	Money Line	Run Spread	Total Runs
NYY	-128	-1.5, +145	O 8.5, -132
NYM	+116	+1.5, -180	U 8.5, +106

Yankees vs Mets expert picks and game prediction

A titanic clash is set to ensue in the Big Apple between the cross-city rivals. Although the Mets have the better-performing pitching crew, Yankee starter Carlos Rodon is undefeated in two starts against the team with a 0.84 ERA and 12 strikeouts.

Aaron Judge, Paul Goldschmidt, Juan Soto, and Pete Alonso will all be relied upon to deliver the results for their respective squads. Expect a tight-knit affair between the New York juggernauts.

Run Line: +1.5, -180

Total Runs: U 8.5, +106

Prediction: NYY wins, 2-1

About the author

Daniel Santiago is a journalist who has been reporting on baseball at Sportskeeda since 2022. He was drawn towards the sport after the underlying statistics and the analysis surrounding it grabbed his attention.

Daniel particularly enjoys furnishing reports about historic events in baseball and analyzing the game through a statistic-based outlook, based on Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference. This is in line with how he enjoyed watching baseball as a pastime. As a writer, he is very particular about cross-checking from reputable sources and doing his due diligence.

He became a lifelong Hideki Matsui fan after his exploits in the 2009 World Series for the New York Yankees. Among the current generation, Daniel's favorites include Shohei Ohtani and Jung Hoo Lee. Daniel is a huge follower of Asian baseball and both Ohtani and Lee have been in the top echelon of their respective leagues during their time with the NPB and KBO.

His favorite moment as a baseball fan was the final at-bat of the 2023 World Baseball Classic between Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout. He believes there aren't many words to fittingly describe the intensity of the moment.

As an avid sports fan, Daniel watches other sports and Esports when not writing about baseball.

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Edited by Daniel Santiago

Yankees vs. Mets: Game 1, prediction, odds, injuries and picks - May 16, MLB 2025