Yankees vs. Orioles: Game 1, prediction, odds, injuries and picks

The Baltimore Orioles will look to bounce back from a three-game sweep in Motown on Monday when they welcome the New York Yankees into Oriole Park at Camden Yards for the opener of the three-game set between the AL East rivals. Tonight represents the team's first meeting of 2025.

Game 1 pits a pair of right-handers against one another, with Will Warren set to square off against Tomoyuki Sugano.

Yankees vs. Orioles recent form and records

New York

The Yankees currently sit atop the division standings with a 17-11 overall record after taking two of three from the Blue Jays in the Bronx over the weekend.

Aaron Boone's crew has proven to be a winning investment for MLB bettors, posting winning marks both at home (10-5, $160) and on the road (7-6, -$96), resulting in a modest $64 rate of return.

Baltimore

Brandon Hyde's Orioles have been riding the struggle bus since their 12-2 rout of the Blue Jays on Opening Day. They sit at 10-17 overall, costing their $100-per-bet backers $778 overall.

However, tonight's game marks just their 12th home game, with most of the deficit accrued on the road, where they've gone 11-16 (-$567). At home, the O's have been a bit more competitive, posting a 5-6 record (-$211).

Injuries

New York

Marcus Stroman SP 15 Day IL - Knee
JT Brubaker SP 60 Day IL - Ribs
Jake Cousins RP 60 Day IL - Elbow
Scott Effross RP 15 Day IL - Hamstring
Clayton Beeter SP 15 Day IL - Shoulder
Giancarlo Stanton DH 10 Day IL - Elbow
DJ LeMahieu 3B 10 Day IL - Calf
Jonathan Loaisiga RP 15 Day IL - Elbow
Luis Gil SP 60 Day IL - Back
Gerrit Cole SP 60 Day IL - Elbow

Baltimore

Tyler O'Neill RF 10 Day IL - Neck
Cody Poteet SP 15 Day IL - Shoulder
Zach Eflin SP 15 Day IL - Lat
Albert Suarez RP 60 Day IL - Shoulder
Colton Cowser LF 10 Day IL - Thumb
Chayce McDermott SP 15 Day IL - Lat
Andrew Kittredge RP 15 Day IL - Knee
Trevor Rogers SP 15 Day IL - Knee
Grayson Rodriguez SP 15 Day IL - Elbow
Tyler Wells SP 60 Day IL - Elbow
Kyle Bradish SP 60 Day IL - Elbow

Starting Pitchers

Will Warren (1-0, 4.79 ERA in 2025)

Allowed 16 hits (2 HR) & 11 ER with a 21:10 K/BB ratio in five 2025 starts.
Tossed 5.0 IP of 3 hits (0 HR) & 2 ER ball with 5:1 K/BB ratio at Cleveland last start.
0-0 with a 5.91 ERA & 11:4 K/BB ratio in 10.2 IP on the road in 2025.
This will be his first career start against the Orioles.

Tomoyuki Sugano (2-1, 3.54 ERA in 2025)

Allowed 27 hits (6 HR) & 11 ER with a 9:5 K/BB ratio in five 2025 starts.
Tossed 7.0 IP of 5 hits (2 HR) and 3 ER ball with 1:0 K/BB ratio at Washington last start.
1-0 with a 3.86 ERA and 3:2 K/BB ratio in 11.2 IP at home in 2025.
This will be his first career start against the Yankees.

Must-Watch Hitters

New York

Whenever Ben Rice is staring back at a right-hander, MLB prop bettors should give him a hard look. The Yankees' first baseman is slashing .295/.419/.590/1.009 against them with four home runs and eight RBIs. Having failed to log a single hit in three straight games, he's +150 to tally an RBI and +140 to collect 2+ bases.

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Baltimore

With the Orioles failing to score more than three runs in any of their last seven games, it's tough to get excited about backing any of their bats in the opener.

However, Gunnar Henderson is riding his first three-game hit streak of the season. While yet to step into the box to oppose Will Warren in his career, he's slashing .281/.324/.626/.949 at home and has been seeing right-handed pitching much better than lefties so far this season.

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Yankees vs. Orioles Betting Odds

Monday 4/28	Money Line	Run Line	Total Runs
New York Yankees	-122	-1.5 +130	O 9.5 -115
Baltimore Orioles	+102	+1.5 -155	U 9.5 -105

Yankees vs. Orioles expert picks and game prediction

Aside from logging series wins at Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay—in their spring training ball park—the Yankees haven't been anything to write home about when on the road. Oddsmakers at DraftKings Sportsbook seem to have factored that in, listing New York as short road favorites for tonight's opener. With the Orioles finally back home, look for them to vent some pent-up frustrations and start the series off on the right foot.

Yankees vs. Orioles Prediction: Baltimore Wins 5-4

About the author

Mike earned a Bachelor of Science in Human Biology from the University of Kansas with dreams of becoming an orthopedic surgeon and team physician. However, his career path took a different turn as he ventured into sports handicapping, writing, and editing.

While preparing for the MCAT, Mike applied to contribute to a site offering free sports picks, which proved to be a pivotal step. His success there garnered interest from larger platforms and startups. Despite his efforts, organic chemistry derailed his medical school ambitions, and he chose to shift fully into sports betting and fantasy sports content creation.

Over a 20-year career, Mike has navigated the highs and lows of professional sports betting. His experience spans working on a late-night sports talk radio show, covering the Chicago Rush in the Arena Football League, managing a content distribution company, owning and operating a vape shop, and creating one of the first profitable DFS affiliate sites—an endeavor that helped buy his current home.

When offline, Mike enjoys working out his green thumb, coaching his son’s sports teams, hosting tea parties with his daughter, and relaxing with his wife and friends. A die-hard Kansas Jayhawks fan, he also proudly bleeds Cubbie blue.

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Edited by Mike Rose