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The Washington Wizards were supposed to be a serious contender in the Eastern Conference by now. They have one of the best two-way point guards in the league in John Wall, who completes a lethal backcourt duo with Bradley Beal, versatile wings in Otto Porter and Kelly Oubre Jr. and a former NBA finalist coach, Scott Brooks.
But much like other teams in the past, they failed to stay resilient in the face of adversity.
Instead of taking advantage of the momentum of their 2016-17 NBA season, in which they finished one win away from the Eastern Conference Finals, Washington fell in the rankings and lost in the first round of the playoffs, re-opening old wounds.
Team chemistry suffered a big blow during Wall's 2-month-long injury; starting center, Marcin Gortat, implied that the team moves the ball better without him and Beal, whose relationship with Wall was fractured, to begin with, backed that claim.
Coming into this season, Gortat is no longer there, but the tension is still high in DC. Every significant figure on the team has something to prove this year, Coach Brooks and GM Ernie Grunfeld included.
Here is how the team is looking ahead of the 2018-19 season:
Offseason Activity
The first action of the offseason for Wizards GM, Ernie Grunfeld, was trading Marcin Gortat for the Clippers' Austin Rivers. It is supposed to kill two birds with one stone: eliminate the adversity factor in the team's roster and strengthen their mediocre bench. Rivers is coming off his best year so far and has a lot to contribute to the Wizards.
Following that, they had to bring along a new center. After being traded by the Hornets and bought out by the Nets, Dwight Howard, once the NBA's best big-man, joined Washington on a two-year deal. It will be his fourth team in four years, but he is also coming off a very good season.
Other key additions to the team are the 15th overall pick in the 2018 NBA Draft, Troy Brown Jr., veteran forward Jeff Green, and versatile big man Thomas Bryant, who was claimed off waivers from the Lakers. Bryant will have to fill the void left by Mike Scott, who played the center in small-ball lineups for Washington and left this summer for the Clippers.
Squad Weaknesses
In the two years that Scott Brooks has coached the team, the Wizards were top-10 in personal fouls committed and free throws attempts allowed. To put this problem in perspective, for every 4.7 field goals Wizards' opponents attempted last year, they scored a free throw. Only four other teams in the 2017-18 NBA allowed a made free throw for less than that. In total, 16.9% of the points Washington conceded came from free throws, sixth most in the league. If their defense will allow that many easy points from the free throw line this year, they should expect another disappointing season.
Additional weakness Wizards' players showed last year was failing to keep their cool. They suffered 42 technical fouls in the previous season, an average of one every two games. Markieff Morris had the "honor" of ranking fifth among all NBA players with 13. Coach Brooks will have to put an emphasis on that before the start of the season, especially considering the team added last year's technical foul leader, Dwight Howard, who amassed 17 of those.
Team Strengths
One of the fields Washington excelled at last year was shooting and defending beyond the three-point line. The Wizards were fourth in three-point percentage and sixth in opponent's three-point percentage. Otto Porter, who's known for his shooting ability, led the team with 44.1% from this range, but even John Wall, who struggled in the past from downtown, shot a solid 37.1% in 2017-18.
With the addition of Austin Rivers, who shot a career high, 37.8% from three last year, and Thomas Bryant, who has stretch-five potential, Washington should continue to be a top-10 three-point shooting team, but average more than the 26.5 shots per game they did last year.
Another field the Wizards should show improvement at is defense. In the backcourt, they will have a healthy John Wall, who last year was the first player in NBA history to average at least one steal and one block as a point guard. In the wings, they have Porter's length and newly added Jeff Green's experience. In Center, both Howard and Mahinmi are good defending big men. Barring injuries, Washington is going to be a tough team to score against.
Opportunities and Threats
Washington has the opportunity to be a fast-paced team. They have Wall, who is one of the fastest players in the NBA, even while dribbling, two 25-year-old wings in the starting five and athletic young bench pieces in Oubre, Brown Jr. and Bryant. The Wizards were at the bottom half of the table in pace last year, but mostly because of the coach's system. Scott Brooks should use the players he has smarter and let them run the floor more often.
However, what threatens Washington's success this year is the chemistry between the players. We all know Wall and Beal are not really the best of friends, and this past season just made everything worse. Gortat is out, but Dwight Howard isn’t known for being the friendliest of teammates from his stints in LA and Houston. If they will not be able to put their ego aside and get along with each other, Washington's season will go downhill very quickly.
Scott Brooks has a solid squad to work with in the Eastern Conference, but has a lot of work to do in order to maximize on their full potential.
Predictions for the Season
The Wizards are in the second tier of Eastern Conference teams; Boston, Toronto, and Philadelphia are at the top tier and lead the race to the NBA Finals, while teams like Washington, Milwaukee and Indiana challenge for a spot in the second round of the playoffs and a possible sensation. Two of those three will likely face each other in the first round, while the third will have to face one of the top teams of the conference.
Washington should be able to avoid the tougher matchup if they can stay healthy and out of each other's hair. They will have the best bench of the three and will probably benefit from Milwaukee's adjustment to a new coach and Indiana's lack of depth.
I predict the Wizards will win 46-48 games and face Milwaukee in the first round of the playoffs. The team that will earn the fourth seed and home-court advantage will probably be the one to advance. Failing to go past the first round will put Brooks' job in danger.
Guess the Lakers players!
