Michigan State: Will the Spartans make the NCAA Tournament following their loss to Ohio State?

Ohio State v Michigan State
Ohio State vs. Michigan State: Will the Spartans make the tournament?

The Michigan State Spartans suffered a major heartbreak against the Ohio State Buckeyes, losing 60-57 on a last-second 3-pointer from Dale Bonner, with OSU finally snapping its 17-game road losing skid on Sunday. As for the Spartans, the loss comes with multiple questions, one of which is whether they'll still be able to make the NCAA Tournament.

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Michigan State (17-11, 9-8 Big Ten) is at a crossroads. The Spartans are seventh in the Big Ten behind Minnesota (17-9, 8-7) and in danger of letting a postseason berth slip away, considering they lost to this year's second-worst Big Ten team.

So, what now?

Michigan State's chances of making the NCAA Tournament

The odds for Michigan State are as follows as of Sunday (via WILX):

  • Winning the national championship: +4000
  • Preseason national championship odds: +1600
  • Pre-new year national championship odds: +2500

Things weren't going swimmingly for the Spartans to begin with, too. Pundits didn't have a lot of confidence in them before the season began, with some even going as far as predicting they wouldn't make the NCAA Tournament.

Perhaps these analysts were right, too. Despite being well over .500 right now, Michigan State is outside the AP Top 25 at 29th. It's also had only one impressive win all year, an 88-64 victory over then-No. 6 Baylor in mid-December.

For the Spartans' next most impressive wins, here's what they got:

  • 88-80 at home over then-No. 10 Illinois on Feb. 10
  • 87-75 at home over unranked Indiana State on Dec. 30
  • 79-62 at home over unranked Oakland on Dec. 18
  • 73-55 at home over unranked Rutgers on Jan. 14
  • 74-54 at home over unranked Butler on No. 17

Considering that all but one of these wins are against unranked teams, Michigan State's chances of making it into March Madness keep getting slimmer by the minute.

Michigan State's quadrant performance

Quadrant performances matter immensely in Michigan State's chances of making the NCAA Tournament. But judging by how it's performed, things aren't looking too good.

At Net 23 (via BBallnet), the Spartans are a poor 3-8 in their Quad 1 games. Even their better wins against Illinois and Baylor didn't do much to help their Net rating. Their Quad 2, 3 and 4 performances seem far better but are still not enough. At this rate, Michigan State is unlikely to get an at-large bid during the selection.

With just three games left in the regular season (one of them against the mighty Purdue Boilermakers), perhaps even an upset of Purdue could not help Michigan State's March Madness hopes.

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