College Football Realignment saga: Insider notes on what to expect from Stanford, Cal, ACC and more

Realignment in college football spelled doom for the PAC-12, one of the great conferences in college sports on the West Coast. Yet four programs, Cal, Stanford, Oregon State, and Washington State—are in limbo and still without a home.

Here’s the latest on what may happen with those four schools as well as the future of realignment in college football.

At the time of this writing, Cal and Stanford both have a legitimate chance of being added to the ACC. A series of meetings will be held this week by ACC officials to discuss adding the two Pac-12 programs, as well as SMU, to the conference.

All three schools are expected to agree to concessions that would significantly reduce the distribution of money they receive from the conference. A vote of 12 ACC schools is required to approve adding any of the three schools to the conference, and a final decision could be imminent.

Yet nothing is guaranteed, and when all is said and done, Oregon State and Washington State will still be on the outside looking in.

Here are a few scenarios put forth by people I’ve spoken with on what could happen if Cal and Stanford are not offered admittance into the ACC, as well as the future of realignment in college football.

Amid Stanford-ACC rumors, the school has a couple of more viable options

Though Stanford would like to be a part of the ACC, the school has no problem going the Notre Dame route and gaining independent status.

Stanford sports teams have won 134 NCAA team championships, the most of any university, winning at least one team championship each of the past 47 years. The school’s athletic endowment is huge, and it’s large enough to fund the athletic program.

Just a few years ago, when there seemed to be trouble on the horizon and almost a dozen sports were going to be cut by the university, donors ponied up some $76 million to save the sports on the cutting block as well as ensure the future of all 36 varsity programs.

For Stanford, joining ranks with the ACC is a convenience but by no means a necessity. The school is not in panic mode, has the luxury to make the best decision for itself, and won’t make choices based purely on athletics.

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The remaining Pac-12 teams, California-Oregon State-Washington State, have a similar fate

The conference realignment situation for the remaining three Pac-12 teams could not be any more different. As someone told me yesterday, “If Cal is not invited to join the ACC, they are screwed.” The University of California’s sports programs and athletic budget are reliant on revenues paid out by the Pac-12, and those must be replaced.

The feeling among many is that conference realignment will eventually work out for Oregon State, which has a decent program and solid backing. An invitation to join the Big 12 is not entirely off the table. Washington State, on the other hand, looks to be on the outside looking in at this point.

While many believe joining the Mountain West Conference is the sensible alternative for programs with no home, it would be a budgetary killer for the school’s sports programs.

Universities going from the Pac-12 to the Mountain West would see a decline in revenues of nearly $20 million annually. The result would be that multiple sports programs at these schools would get the axe.

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The Future of College Football Realignment

After all the mayhem we’ve witnessed over the past few years, which has been accelerated in the past few months, will we be able to sit back and enjoy college football in its new form moving forward? Probably not. Many believe the recent flurry of teams moving from traditional conferences to greener pastures is just the beginning.

The feeling in the college football world is there will be another wave of conference realignment in the near future.

This one will entail one or two super conferences consisting of 20 to 25 teams each.

The top teams from the SEC (Alabama, Georgia, LSU, etc.) will align with top programs from the Big 10 (Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State) to make a true power conference. Texas, TCU and Oklahoma will eventually team up with USC, Oregon, Utah, and others to form a second super conference.

The incoming revenue streams from television deals and media rights will be astronomical for regular-season and postseason play.

Meanwhile, the Vanderbilts, Houstons, and Arizonas of the college world will be kicked to the curb and must fend for themselves. So strap yourselves in and expect more changes coming to college football.