What is the ceiling for Oklahoma with Dillon Gabriel at the helm? Exploring the final season for the Sooners QB and the upside for the offense

Oklahoma football found itself in unfamiliar territory in 2022. Head coach Brent Venables was brought into the Sooners program to sustain a long line of success from Bob Stoops to Lincoln Riley, but his first season on the job left much to be desired.

Oklahoma finished the season under .500 at 6-7, settling for 8th place in the Big 12. This performance does not indicate a historic Sooners program, used to Big 12 banners, and making national title runs.

Oklahoma enters the 2023 season under the radar for the first time in a long period. TCU brought national attention in 2022 on their run to the national title game, Kansas State won the Big 12, and Texas is poised to draw the pre-season hype.

Not many are speaking about the Sooners, and our guess is — Oklahoma likes that just fine.

How will Oklahoma respond and rebound from one of their most disappointing seasons in recent memory? Dillon Gabriel is a seasoned veteran at the QB position, entering his fifth season at the collegiate level.

As good as Gabriel is, it is fair to question — What is the ceiling for Oklahoma with Dillon Gabriel at the helm?

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Can the Oklahoma Sooners rebound in 2023?

Oklahoma v Texas Tech

The short answer is yes. Oklahoma remains a roster filled with talent on both sides of the ball. Oklahoma is a program that has had sustainable success with double-digit win seasons annually. We can expect to get a Sooners team much more like teams of the past than the version we saw in 2022.

The Big 12 has been notorious for shootouts and lack of defensive prowess lately. Now is the time for head coach Brent Venables to earn his paycheck and develop a hard-nosed, defensive-minded culture.

If the 2023 Sooners mirror the 2022 team, Brent Venables may not be long for the head coaching position.

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Will we see Jackson Arnold in 2023?

Oklahoma State v Oklahoma

If you are unfamiliar, Jackson Arnold is a hyped 5-star QB recruit. Arnold is ridiculously talented and has all the tools you want in a QB, but from all indications, the Oklahoma coaching staff wants to take it slow with the young signal-caller.

If we see Jackson Arnold under center for the Oklahoma Sooners in 2023, something has drastically gone wrong for the Sooners. In that case, we are not sure it is even worth putting Arnold out there.

The Sooners have a veteran presence in Dillon Gabriel — lean into that for 2023 while Jackson Arnold mentally prepares to take over the Oklahoma offense in 2024.

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What is the ceiling for Oklahoma with Dillon Gabriel at the helm?

Oklahoma v Texas Tech

Baker Mayfield is not walking through that door. Neither is Kyler Murray, and neither is Caleb Williams. The Oklahoma Sooners have been blessed with some of the best QB talent in recent memory and some of the most innovative play-calling in the college game.

We understand why Dillon Gabriel pales in comparison to those lofty expectations, but it doesn't mean that Gabriel is a bad QB.

He has been as consistent a QB as exists in college football today. We know what we are getting from the Oklahoma QB. Gabriel has posted a QB rating of 154 or above every year of his college career. He has thrown for 95 passing TD to only 20 interceptions.

Gabriel plays smart, throws an accurate football, and gets the ball out of his hand quickly and on time. It is easy to see why he has found success throughout his college career.

What is the ceiling for Oklahoma with Gabriel at the helm? A top-20 offense in college football and a top-15 finish as a program in 2023 would be the projected ceiling for the Sooners and their signal-caller.

Does Dillon Gabriel possess a Kyler Murray/Caleb Williams-type ceiling? No, but no one does. We are talking about some of the most talented QBs the game has seen recently.

Comparing Gabriel against those players is doing him no favor, but just because he doesn't have a Kyler or Caleb-type ceiling doesn't mean there aren't great expectations.

He comes with a rock-solid floor and will keep the Sooners' offense on schedule. Expect more of the same from the Oklahoma offense and the 5th-year starting QB in 2023.