Guardians of the Galaxy 3 expected to flop at the box office ahead of release

With Guardians of the Galaxy Vol.3 slated for release on May 5, 2023, there is much debate regarding whether it will live up to the success of its predecessor, GotG Vol.2. It also remains to be seen if the movie will fare better than the other Phase 5 film released this year, Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quatumania.

The pre-release projections are not very promising. With an opening weekend of $120-155 million and grossing a total of about $288-403 million, it will not be considered a success. Considering that the franchise is much-loved, these projections do not do justice to the expectations of moviegoers.

Fans and critics feel that Marvel superhero movies are coming to an end. While there is a belief that Marvel has raised expectations too high to achieve for itself, there is also a superhero-movie-fatigue setting among viewers. This, along with critical reviews, may spell doom for Guardians of the Galaxy Vol.3.

---

Negative predictions for Guardians of the Galaxy 3

Guardians of the Galaxy 3 has not created media buzz (Image via Marvel)

Box Office Pro has released a pre-release projection for Guardians of the Galaxy Vol.3 with quite disappointing figures. With an average estimate of $130 million opening, it stays at a weaker position than its predecessor. Compared to the franchise’s Vol.2 which opened at $146.5 million and grossed a total of $389 million, Vol.3 looks insubstantial.

Moreover, the pre-sales numbers for the movie are lower than those for Eternals and Shang Chi. As per predictions, the movie is set to gross between $288 million and $403 million at the global box office. However, industry experts believe that things can pick up with the right kind of reviews and pre-release marketing.

---

What are the reasons for Vol.3 being slated for a flop?

The much-loved Guardians team has minimal pre-sales numbers (Image via Marvel)

As per industry predictions, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol.3 won't be a hit, as evidenced by projections and low-volume marketing chatter. The 2023 MCU has failed to generate the desired buzz at the box office. Critics consider the mediocrity of the movies and viewers’ fatigue as two vital causes for this.

Furthermore, even for the popular GotG franchise, the IMDb rating and Rotten Tomatoes scores have gone down. The first movie, Guardians of the Galaxy, was rated 8.0 while the second was rated 7.6. The third may come lower. Rotten Tomatoes scored the first movie at 92% while the second stood at 85-87% with the third movie pointing to lesser figures.

James Gunn, who was fired by Disney and Marvel and later brought back, has helmed this project. While some moviegoers were unhappy with so many structural changes in the franchise, others have not forgiven Gunn for his inappropriate tweets. As a result, how the audience reacts to Gunn will determine the film's fate.

Kevin Feige’s latest movies are turning out to be too ridiculous for some moviegoers. From Thor: Love and Thunder to Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, the audience has rejected Kevin’s goofy approach to Marvel stories. Neither Groot nor Guardians of the Galaxy Holiday Special were great hits.

Marvel fans have become skeptical about the latest trends in movies. The crash of Quantumania is an example of this. The audience did not appreciate either the CGI, storyline, or script. Despite the high expectations around Kang, the conqueror, the film underperformed due to a terrible presentation.

---

Is Guardians of the Galaxy Vol.3 doomed to fail at the box office?

GotG 3 could be the last James Gunn movie under the Marvel banner (Image via Marvel and Getty)

It is too early to predict accurately. Although the projections look negative in comparison to previous GotG movies, all is not lost yet. Positioned to achieve between $120 million and $155 million opening, it is a better figure than Quatumania which opened at $106 million.

Moreover, director Gunn has empathized with the audience being served garbage movies, leading to fatigue. This holds the promise that he may turn this movie into a better deal. Considering that this is the last movie of the Guardians and also for Gunn who is moving over to the DC world, this movie may deliver a fitting finale for the team.