Australia or South Africa - which team is the favorite ahead of Day 3 of SA vs AUS 2025 WTC Final?

Fans have witnessed two action-packed days of the 2025 ICC World Test Championship (WTC) final between South Africa and Australia at the iconic Lord's Cricket Stadium. Bowlers have dominated proceedings so far, with 14 wickets falling on the opening day and another 14 on Day 2.

The Proteas won the toss and opted to bowl first in the WTC 2025 final. Kagiso Rabada (5-51) came up with a brilliant bowling effort, while Marco Jansen also claimed three wickets as Australia were bowled out for 212 in 56.4 overs. In response, the Aussie bowlers came up with an even better effort to knock over South Africa for 138. Skipper Pat Cummins led from the front with figures of 6-28.

Day 2 at Lord's ended with Australia at 144-8 in their second innings. They were 73-7 at one stage, but made a decent recovery courtesy of an eighth-wicket stand of 61 between Alex Carey (43) and Mitchell Starc (16*). Ahead of Day 3, we analyze which team has the upper hand in 2025 WTC final.

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Did South Africa miss a golden opportunity to bowl out Australia on Day 2 of WTC final?

Having gained a significant 74-run lead in the first innings, Australia held the upper hand in the WTC final. However, South Africa made a brilliant comeback into the contest courtesy of Rabada and Lungi Ngidi, with Jansen and Wiaan Mulder also chipping in.

Australia were reeling at 73-7 in their second innings, with their overall lead just short of the 150-run mark. The Proteas, however, failed to knock over the defiant Aussie lower order as Carey and Starc featured in a crucial stand - one that could prove to be match-defining. Significantly, the partnership between Carey and Starc pushed Australia's lead past 200, giving them the upper hand in the contest.

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Australia should be confident of bowling out South Africa for less than 200 in the second innings

Had South Africa bowled out Australia for less than 100 in the second innings, they would have had to chase a total of under 180. Temba Bavuma and co. would have fancied their chances in such a scenario. However, courtesy of Australia's lower-order fightback, their lead is already 218 and they could add a few more runs to their tally on Day 3.

The Proteas will have a stiff challenge in hand when they come out to bat in the second innings in the WTC 2025 final. Most of their batters did not look ready for a fight in the first essay. Also, Australia's bowling attack possesses great quality, which was evident in the first innings as well, with Cummins claiming six wickets and Starc chipping in with two crucial scalps.

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Probability of South Africa chasing down target set by Australia in WTC final pretty low

Chasing in Test matches at the Lord's Cricket Ground has never been easy, particularly when the opposition has set the team batting fourth a target in excess of 200. In the history of Test cricket, there have only been four instances when a target of more than 200 has been successfully chased down at the venue.

West Indies hold the record for the highest successful chase in a Test match at Lord's. They made 344-1 against England way back in June 1984 after being set a target of 342. Post 2000, only two such instances have been registered. England chased down 277 against New Zealand in June 2022 and 282, also against the Kiwis, in May 2004.

Going by history and the fact that Australia possess a high-quality bowling attack, Cummins and co. are favorites to retain the WTC crown. It's not to say that South Africa are out of the reckoning. On both days of the WTC 2025 final, they have shown remarkable resolve to stay in the contest. However, it has been the bowlers who have kept them afloat. Can their batters rise to the occasion on Day 3?