Asia Cup 2025 qualification scenarios: How can Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan qualify for the Super 4 round?

Bangladesh
Bangladesh's win over Afghanistan has thrown Group B of the 2025 Asia Cup wide open [Image credit: Getty]

After a relatively dull first week, the 2025 Asia Cup finally gained momentum with a thrilling contest between Afghanistan and Bangladesh in Abu Dhabi on September 16. Facing elimination, Bangladesh produced a spirited performance to upstage Afghanistan by eight runs to leave Group B wide open.

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Sri Lanka are sitting pretty at the moment, at the top of Group B with wins in both their games. Bangladesh have played all three of their matches in the group stage, winning two and losing the lone outing to Sri Lanka.

Meanwhile, the defeat today leaves Afghanistan in a precarious position with one win in two games. The fourth side in the group, Hong Kong, lost all three matches and are officially eliminated.

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The final Group B fixture between Sri Lanka and Afghanistan has plenty at stake for the two teams and Bangladesh. Yet, the Lankans already have one foot in the Super Four stage of the Asia Cup, thanks to their four points in two games.

However, even with an impressive net run rate of +1.546, a loss by around 70 runs or with 50 balls to spare against the Afghans will take their net run rate below Bangladesh's, thereby eliminating them from the competition. The equation is straightforward for Afghanistan - a win over Sri Lanka will see them through to the Super Fours, thanks to a better net run rate over Bangladesh.

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For Sri Lanka, a win or even a loss by less than approximately 70 runs or 50 balls to spare will see them through to the Super Fours. As for Bangladesh, a Sri Lankan win over Afghanistan will ensure their qualification to the Super Fours.

The Tigers can also qualify if Afghanistan beats Sri Lanka by a massive margin of over 70 runs or with 50 balls to spare (approximately). The all-important Sri Lanka-Afghanistan clash will be played in Abu Dhabi on Thursday, September 18.

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How can Pakistan qualify for the 2025 Asia Cup Super Fours?

The equation is straightforward when it comes to Group A of the 2025 Asia Cup. With two dominant wins in their first two games, Team India are already through to the Super Fours. On the opposite end of the spectrum, Oman have been eliminated from the tournament with losses in each of their first two outings.

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India's arch-rivals, Pakistan, have a do-or-die encounter against the UAE at Dubai tomorrow, September 17. Both teams have won and lost a game each in their first two encounters.

The winner of the Pakistan-UAE clash will join Team India as the second team from Group A advancing to the Super Fours. Should Pakistan lose against the UAE, their 2025 Asia Cup campaign will officially come to an end.

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Edited by Venkatesh Ravichandran
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