Why Virat Kohli should bat at No.4 in World Cup

I have been reading quite a few outlandish suggestions being made to get India out of the mess that they have entangled themselves in ahead of the World Cup: move Shikhar Dhawan to No.4, bat Stuart Binny as an opener and promote MS Dhoni in the batting order are only some of them.

You can discuss as much as you want, but none of these are happening this close to the tournament. Dhoni isn’t just Captain Cool, but Captain Stubborn too. This Indian team, in sticking to its ways, has lived by the sword so far and, as it appears, will die by the sword – oblivious to what is happening around it.

They started learning lessons when they were thrashed 3-0 in the ODI series in England in 2011 following the World Cup victory, and more than 3 years have passed by, they still are learning lessons. Are they learning it right, though?

Shikhar Dhawan – Out of form or outclassed?

Take Shikhar Dhawan’s ODI career for example. What ensued post his man-of-the-series performance in Champions Trophy 2013 reveals a lot. Sadly, though, the team hasn’t picked up anything of value.

Assignment 1: 5 ODIs against West Indies in West Indies. Dhawan averages 27. Inference: The law of averages was catching up to him after a dream run in England and he had lost a bit of form.

Assignment 2: 4 ODIs against Zimbabwe in Zimbabwe. Dhawan averages 52.25. Inference: Back in form.

Assignment 3: 6 ODIs in the ‘who scores more 300s’ series against Australia. Dhawan averages 56.8. It was followed by an average of 53 in 3 ODIs against West Indies, again at home. Inference: Dhawan was cashing in on his good form. (At least, that is what we were asked to believe. The theory didn’t last long, though.)

Assignment 4: He, then, travelled to South Africa, only to score 12 and 0 in the 2 ODIs. The misery got doubled up with him averaging 20.25 in the 4 ODIs in New Zealand. Inference: Experts reckoned Dhawan had again lost his form.

Assignment 5: Asia Cup on the dead Bangladesh decks. Dhawan averages 60.66. Dhawan, then, played 6 ODIs – 3 each against West Indies and Sri Lanka – in India. Inference: Dhawan, averaging 64.5, was back in his prime.

Assignment 6: Carlton Mid ODI tri-series in Australia, involving England as the third team. No prizes for guessing the outcome. The left-hander ended up averaging 12.25 in four matches. Inference: Dhawan is out of form.

The only exception to Dhawan’s case is his performances in England, where he has scored 518 runs in 9 matches at an average of 74. The ODI decks in England aren’t the same anymore (read this). Limited overs cricket performances in England during this period aren’t really indicators of how well a batsman can cope up with conditions assisting fast bowlers.

That India has failed to win a single ODI in South Africa, New Zealand and Australia after being crowned as the CT 2013 champions says something. It is important to understand that decks outside subcontinent can, at times, be subcontinental or flat.

Coming back to our case, the conclusion to it is simple: When Dhawan goes out of subcontinental conditions, he doesn’t go out of form, but gets outplayed.

When asked about Dhawan, Dhoni, however, had something different to say during the recently concluded tri-series: "That's where experience counts. It's not like every cricketer goes through a patch where he keeps scoring runs. Shikhar didn't have a Test series in England, but I felt he did decently well in the ODIs. So it's important for him to be himself, back his strengths, whatever his strength is because the change of format can really work in your favour.

"You have to be a bit more expressive. You can play your big shots. It is always about those first 10-15 minutes. You play a couple of good shots, you hit the middle of the bat and you are back in form. Again as I said, form is abstract.”

The Indian captain still believes that his opener is out of form. When you don’t identify what your problem is, how do you think you will solve it? And this is exactly why I think you would be wasting your time if you are trying to analyse something that is highly unlikely to happen: Dhawan will open the innings, Dhoni will bat at No.6 and Binny isn’t opening (rather he shouldn’t).

Kohli at No. 4 v Kohli at No. 3

So, let’s come to something that is in our control: Virat Kohli’s batting position. Dhoni has hinted at the possibility of Kohli batting down the order depending on the match situation. An individual’s batting position isn’t just decided by what is best for him; you also need to consider what is best for the team.

A simple case: Kohli did bat at No.3 in New Zealand and South Africa, but India weren’t able to win any of the 7 ODIs. It isn’t like the conventional way is working wonders, so why not try something else? Not that this move will solve everything that is wrong with the Indian team at the moment, but it will make sure they solve one of the few problems they are facing now: the inability to get contributions from both No.3 and No.4.

Will a No.4 get enough deliveries to influence the match?

Let’s take a look at four of the high-profile series that took place in Australia-New Zealand since October 2014 – the co-hosts of the upcoming World Cup – to find out when the No.4s of teams have come into bat, as the first concern that has been raised against Kohli’s demotion is that he wouldn’t get as many overs as he should to create an impact.

Australia v South Africa

Venue Australian No. 4 South African No. 4 Perth 35.2 overs 45.3 overs Perth 45.3 overs 43.1 overs Canberra 18.3 overs (189-2 in 31.3 overs) 23.2 overs (143-2 in 26.4 overs) MCG 39.1 overs 34.5 overs SCG 28.1 overs (137-2 in 21.5 overs) 17.5 overs (161-2 in 32.1 overs) Carlton Mid ODI Tri-series

Venue Australian No.4 England’s No. 4 India’s No. 4 SCG 37.2 overs 49.3 overs - MCG 27.2 overs (115-2 in 22.4 overs) - 42.4 overs Brisbane - DNB 35.3 overs Hobart 33.5 overs 27.4 overs (132-2 in 22.4 overs - Perth - 37.5 overs 22.5 overs (103-2 in 27.2 overs) Perth 33.5 overs 31.5 overs - New Zealand v South Africa

Venue New Zealand No. 4 South Africa No. 4 Mount Maunganui 40.4 overs 16.5 overs 42.1 overs Mount Maunganui 16.5 overs (169-2 in 33.1 overs) 41.5 overs New Zealand v Sri Lanka

Venue New Zealand No. 4 Sri Lankan No. 4 Christchurch 43.2 overs 42.4 overs Hamilton 37 overs 27.1 overs (116-2 in 22.5 overs) Nelson 42.3 overs 29.5 overs (113-2 in 20.1 overs) Dunedin 39.1 overs 23.5 overs (141-2 in 26.1 overs) Dunedin 36.2 overs 36.3 overs Wellington 46.3 overs 17.1 overs (175-2 in 32.5 overs) If you look at the tables above, you would understand that it hasn’t been the case at all. The number 4s have had plenty of batting time: out of the 37 occasions, the number 4s have come in before the 20-over mark 23 times – out of which 12 times before the 10-over mark.

Of the remaining 12 occasions, 11 times the teams have been in comfortable positions, which is indicated by the scores in brackets. So, either Kohli will be coming in with plenty of deliveries to face or when the team is in a good position. Whichever way, it doesn’t affect the team.

Interestingly, the only one instance of a No.4 coming in late involves India: the Men in Blue were 103-2 in 27.2 overs in their very recent ODI, against England at Perth. Although, the No.4 wasn’t Kohli. It was Suresh Raina. Kohli had come in at No.3, with the scoreboard reading 83-1 in 20.1 overs, which brings us to the next point.

Situation-based batting order

Why have only one when you can have two?

Kohli coming in at No. 4 is not a constant. It depends on the situation that India find themselves in at the batting crease, which Dhoni was quick to clarify. Kohli would only be demoted if India lose a wicket early. I have always believed that cricket needs to move from position-based batting orders to situation-based batting orders. You need to be flexible and play according to the situation.

You can’t open with Hashim Amla in a 10-over match, although he is your regular opener, and you can’t send in Jacques Kallis if your first wicket falls in the 30th over and the team needs to score at 9 runs per over. Likewise, you can’t play Eoin Morgan anywhere on low and slow wickets, leave alone in the middle order, despite him being a top class T20 player: something that Kolkata Knight Riders found out the hard way.

In case of India, if the openers fare well and Kohli doesn’t get demoted, the No.4 may or may not even be required to bat with the likes of Dhoni, Raina and Jadeja coming down the order.

Kill two birds with one stone

In addition to all these, who is your No.4 if Kohli bats at No.3? Ajinkya Rahane? Someone who has been a proven failure at the slot? Not just that he averages 23.88 in his 9 innings there, but his drawbacks have been quite obvious: he needs to accelerate, as the position demands him to, and does it without having settled in; as a result, he gets out. That he can neither rotate strike nor slog balls out of the park only add to his woes.

Ambati Rayudu? Rayudu’s skills are limited when it comes to playing overseas. He can neither play swing nor slog pacers; it means he can neither be sent in when a couple of wickets fall quickly nor be asked to up the tempo after a steady 140/2 in 30-odd overs. A good addition back home, he isn’t yet ready to do it in unfamiliar conditions. It also explains why he hasn’t been as successful with Mumbai Indians after the first couple of seasons; he was demoted following the arrival of Rohit Sharma and has since then struggled to make his presence felt..

Dhoni wouldn't move anywhere from No.6. I find it amazing that he is reluctant to be flexible with his batting position despite saying this very recently: “I know a lot of teams are not very flexible. They want their respective players to bat at a certain slot, but cricket I feel has evolved. It's the number of overs that is more relative to the game. For example, if you have a Super Over, you don't really send your openers. In a normal game, you will send your openers but in the Super Over, you will send somebody who can slog and hit the ball. You have to adapt yourself according to the demands of the game."

So much for flexibility.

Suresh Raina will be sorted out in such an important position. India could have done with Robin Uthappa in the batting order, someone who could have been floated around to suit the team’s needs. Instead, he was tried as an opener: a slot that he is never going to succeed at outside subcontinent with his suspect technique against the moving ball. However, if you take that out, he is adept in dealing with the rising ball and can clear the ropes. An opportunity missed?

The team management has dug a hole for itself. Now, it needs to stop digging further and look for practical solutions. It seems to have found one by chance. Dhoni’s rationale behind demoting Kohli is poles apart from why I think he should be batting lower down the order: he hasn’t still figured out that Rahane and Rayudu are terrible options at No.4; he just wants to strengthen the lower-middle order. But as long as it solves the problem, it doesn’t matter. The end sometimes justifies the means.

If Kohli occupies the No.4 slot, Rahane can be expected to do a reasonable job at No.3 if a wicket falls early - which is when he is likely to be promoted ahead of Kohli. Opening and batting at one-down are very much the same. Kane Williamson, Ian Bell, Gautam Gambhir, Kumar Sangakkara and many others have alternated between the two positions and have pulled it off admirably well.

Rahane needs powerplay restrictions to get his innings going, and this is as close as you can get to making use of him in an ODI side if he isn’t allowed to open.

What scoreboard pressure?

Coming in at 30/2 in 8 overs is same as coming in at 8/1 in 3 overs knowing you are more likely to have an opener at the other end who could get out anytime and the batsman who follows at No.4 isn’t any better. Both the situations are equally worse.

It is understandable if you have all your slots covered and you play your best batsman at No. 3. You don’t, so you have to do something out of the box to maximise the contributions from every player. Also, the best chance of taking a wicket for a bowler in Australia and New Zealand is with the new ball, so why do you play it into their hands? It isn't being defensive. It is a calculated move. There is a fine line between the two.

When you tinker with a player's batting position, the first thing that should be made sure is that if the player will be able to deliver to the same extent in his new role. The kind of player Kohli is, it comes as the last. And his numbers at No.4 only justify it: 1721 runs in 35 innings at an average of 61.46. One-third of his ODI centuries have come when he has come in as a two-down batsman: that’s a century in every 5 matches.

The move will plug a couple of loopholes: One, India will manage one more batsman who can contribute – in the form of Ajinkya Rahane at No.3; two, India will still have a world-class batsman, just that he will be batting at No.4 in some matches.

Now, tell me why should Kohli bat at No.3?