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2019 is upon us and while the start of the Formula 1 season is still some time away, we can make some bold predictions for what will have transpired come November. Predicting how drivers will perform at their new teams, and who will ultimately prevail, is a very difficult task, but the patterns of previous seasons can provide us with an insight.
This year brings us what some have been branding as the most impressive overall driver line-up in the sport's history, a claim that I don't believe is exaggerating much at all.
From a technical regulation change that should enable better racing to a legend getting even closer to the very top of the pinnacle of motorsport, there are some fascinating stories brewing as early as January.
#1 More overtaking
Overtaking is always an issue that divides the Formula 1 fanbase and Liberty Media have recognised this by implementing a new, simpler front wing for 2019. The theory is that when following a car closely, the front downforce (and therefore grip) heavily reduces for the car behind, meaning that even much faster cars struggle to get past.
This "Dirty air" effect has been exacerbated by the overall increase in front downforce since the 2017 regulation changes, meaning that on-track overtakes have significantly reduced since 2016. Even the increase in DRS zones haven't negated the damage which these much faster cars have done to on-track action, more had to be done.
The simplification of the front wing means they have less overall effect on the cars and losing the grip from them has a smaller impact. This should work but let's also hope that this alteration doesn't make it too easy to overtake, as if the DRS is too powerful then the art of defending will be all but lost, which would be a crying shame.
However, despite the concerns expressed by some, I believe that these new wings will increase overtaking opportunities, but don't expect drivers to stop complaining about dirty air on the radio.
#2 Hamilton to win a sixth title
Here's what's probably my boldest prediction for the upcoming season, because it ultimately depends on a lot of pieces falling into place in the near future. What I don't doubt is that Lewis Hamilton has been in the form of his life and if he doesn't win the 2019 driver's championship, it probably won't be down to him.
The Brit is simply the fastest and most reliable pilot on the grid, if anybody finishes above him come Abu Dhabi, they will be champion. Meanwhile, Mercedes have consistently produced the fastest and usually most reliable challenger every year since 2014, a slipup in car design would be unprecedented from the German outfit.
As for the competition?
Ferrari are once again in turmoil, as Maurizio Arrivabene has been forced out the door thanks to some classic Scuderia political upheaval. The Maranello outfit can barely keep their own ship afloat, let alone challenge Mercedes, I expect them to have a mountain to climb when Albert Park rolls around.
Honda have caught their engine opposition rapidly and Red Bull probably have the best chassis on the grid, but Max Verstappen still has to round off his raw edges if he's to challenge a competitor as experienced as Hamilton over a 21-race season. Any other team would require a huge hike in the performance of their cars to get close to Mercedes, something that really isn't possible, with a slight opportunity for one outfit...
#3 Renault to catch the top 3 teams
Since returning as a constructor in the 2016 season, Renault have improved on their constructor's championship position year-on-year. 9th in 2016, 6th in 2017 and 4th with the coveted "best of the rest" spot last year shows impressive progress, even for a team as well funded as they are.
Daniel Ricciardo joins from Red Bull this year, something that wouldn't be happening if the Aussie wasn't impressed with what the French outfit had to offer, and I'm not talking about his salary.
Ricciardo is a true racer, he wouldn't be moving teams after spending his entire F1 career in the RBR setup if he didn't believe the yellow cars can climb the order in the coming years. Not to mention Nico Hulkenberg as well, the German being an extremely consistent and fast driver, usually finishing best of the rest in Grands Prix.
I don't expect Renault to finish higher than fourth in the constructor's championship, but the RS19 should allow the gap to third to reduce from a mammoth 297 in 2018.
#4 McLaren to struggle... Again
McLaren are currently enduring the worst period of their history, there's no getting away from that. No win since 2012, and no podium since 2014, they're firmly in the doldrums with no clear way out. Lando Norris has been promoted to full-time driver and Carlos Sainz joins from Renault in the hope that they can turn the papaya cars' luck around, but I believe they'll continue to struggle at the back.
Australia 2018 was classic flattering to deceive by the Woking outfit; Fernando Alonso's fantastic performance meant that he was able to hold off Max Verstappen's Red Bull to the chequered flag but this was the only time that McLaren showed they could fight.
It all went downhill from there, culminating in some of the worst racing and qualifying performances of the team's history and I don't think that 2019 will be much better. Sainz is a good driver, but he's no Fernando Alonso, and can't be relied upon to score points in races when he should be outside the top 10. Norris, meanwhile, is quick, but he's also a rookie, an upgrade on Stoffel Vandoorne, but hardly a different class of driver.
McLaren need a huge upgrade in both their chassis' pace and their Renault power unit to be closer to the forefront of the sport, and I hope I'm wrong on this one, but I don't see that happening.
#5 Sauber to finish as the new "Best of the Rest"
After 2 dismal years, Sauber were firmly back in the midfield scrap in 2018 and the Swiss team are on a huge upward trajectory going into this season. Sauber may have lost Charles LeClerc to Ferrari but they've gained 2007 World Champion Kimi Raikkonen in return from the Scuderia.
Marcus Ericsson had been branded as the worst driver in the sport in previous years, but the Swede had a solid season last year, possibly as a result of upping his game against LeClerc. Also joining the Hinwil outfit is Antonio Giovinazzi, who had a few races for the team back in 2017.
Raikkonen had a superb 2018 and despite his age, the Finn's still producing some of the best performances of his long and illustrious career. Force India were the only team outside the seemingly perennial top 3 teams stood on the podium in 2018 and I believe Sauber could repeat the feat in 2019.
I don't see any of Mercedes, Ferrari or Red Bull falling away and Renault should join them in the top band of teams, but Sauber could well be the next highest-placed team in constructor's championship come Abu Dhabi '19.
