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Max Verstappen has pretty much locked in the 2022 World Drivers' title to his name. He is already halfway there given his lead of 104 points over his nearest rival Charles Leclerc and of 106 over Sergio Perez.
With five races to go, Leclerc would have to win each of them and Verstappen would have to finish pointless or not race at all to let the title slip, which is highly unlikely. Further, Carlos Sainz and George Russell are already out of title contention post their P3 and P14 results in Singapore.
Now, it is only a matter of time before the Dutch prodigy picks up his second title in a row. This season, however, has been far easier for the Red Bull driver compared to what he faced in 2021. Unlike last year's final lap debacle, the 25-year-old will be able to wrap up his season quite early.
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The Japanese Grand Prix is the first realistic opportunity where Verstappen can be crowned world champion. If he does not win the race with the fastest lap, however, there will be a few criteria to be matched by Verstappen, Leclerc, and Perez if the Dutchman is to lift the trophy here.
#1 What happens if Max Verstappen wins the Japanese GP without the fastest lap?
If Max Verstappen wins the Japanese GP without the fastest lap, his total would be 366 points (+25). If Leclerc finishes third or lower, Verstappen will be crowned world champion as he will have at least a 114-point lead going into the US GP. It will be impossible for Leclerc to catch up to this big a lead.
On account of Verstappen winning the GP, Perez will be automatically out of contention (irrespective of his finishing position). Even if the Mexican manages a second-place finish (253 points), Verstappen would've managed a 113-point lead, and he only needs a 112-point lead.
#2 What happens if Verstappen finishes second with or without the fastest lap?
Max Verstappen could still win the world championship without actually winning. Perez, however, will also have a role to play in this case. In scenario one, if Verstappen clocks in the fastest lap and finishes second, he will have 360 points. If Leclerc finishes fifth or lower, and Perez finishes fourth or lower, Verstappen will have a lead of at least 113 points over both.
In scenario two, if Max Verstappen finishes second without the fastest lap (359 points), he can still win. Leclerc will have to finish fifth or lower without the fastest lap and Perez will have to finish fourth or lower without the fastest lap. Going into the US GP, Verstappen will have a lead of at least 112 points in this case.
#3 What happens if Max Verstappen places third with or without the fastest lap?
If Max Verstappen finishes third with the fastest lap (357 points), Leclerc must finish sixth or lower and Perez must finish fifth or lower. This will allow him to create a gap of 112 points anyways and retain his title.
Just in case Verstappen does not manage the fastest lap with his third-place finish (356 points), and if one of the other two does, then Leclerc will have to finish seventh or lower and Perez will have to finish sixth or lower to maintain the 112-point lead gap.
#4 What happens if Max Verstappen places fourth with or without the fastest lap?
Similar to other cases, Max Verstappen will be required to maintain a gap of at least 112 points over both Leclerc and Perez. If he finishes fourth with the fastest lap (354 points), Leclerc will have to finish eighth or lower, and Perez seventh or lower. In this case, the Dutchman will have a lead of 113 points.
In the second scenario, if Verstappen finishes fourth without the fastest lap, the other two will simply have to finish in their respective eighth and seventh places, without the fastest laps.
The same will apply again to Max Verstappen in the scenario of a fifth-place finish, with or without the fastest lap
#5 What if Verstappen places sixth with or without the fastest lap?
In a similar case to the others, the Red Bull driver will be required to keep a lead of at least 112 points over his Ferrari rival and Red Bull teammate. If he finishes sixth with the fastest lap (350 points), Leclerc will have to finish with only one point or pointless and Perez will have to finish with two points or less.
If the Dutchman finishes in sixth without the fastest lap (349 points), Leclerc cannot finish in points and Perez needs to finish with two points or less (maximum 237).
All eyes will be on Max Verstappen and Red Bull as they head towards the 2022 F1 Japanese GP. Realistically, the driver's title will only be one race away just in case Verstappen fails to clinch it at Suzuka, which looks highly unlikely.
