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If we can believe what Toto Wolff subtly signalled in a recent interview, then Max Verstappen is not on the table for Mercedes, as the team is looking to stick with its current lineup. Despite all the reports about a possible alliance, with some even tracking Wolff and Verstappen's yachts, it does appear that the parties have kicked the can down the road for now.
While there are many who would still think that a partnership between Max Verstappen and Mercedes will always be on the table, it's not that easy. In fact, if we analyze the situation, there is a strong likelihood that the partnership will not come to fruition, at least for the foreseeable future.
George Russell is not going to sign a one-year extension
Mercedes boss Toto Wolff has made it clear that for now, the team's immediate future will be with George Russell and Kimi Antonelli. While there hasn't been any announcement regarding either of the two drivers, the detail that seems public for now is that both of them have their contracts coming to an end this season.
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For George Russell, it's safe to say that the current state of affairs, where the Brit has been patiently holding fort while the Max Verstappen situation continues to develop in the meantime, has not been ideal. At the same time, this is something where the frustration has sometimes shone through as well.
After all of the ordeal, if Toto Wolff comes up to George Russell and offers him a single-year extension with an option for another year, then that's not going to go down well.
It's not going to be a sign of a team or a boss that has faith in his driver after all he has done and is just holding on to him until Max Verstappen's situation clears out.
This is precisely why one would think that Toto Wolff is going to offer Russell a multi-year contract. Once a multi-year contract is given to the British driver, that's one seat out of the two at Mercedes that's off the table.
If Kimi Antonelli is as good as advertised, the sophomore year would warrant a long-term partnership
Kimi Antonelli's first F1 season has been fine. It's not as bad as it has been made out to be by many, as the Italian is still seemingly learning the ropes.
There are flashes of brilliance for sure from the Italian, but whether he is the 'next Max Verstappen' is going to become evident in the next 18 months.
If Kimi Antonelli is as good as advertised and he is going to be the next big talent in F1, then it makes zero sense for Toto Wolff to shelve him or send him to another team after spending two years at Mercedes.
If that's the case, then it closes the second possible pathway for Max Verstappen to join the team.
The conditions for Max Verstappen to Mercedes don't align
Finally, the biggest problem with the conditions that would enable a Max Verstappen to Mercedes move appears to be highly unlikely. Either Toto Wolff has to hand George Russell a single-year extension, which would be a serious thumbs down for the driver and the team's trust in him, or Kimi Antonelli doesn't live up to his promise and ends up being a bit of a liability for the team.
These conditions, however, have to be coupled with Mercedes having arguably the best car in F1 and Red Bull having a disastrous start to the new regulations.
To break this down, if Mercedes has the best car in F1 in 2026, either George Russell or Kimi Antonelli is going to win the title. At that moment, would Toto Wolff want to disrupt a hierarchy that has been put in place and bring in Max Verstappen?
Maybe he would, but the smart money would be on keeping things as stable as possible, something he already did when Mercedes was dominating the sport with Lewis Hamilton.
Conclusion
While one cannot discount a Max Verstappen-Mercedes alliance at any point in the future, one has to understand that sometimes, there are reasons a few partnerships do not happen in the sport. It has to do with timelines, and sometimes they just don't fit.
At least for the foreseeable future, it does appear that the Max Verstappen-Mercedes partnership might not be on the table.
