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In the both games against England and Costa Rica, Cesare Prandelli has featured a 4-3-2-1 which relies on bombing fullbacks, keeping hold off the ball and relying on Balotelli to get goals.
Italy vs England (4-3-2-1): Sirigu, Darmian, Barzagli, Paletta, Chiellini, De Rossi, Pirlo, Verratti, Candreva, Marchisio, Balotelli.
Italy vs Costa Rica (4-3-2-1): Buffon, Abate, Barzagli, Chiellini, Darmian, Motta, De Rossi, Pirlo, Candreva, Marchisio, Balotelli.
In the England game, Italy dominated the midfield battle and their right flank and that saw them clinch the game. Darmian in particular impressed. In the Costa Rica game, Paletta’s poor performance led Chiellini go to central defence and Darmian in an unfamiliar left-back role. His influence was diminished, Chiellini had a bad game while Abate was virtually non-existent. Ahead of them, the decision to play Motta over Verratti backfired as Italy could not withstand the pressing of Costa Rica and Verratti would have provided another outlet to keep the ball. Motta didn’t play well and so may be benched in this game. Upfront, it was a poor game from Balotelli.
Once Italy went 1-0 down, Prandelli reverted to an extremely attacking 4-4-2 with Cassano and Balotelli up top along with Cerci and Insigne on the flanks. It played into the hands of the Costa Rican back three and they were surprisingly comfortable towards the end.
Now, with the shock of the Costa Rica game beyond them, Italy look set to face a do or die game against Uruguay. Owing to their superior goal difference, a draw is enough for Italy in this game. If they lose however, then they exit the group stage for the second consecutive World Cup. Daniele de Rossi is ruled out of the game due to injury, but Mattia de Sciglio has recovered and is in line to replace his club team-mate Iganzio Abate in the team. However, that is only one part of the changes, as Prandelli looks set to embrace the “Turin” way and lineup in a 3-5-2 formation.
According to @ItalianNT, Italy have been training with a 3-5-2 in training since that game while @ADP1113 showed visual evidence of Italy lining up in a clear 3-5-2 in training.
Defenders: Cesare Prandelli has shown till now a lack of faith in Bonucci’s defensive abilities, and he hasn’t played a game till now. Rumours were that Daniele de Rossi was initially expected to be in his place in the heart of the 3-man defence (a role he performed admirably well against Spain in Euro 2012) but his injury has forced Prandelli to play Bonucci. Either side of him are his two Juventus allies, Barzagli and Chiellini will lineup. The three share a great chemistry and while they have the odd lapse, they are perfectly suited to stop Uruguay’s 2 man attack. Bonucci is also good on the ball and will look to distribute out of defence.
The two wing-backs will be De Sciglio and Darmian. Both have played as full-back mostly for their clubs and so it will be interesting how will they adjust to being wing-backs. However, both are good in attack and with lesser defensive responsibilities can thrive. Darmian will look to further his stock here while De Sciglio will have a chance to show the world just how good he is.
Midfielders: It would be interesting to see how Andrea Pirlo fares as he reverts (as expected) to his favoured defensive midfield role. While his advanced positioning helped him escape attention in the England game, it played right into the hands of Costa Rica. Edinson Cavani is a workhorse and he will look to hassle Pirlo, just like he did against Gerrard in the England game. Pirlo is a very good Regista, but his age and lack of mobility means he is not as good defensively. Infront of Pirlo, Marco Verratti is expected to start. The man who is regarded as Pirlo’s heir, Marco is also a very tidy passer, having a passing accuracy of 97% against England.
However, he is also found wanting defensively at times as he is too carefree on the ball and hasn’t played well when under severe pressure (he was arguably the worst midfielder on the pitch in Chelsea 2-0 PSG). Alongside Verratti, Marchisio is the third midfielder expected to play. Another Juventus player, Marchisio is a defensively hard-working player whilst being good on the ball and capable of driving forward. His goal against England perfectly showed that he is able to strike the ball. The midfield is full of technical brilliance but looks a little weak defensively in the absence of De Rossi.
Forwards: It is still undecided on who will feature up front with Balotelli. Prandelli has experimented both with Cassano (who played alongside Balotelli in Euro 2012) and Immobile (the Serie A top scorer). There have been calls from a lot of people to include Immobile in this game as Cassano was poor in the Costa Rica game. Immobile will provide a different outlet for Italy and ensures Balotelli won’t be isolated like he was. Cassano is a different player however. He has shown a tendency to frequently drift on the left and look for the channel in between the right-back and right centre-back. It will be a touch and go decision, but it looks like Prandelli will favour Immobile here.
Expected lineup (3-5-2): Buffon; Barzagli, Bonucci, Chiellini; Darmian, Verratti, Pirlo, Marchisio, De Sciglio; Balotelli, Immobile.
The alternatives
Prandelli can lineup with a 3-4-2-1 or 3-4-1-2 here too. Both formations will see Pirlo being alongside Verratti or Motta in a midfield two with Marchisio in a more advanced role. Verratti’s poor defensive ability will see him being dropped if this is the case. Incase of a 3-4-1-2, Immobile/Cassano will be dropped for Candreva or Cerci who will play in a role similar to what Candreva played against England, laterally moving right. Due to Candreva’s success, he will most likely play in that role.
Finally, it could be that Prandelli just ditches the idea of a 3-man defence in the last minute (very, very unlikely) and goes with the standard 4 man defence. That would see Bonucci dropped from the defence (Darmian-Barzagli-Chiellini-De Sciglio) and Motta added into midfield. The two likely formations are a 4-4-2 diamond with Pirlo at the base, Verratti and Motta in midfield and Marchisio at the tip of the diamond along with Balotelli and Cassano/Immobile up top. The other formation is that Prandelli sticks to the same formation that worked against England but failed against Costa Rica. This would have the same lineup as in the Costa Rica game with the exception of Abate being replaced by De Sciglio (De Sciglio LB and Darmian RB) while Verratti replaces the injured De Rossi.
However, that is the exact reason this should not happen. Daniele de Rossi is a big miss and it is a doubt whether the Italian midfield can cope without him and emphasise their superiority to such an extent that a 4-man defence won’t have much problems with Suarez. That is why, we should see a 3-man defence against Uruguay.
