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The UEFA Nations League begins this week and one of the most intriguing fixtures of the opening round of games comes between a pair of bonafide heavyweights in England and Spain. The two former World Cup winners face off at Wembley on Saturday in what should be a highly-anticipated meeting.
Last time the two sides faced each other, it was in a friendly fixture at Wembley in November 2016 and the final score was 2-2, as very late goals from Iago Aspas and Isco stole what would’ve been a great victory from under the nose of then-interim England boss Gareth Southgate.
Of course, plenty has changed in the two years since that match, and the fortunes of both sides have certainly differed. So here are 5 reasons why – this time at least – England will defeat Spain.
#1 The post-World Cup momentum lies with England
Saturday’s game will be the first one for both England and Spain following the 2018 World Cup in Russia, and coming out of that historic tournament it’s pretty clear to say that the momentum lies with Southgate’s Three Lions.
England were one of the sides who went above and beyond all expectations in the World Cup, reaching the semi-finals for only the second time on foreign soil, and while the story didn’t end in the way English fans might’ve hoped, Southgate’s largely young side walked away from Russia with their heads held high and their fans firmly behind them.
For Spain though, the World Cup was essentially a disaster. Boss Julen Lopetegui was fired on the eve of the tournament when Real Madrid announced he’d be taking over at the Bernabeu post-Russia, and although Fernando Hierro quickly stepped into the role, he didn’t really manage to steady the ship.
La Roja drew with Portugal 3-3 in their opening game – one of the best of the tournament – but then scraped past Iran, only drew with already-eliminated Morocco and crashed out to the hosts following a penalty shoot-out in a damning game that saw them dominate possession but create few chances.
Whether World Cup results are an indicator of how this game will go is a question mark, but England most definitely have more momentum than their opponents coming into the game, and Southgate’s men are the type of side to capitalise on that.
#2 Spain’s old, dominant team is now gone
A decade ago, Spain were the most feared side in international football. Thanks to a revolutionary style largely inspired by the dominant club side of that era – Barcelona – as well as legitimate world-class players in every position, La Roja marched to three straight tournament victories, winning Euro 2008, World Cup 2010 and Euro 2012. Players like Xavi, Andres Iniesta, Fernando Torres and Carles Puyol were at the top of their game.
Now though? The last of that generation – Iniesta, Gerard Pique and David Silva – retired from international football after this summer’s World Cup, and while there are a small handful of stars from those tournaments remaining in the current squad, namely Sergio Ramos and Sergio Busquets, for the most part, the team is missing that experience of success that their predecessors had.
The likes of Saul, Marco Asensio, Isco and Thiago Alcantara are fine players no doubt, but they don’t provoke the same feelings of fear in their opponents like Iniesta and Torres did in their prime. And while tiki-taka was revolutionary a decade ago, today it almost feels out of date, with modern successful sides using various other gameplans to great success.
Where an England side of 2010 might’ve simply folded in the face of such an intimidating opponent, the England of 2018 will know they have very little to fear from new-look Spain – and that could mean success for the Three Lions.
#3 Spain could be susceptible to set-pieces
No team in the 2018 World Cup made quite so much of their set-pieces as England. The Three Lions scored 12 goals in the tournament, and just three of them – two against whipping boys Panama – came from open play. Harry Kane scored three penalties, but the other six were all delivered by set-piece routines.
Corners, in particular, proved to be a dangerous weapon for England, with four goals coming directly from them, as Southgate and his coaching staff deployed a tactic nicknamed the ‘Love Train’ that had apparently been utilised by League Two side Lincoln City.
Spain meanwhile conceded six goals in Russia, and worryingly for a side about to face England, four of them came from dead-ball situations. Sure, you can’t really knock them for conceding a penalty and a world-class free-kick from Cristiano Ronaldo against Portugal, but the defending of a corner that led to a second Moroccan goal was woeful, and worse still was the defending from a corner that saw them concede a penalty against Russia.
Against England, Spain simply cannot hope to mark in the same sloppy way during dead-ball situations and come away without conceding. Southgate’s men are too well-drilled – and defenders like John Stones and Harry Maguire too good in the air – to allow them to get away with it. If they haven’t improved in that area, it might well cost them on Saturday.
#4 Luis Enrique could change the system
One telling factor of the lack of success for Spain in the World Cup was the fact that the tiki-taka gameplan that had served them so well in their previous tournament victories simply didn’t work as well as it had done in the past. Part of that was down to some of the old personnel – Xavi, David Villa, and so on – is missing, but it also felt like opponents had begun to get used to how to deal with the myriad passing.
The Russia game, in particular, was damning – Spain had a massive 79% of possession during the second-round tie, but still only mustered 9 shots on target and it took a fluke own goal to put them ahead. They simply didn’t create enough clear-cut chances to be truly dangerous.
It’s understandable, then, that current reports suggest new boss Luis Enrique is looking to overhaul the system, and that the Madrid-based Spanish press – always suspicious of a Barcelona-style tactic – are behind him in this effort. That’s all well and good, but the likelihood is that a tactical shift to a more direct style will only be beneficial further down the line.
Attempting to veer away from the tiki-taka style in the first game following the World Cup could prove to be a huge risk for Enrique’s side, especially against a side like England who, after the same tournament, appear to know exactly what they want their style to be. Spain’s players could find themselves lost in the translation – and get picked off by Southgate’s Three Lions.
#5 Wembley might finally be a fortress
Ever since it opened in 2007, the big criticism of Wembley – the home of English football – is that it doesn’t offer an intimidating atmosphere for visiting teams, that the fans simply don’t get into the game like they would at a club ground or even at the old Wembley. Plenty of theories have been offered for this – the fans sit too far back from the pitch perhaps – but the truth is probably simpler.
Since the stadium opened in 2007, England fans have largely witnessed abject failure from their side. Steve McClaren’s failed effort to reach Euro 2008 in a 2-3 loss to Croatia is one of the new Wembley’s earliest memories, and while Fabio Capello and Roy Hodgson fared better at points, both men failed on the biggest stage – and failed to get the fans behind their team, too.
That’s all changed under Southgate, as the positive experience that was the World Cup has galvanised fans of England just as Terry Venables’ side galvanised them after the now-legendary Euro 1996. Where England fans would usually dread the international break in September, this time they’ve largely been looking forward to it since the World Cup ended in July.
And so Spain can expect to face a roaring crowd at Wembley on Saturday with the fans finally behind all of the Three Lions and not looking to boo a scapegoat following a failed tournament. The partisan crowd could provide England with the little bit extra they need – a 12th man if you will – to topple their illustrious opponents.
