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After a massive victory this Tuesday over Paris St. Germain, Champions League holders Real Madrid are marching into the quarter-finals – something few people expected to happen following their relatively poor season thus far.
Meanwhile, their biggest rivals Barcelona are poised to make the quarter-finals themselves next week – they go into the second leg of their last 16 tie with Chelsea at 1-1 on aggregate but have an all-important away goal on their side and with Chelsea on a run of bad form, it’s almost impossible to see them gaining a result at Camp Nou.
Despite the two Spanish giants appearing in a combined total of 23 Champions League finals, the biggest game in European football has never been contested between the two. But could the 2017/18 Season finally be the year when the Champions League final is also an El Clasico? Here are five reasons why it could be.
#1 Real Madrid just dumped the most impressive side out of the tournament
After the group stages of this year’s Champions League were over, the side on everyone’s lips was Paris St. Germain. The big-spending French champions scored 25 goals in the group stages – more than any other side and two better than the next highest scorers Liverpool – who didn’t have a side as strong as Bayern Munich to deal with in their group.
They also conceded just 4 goals – only Manchester United and Barcelona conceded lesser, and 3 of those goals came in the 3-1 defeat away at Bayern after both teams had already qualified for the next stage of the competition. With this record – as well as players like Neymar Jr, Kylian Mbappe and Edinson Cavani leading their line, PSG looked like the most dangerous team in the last 16.
When they were drawn with holders Real Madrid, then, it looked like PSG were probably the favourites. Despite Madrid’s greater experience, they hadn’t shown any good form in the group stages having been defeated comprehensively by Tottenham Hotspur at Wembley and finishing in second place in their group.
The lesson learned, now that the tie is done and dusted? Write Madrid off at your peril. They dominated both legs of the clash, eventually winning 5-2 on aggregate. Somehow, Los Blancos made it look easy. And if they can dominate a side as good as PSG like that, who’s going to be able to stop them marching to the final again? It’s hard to see anyone capable.
#2 The Champions League could be the focus for both teams
The key to ensuring that the Champions League final turns out to be an El Clasico could end up being the fact that for both sides, their domestic season is largely over. Barcelona have largely dominated La Liga this season – they haven’t lost a game and have only drawn 6, and with their most recent victory over second-placed Atletico Madrid putting them 8 points clear with 11 games remaining, they’ve practically wrapped the title up.
Real meanwhile sit in the third position currently, but they’re also a massive 15 points behind Barcelona at the top. The likelihood of them winning another La Liga trophy this season seems minimal. On the other hand, they’re also 9 points ahead of 5th placed Sevilla, meaning their Champions League spot for next season is almost sewn up, too.
What does this mean? Well, both sides can essentially take one eye off domestic football and afford to concentrate firmly on the Champions League. They’re already massively dominant over most of their domestic rivals so the odd slip-up won’t really harm them at this stage. They can afford to focus on their European campaigns where other Champions League rivals might not be able to. Which means it’s more likely we’ll see both sides in the final come May.
#3 Nobody knows Guardiola better
While Tottenham are now out of the Champions League and Barcelona may well eliminate Chelsea next week, perhaps the biggest challenge to the Spanish dominance of the competition could come from England, particularly in the form of Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City. City are running away with the Premier League right now and have looked impressive in Europe too, winning 5 of their group games and then defeating Basel on aggregate to make the quarter-finals.
If anyone knows how to stop a Pep Guardiola side, though, it’s his old club Barcelona and his old rivals from his Barca days, Real Madrid.
His record against Real was impressive while he was at Barcelona – 9 wins, 4 draws and just 2 defeats. Since leaving Barca though he’s only faced Los Blancos twice – in a two-legged Champions League semi-final with Bayern Munich in 2013/14 – and it didn’t go well. Bayern were defeated 5-0 on aggregate and Pep lost his first game at the Santiago Bernabeu.
Since leaving Barca, meanwhile, he’s only managed a side against them in two games – again over two legs in the Champions League. This time, in 2014/15, his Bayern side lost 5-3 on aggregate, and although they defeated Barca at the Allianz Arena, they were beaten badly at the Nou Camp – losing 2-0 and failing to gain a shot on target.
Could Pep’s City team beat Real or Barcelona this season? They have the attacking firepower to do so, but Pep himself has recently admitted that he doesn’t see his current side as being on the same level as Barca yet, and while he does have a good record against Real, if any side has learned to play against his tactics it’s his old rivals.
#4 An all-Spanish final isn’t as unlikely as you’d think
The Champions League plays host to sides from all over Europe each year, ranging from teams from the Welsh and Estonian leagues all the way up to the more well-known sides from Spain, England, Italy and Germany. With so many teams from so many top leagues entering the competition each season – even with the introduction of up to four sides from the biggest leagues – you’d expect a final with two sides from the same country involved to be rare.
In fact, that hasn’t been the case, particularly in the past decade. The first Champions League final to be contested by two sides from the same country was the 2002/03 edition when AC Milan defeated Juventus – coincidentally the first time that four teams from top countries were allowed entry – but since 2007/08 it’s happened on four occasions – the all-England final of 2008 between Manchester United and Chelsea; the all-German final of 2012/13 between Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund, and two all-Spanish finals between Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid in 2013/14 and 2015/16.
What does this mean? Well, firstly it suggests that it’s a big surprise that we haven’t already seen an El Clasico Champions League final, particularly when you consider the dominance of Real Madrid and Barcelona in the past decade. And secondly, it means that as two of the best teams remaining in the competition, the odds of it happening this year aren’t as slim as you’d think – four single country finals out of the last ten means it’s not that unlikely. Unless they draw each other in the quarters or semis, of course – something that last happened in the 2010/11 semis, when Barca ran out 3-1 winners on aggregate.
#5 Ronaldo and Messi are hitting form again
It always helps when you’ve got the best players in the world in your team, and while the start of the season saw some debate over whether the dominance of Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi could continue – particularly with the form of players like Neymar and Harry Kane in the early stages of the Champions League. Now though, there can be no question as to who the greatest is.
Both men are still banging goals in and dominating games both in Europe and at home in La Liga – Messi has 24 goals and 12 assists in 27 league games, and in the Champions League he’s scored 4 and assisted in 1 in 7 games. Ronaldo’s domestic form hasn’t been quite as impressive – 16 goals and 4 assists in 21 games, but in the Champions League, he’s been simply phenomenal.
He’s already scored 12 and assisted in 2 in just 8 games in Europe, and more impressively, he’s scored in literally every game Los Blancos have played in the Champions League this season. To put it simply, the Champions League is Ronaldo’s competition. And his greatest rival Messi loves it just as much, having led Barca to four triumphs in the last decade. With those two on top form, who would bet against both sides making the final this year?
