#4 An all-Spanish final isn’t as unlikely as you’d think

The Champions League plays host to sides from all over Europe each year, ranging from teams from the Welsh and Estonian leagues all the way up to the more well-known sides from Spain, England, Italy and Germany. With so many teams from so many top leagues entering the competition each season – even with the introduction of up to four sides from the biggest leagues – you’d expect a final with two sides from the same country involved to be rare.
In fact, that hasn’t been the case, particularly in the past decade. The first Champions League final to be contested by two sides from the same country was the 2002/03 edition when AC Milan defeated Juventus – coincidentally the first time that four teams from top countries were allowed entry – but since 2007/08 it’s happened on four occasions – the all-England final of 2008 between Manchester United and Chelsea; the all-German final of 2012/13 between Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund, and two all-Spanish finals between Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid in 2013/14 and 2015/16.
What does this mean? Well, firstly it suggests that it’s a big surprise that we haven’t already seen an El Clasico Champions League final, particularly when you consider the dominance of Real Madrid and Barcelona in the past decade. And secondly, it means that as two of the best teams remaining in the competition, the odds of it happening this year aren’t as slim as you’d think – four single country finals out of the last ten means it’s not that unlikely. Unless they draw each other in the quarters or semis, of course – something that last happened in the 2010/11 semis, when Barca ran out 3-1 winners on aggregate.