5 things that could go wrong during 2018 FIFA World Cup

Preliminary Draw of the 2018 FIFA World Cup in Russia
The World Cup is heading to Russia...but will it all go to plan?

With 2018 on the horizon, it won’t be long before the attention of the football world turns away from the Champions League, Premier League, La Liga and onto the World Cup – due to take place in the summer in Russia. The excitement of fans was at a peak, a couple of weeks ago, when the draw for the group stages took place.

The enthusiasm and publicity for the draw proved that international football is far from dead as some would suggest, and indeed, the World Cup is still the pinnacle of the sport for many players and fans alike. But that doesn’t mean that anyone is expecting this upcoming tournament to be perfect. Potential problems have already reared their heads, and it could well be possible that this World Cup ends up being a bust.

Why? Here are five possible reasons.

#5 Hooliganism

England v Russia - Group B: UEFA Euro 2016
Russian thugs clashed with their English counterparts during Euro 2016

Hooliganism has been a blight on football for decades now, and despite tremendous efforts to stamp it out, it remains a problem – most heavily in Eastern Europe more than anywhere else. While it was English thugs who had the worst reputation in the 1970s, 80s and early 90s, that award now goes to hooligans from the countries who were formerly behind the Iron Curtain.

Look at Euro 2016, for instance – the tournament was held in France, but the fans that caused problems were largely from the eastern side of Europe. We saw issues between Ukrainian and German fans, Albanian and Romanian fans, and even an angry clash during the game between the Czech Republic and Croatia – an incident that saw the game paused as flares were thrown onto the pitch.

The worst behaviour, unfortunately, came from the Russian fans. Their ‘Ultras’ attacked English fans in Marseille prior to, during and after the game between the two countries, and after UEFA threatened to expel both sides from the tournament, English authorities condemned the clashes. The Russian side meanwhile expressed support for their thugs, who were reported to be trained MMA fighters rather than your run-of-the-mill hooligans.

With next year’s World Cup taking place in Russia, can we really expect the tournament to go by without problems involving hooligans? Remember Russia went out at the group stage in Euro 2016 – even if that happens in 2018, their fans will still be at home and ready to fight fans from other countries.

#4 Racism

Germany v Mexico: Semi-Final - FIFA Confederations Cup Russia 2017
FIFA have attempted to eradicate racism, but it's still a huge problem in Russia

In a similar vein to the issues surrounding hooliganism, racism is a long-rooted problem within football that FIFA and other organisations have been working hard for years to eradicate. Indeed, the ‘Kick it Out’ campaign has been largely successful and in places like England, racist chants from the fans are all but gone. Unfortunately, the same can’t be said for other parts of Europe, and unfortunately, Russia and other Eastern European countries remain a hotbed of racism.

It’s now seven years since a banana-themed banner was unfurled at a Lokomotiv Moscow game to celebrate the sale of striker Peter Odemwingie to West Bromwich Albion, but things don’t seem to have gotten any better for coloured players in Russia. Just a few weeks ago, Liverpool’s young striker Rhian Brewster suffered racial abuse at the hands of Spartak Moscow player Leonid Mironov during a UEFA Youth League game, and Brazilian forward Hulk, who played in Russia for Zenit, has also stated that racism is common there.

Part of the problem could easily be blamed on the officials themselves, though. Too little has been done to deal with racism from fans from Eastern Europe towards black players over the last decade, and we’ve seen incidents where the authorities have appeared to back the racists – such as when Danny Rose was sent off during an under-21 international game against Serbia for retaliating against racist abuse. Until FIFA properly crack down on such incidents – outright banning countries who harbour racism from taking part in tournaments – it will remain a problem.

And with five African teams and countless numbers of coloured players heading to the World Cup next year, it’s a problem that can be expected to rear its ugly head once again.

#3 Messi could be heading for an early exit

Argentina v Chile: Championship - Copa America Centenario
Lionel Messi's Argentina could be heading home early

The idea that the greatness of a World Cup could hinge on the destiny of one player sounds ridiculous, but there’s no denying that a tournament is better if it has its best players heading into the latter stages. 2014 saw Cristiano Ronaldo heading home after the group stages and only a fool would claim the tournament was better for it. 2018 should see better fortunes for Ronaldo, whose side have been drawn into a relatively easier group with Spain, Iran and Morocco, but the same cannot be said for his biggest rival.

Lionel Messi’s Argentina have been drawn into what appears to be the toughest group in the whole tournament, facing off against European dark horses Croatia, Nigeria – who appear to be ready to reach the same heights they once did in the 1990s – and Iceland, the masters of upset, as England can attest to this fact. And while Argentina have enough firepower on paper, at least, to get through the group stage, they made a mess of qualifying and had to rely on a Messi hat-trick to beat Ecuador to get them through in the end.

With Messi’s powers slowly beginning to wane, can Argentina really rely on him to drag them kicking and screaming through such a tough World Cup group? Despite having some big names, Jorge Sampaoli’s side never looked like clicking during qualifying, and the likes of Paulo Dybala, Angel di Maria and Sergio Aguero just haven’t gotten close to their club form.

Even with Messi in top gear they could struggle. And if they do face an early exit – it’d be their first since 2002 – the tournament would certainly suffer the loss of one of its marquee stars.

#2 The hosts could go out in the group stage

Russia v Wales - Group B: UEFA Euro 2016
Russia were easily beaten by Wales at Euro 2016

An argument could certainly be made that any World Cup is better if its hosts go deeper into the tournament. Recent history would seem to confirm that, as everyone remembers South Korea’s Cinderella run in 2002, France’s victory in 1998, and Germany and Brazil making the semi-finals in 2006 and 2014 respectively. Meanwhile, the least well-regarded recent World Cup – 2010 – saw the hosts, South Africa, eliminated in the group stage.

Unfortunately, it’s very likely that 2018 will see the hosts go out very early – if not in the group stage, likely in the second round at best. The hosts have been drawn in one of the softer groups, facing Uruguay, Egypt and Saudi Arabia, but to expect them to get through that easily would be a mistake. Uruguay aren’t as good as they were in 2010, but can still call upon one of the world’s best players in Luis Suarez. Saudi Arabia are historically weak, but Egypt looked good throughout qualifying and in Mohamed Salah, they have one of this season’s most outstanding players thus far.

Russia meanwhile haven’t played a competitive fixture since Euro 2016, where they were dire, snatching a point with a lucky goal against England and then totally capitulating in games against Wales and Slovakia. They were comfortably the worst side to watch in the whole tournament and it’s unlikely that any big improvements could have been made since then.

The chances of Russia going deep into the tournament are quite bleak, especially when you consider that Portugal or Spain would await them in the second round. Which means, no hosts after the first couple of weeks of the tournament.

#1 No heavyweight clashes early on

Spain v Netherlands: Group B - 2014 FIFA World Cup Brazil
There are a distinct lack of heavyweight clashes - like 2014's Spain vs. Holland game - in Russia 2018's group stages

Recent World Cups have seen some massive clashes between heavyweight nations in the early stages – remember 2014, with Germany vs. Portugal, England vs. Italy and Uruguay, and Spain vs. Holland and Chile? The 2018 edition though, looks to be a little different. Yes, we’re getting England vs. Belgium and Spain vs. Portugal but outside of that, well, there are not many mouth-watering clashes in the opening stage.

Why is this? The seeding for Russia 2018 was done a little differently, with all four pots of teams seeded by their most recent FIFA ranking. In the past, the top seeds were decided in this way but the rest of the teams were all organised by their continental confederation – meaning the top eight teams would avoid each other, but outside of that, anything was possible.

However, this should mean that the better sides make it into the knockout stages and we get heavyweight clashes later in the tournament. And it could also mean that smaller sides have more incentive to play well against the bigger teams in the hope that they could escape the group stages. But unfortunately, it’s more likely to lead to a bunch of squash matches in the group stage, meaning the first two weeks of the tournament will be largely written off.

The change in seeding was a gamble on the behalf of FIFA, and it may not pay off.

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Edited by Tanya Rudra