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Analysing Arsenal's remaining fixtures and their chances of finishing in the Top Four | Premier League 2019-20

  • Arsenal's one goal for this season is to finish in the top 4. Will they do it? Let's have a look.
ANALYST
Feature
Modified 05 Mar 2020, 04:19 IST

Will Arsenal finish in the top 4 this season?
Will Arsenal finish in the top 4 this season?

As things stand, the Gunners sit ninth in the Premier League; they are quite literally a mid-table team. The doomed reign of Unai Emery sent their campaign into a downward spiral, and Mikel Arteta was the unlucky soul tasked with repairing the damage.

Since arriving in December, the Spaniard has tried to steady the ship, focusing mainly on defensive solidity and coordinated patterns of attack. We’ve now seen enough of Arteta’s management to suggest that the Gunners could sneak their way into this season’s Top 4. Realistically, we must look at Arsenal’s remaining fixtures and determine whether this side could garner enough points to secure Champions League qualification.

Analysing Arsenal’s remaining fixtures and their chances of finishing in the Top 4.

We’re 27 games into the Premier League season, and Arsenal are eight points off the Champions League positions. The North London side have won eight games, drawn 13 and lost six (the same amount as Manchester City). However, it’s the astronomical amount of draws that have seen Arsenal drop so far behind the rest. Arteta is working on that, and wants to ensure the platform he’s building with the defence is capitalised on by the forwards.

Arsenal’s remaining fixtures:

·        West Ham United (h) 7/3

·        Manchester City (a) 11/3

·        Brighton & Hove Albion (a) 14/3

·        Norwich City (h) 4/4

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·        Wolves (a) 13/4

·        Leicester (h) 18/4

·        Tottenham (a) 26/4

·        Liverpool (h) 2/5

·        Aston Villa (a) 9/5

·        Watford (h) 17/5

·        Southampton (a) TBD

Arsenal could lose several players if they don
Arsenal could lose several players if they don't get UCL qualification

Looking at Arsenal’s remaining fixtures; six of them are away from home. It’s no secret that Arsenal’s away form has been atrocious over the past few years, but Arteta is changing that trend - the Gunners are unbeaten in all seven of their away games under the Spaniard.

There is no longer a fear to go away from home, with the new manager demanding commitment and effort regardless of what pitch they’re on. Realistically, out of the six away games, Arsenal can be confident of picking up points against Brighton, Southampton, and Aston Villa.

The other three are against teams in the top seven positions in Wolves, Tottenham and Manchester City. A draw at any of these grounds would be significant in the race to secure a Champions League berth; especially considering that all three of these teams currently sit above the Gunners in the table.

At home, the Gunners should expect to collect all three points against Norwich, Watford and Norwich City. However, if they’re deadly serious about UCL qualification, they must also beat Leicester at the Emirates and avoid defeat to Liverpool.

West Ham United v Arsenal FC - Premier League
West Ham United v Arsenal FC - Premier League

Overall this season, the Gunners have picked up 14 points (1.33 per game) away home, in comparison to 23 (1.44 per game) at home. Now that the Gunners are out of the Europa League, they have no choice but to fully focus on the Premier League.

There will be no more Thursday night distractions, with Arteta’s men not being able to use ‘fatigue’ as an excuse for the run-in. In comparison, their main rivals for Champions League football in Tottenham, Manchester United and Wolves are all still in European competitions, making their squads that much thinner.

Arsenal’s latest financial reports suggest the Gunners cannot afford another season in the Europa League, they need the UCL desperately. These next 11 games will define the North London club’s summer transfer activity. 

Published 05 Mar 2020, 04:19 IST
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