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We're now into the final month of the 2017/18 season in Europe's club football. Leagues in Germany and England draw to a close this weekend, while that in Spain, France, and Italy in the next.
Barring the Serie A, the rest of the top five leagues have produced a winner already. The relegation scenario is heating up too, while the fight for Europe across the leagues is edgier.
Some big boys stare at the ignominy of missing out on Europe's holy grail, while there are minnows that are on the cusp of a Champions League qualification against all the odds. But the margins, everywhere, admittedly remain thin. The race is set to go down right to the wire.
So let's analyze where things stand right now in the fight for Champions League places in Europe's top 5 leagues:
#5 Ligue 1
Already Qualified: PSG (champions)
In the reckoning: Lyon, Monaco, Marseille
PSG successfully wrestled back the supremacy of the league from AS Monaco, who have receded significantly this season. Currently, they lie third in the standings with 74 points, just one adrift of Lyon, who are aiming to return to Europe after a year-long absence.
Olympique Marseille, Europa League finalists this year, are further down on fourth with 73 points.
The thing is, only one of these can secure a direct qualification into the group stages of Champions League next season. Lyon need just 5 more points from the remaining 2 games to secure a runners-up finish, as they boast a vastly superior goal-difference to that of Monaco.
The Leonardo Jardim-led side have a tough fixture against 6th-placed St.Etienne at home this Sunday, and anything but a win would open the door for Marseille to sneak in.
Les Olympiens might win both their remaining games, and still not qualify, for they need either of these two sides to drop points as their prospects otherwise appear quite bleak.
However, one lifeline here is the Europa League final - win and participate in the Champions League next season. But, standing in their way are the mighty Atletico Madrid, who are heavy favorites to nick it.
Even if all three teams somehow do end up with the same points tally, then goal-difference comes into the picture, in which case, Lyon are likely to go through for vastly superior goal-difference compared to Monaco and Marseille.
#4 Bundesliga
Already Qualified: Bayern Munich (champions), Schalke 04
In the reckoning: Borussia Dortmund, Hoffenheim, Bayer Leverkusen
This one's pretty easier than the earlier case. With just one more game to go, everything would be decided at once as all the games are scheduled to kick-off at the same time on Sunday.
Dortmund are currently third in the standings with 55 points and, need just a point to ensure Champions League football next season.
However, they play Hoffenheim away, who are 3 points adrift of them on fourth and need to secure a win to remain on the safer side. Even a draw would see Die Kraichgauer advance, provided Bayer Leverkusen don't achieve a better result.
Both these teams are tied on 52 points, but the former sits ahead on goal difference. Leverkusen host a lowly Hannover on the final matchday, so a win is almost guaranteed, in which case, the onus would be on Hoffenheim to beat Dortmund at home and by a margin that would preserve their goal-difference superiority.
If Hoffenheim and Leverkusen end up losing their respective ties, both would remain locked on 52 points each. Then, the goal-difference in the final standings would settle the contest.
#3 Serie A
Already qualified: Juventus, Napoli
In the reckoning: AS Roma, Lazio, Inter Milan
This has to be the closest season in Serie A in recent memory. Unlike the other leagues, this one hasn't produced a winner yet and is set to go right down to the wire.
Juventus and Napoli have been in a league of their own, and irrespective of who clinches the title, both have already secured a passage into the group stages of Champions League.
That leaves Roma, Lazio, and Inter fighting for the remaining two spots. UEFA's decision to let four representatives from each of the top 4 leagues means Serie A would have 4 teams in the Champions League for the first time, but one of these would still miss out.
Roma, currently on third with 73 points, need to win both their games to maintain their position ahead of Lazio, should the latter pick up maximum points from the remaining 2 games.
If that happens to be the case, Inter automatically drop into Europa League, as the final matchday would see the sides go head-to-head in Rome.
The Nerazzurris are fifth with 69 points, two adrift of Lazio, and need the latter to drop points in the penultimate matchday. Else, beat them in the final one, whilst picking up three points against Sassuolo in the other game.
Roma have their own fair share of challenges too, as they host Juventus before mounting a trip to Sassuolo for the final game. However, just a point from these games would be enough to go through.
If the fourth and fifth-placed sides end up on same points, then head-to-head results would be considered: A tie between Inter and Roma would see the former going ahead, while the winner of Lazio vs Inter will earn Champions League football if both end up on same points after matchday 38.
Now, here comes the tricky part - what if all three teams end up with 73 points each? Roma would need to lose both their games to bring about the situation, while Lazio needs to draw theirs.
A win and a draw for Inter would bring them level with the Rome outfits. Then, in this case, Lazio, who lament an inferior head-to-head record against both sides, would drop into Europa League.
#2 La Liga
Qualified: Barcelona (champions), Atletico Madrid, Real Madrid, Valencia
Thankfully, La Liga spared me the pains of extrapolations and calculations as this is the only league where top four positions have already been decided.
The only thing left to fight for here is a higher position. Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid are on 72 and 75 points each, but the Merengues have a game in hand over their crosstown rivals.
Valencia are fourth with 67, and the only way by which they can finish third is by winning both their remaining games and Real going down in all the 3 games left.
Los Blancos have finished outside of top three just once in the last 14 years - in 2013/14. To avoid a repeat of it this season, they'll have to win all the remaining games and hope the Rojiblancos drop some points. A second-place finish for Diego Simeone's men would mean the best finish to a La Liga season since being crowned as champions in 2014.
#1 Premier League
Already qualified: Manchester City (champions), Manchester United
In the reckoning: Liverpool, Tottenham Hotspur, Chelsea
Chelsea were all but out of the race for Champions League football, but the 1-0 win over Liverpool on Sunday changed the whole complexion. These three teams now find themselves within three points of each other, and the scales can swing anyone's way.
With just one domestic game left, all Liverpool have to do is beat Brighton at home. But if they don't finish within the top four at the end of the campaign, the other way round is to beat Real Madrid in the finals of the Champions League. But that's far easier said than done.
Spurs just need to better the 75 point tally to overtake Liverpool on third. And if Liverpool and Chelsea end up tying at 75, which is the maximum that they can now accrue, then goal-difference would be the tie-breaker if the former lose in the Champions League finals.
In that case, the Reds would be a better bet as they currently hold a goal-difference of +15 over the Blues.
Should Liverpool indeed get the better of Los Blancos in Kiev, all three teams go through regardless of how things stand after the final game.
