It’s the month of May and the Premier League has entered its final stretch after nine months of gruelling action. And we are still no closer to predicting who could win the league title this season. As many as five clubs have topped the table at some point or the other this season and the title race is now down to a two-horse race.
Manchester City led the table at the start of the season as Pep Guardiola’s side looked to be running away with the title after six consecutive wins before they started to crumble. Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester United and Arsenal have also spent at least two match days at the top of the table until Chelsea’s 13-match winning run saw them top the table – and it’s a position they have not relinquished yet.
Antonio Conte’s side now sit four points above Tottenham Hotspur – who have not topped the table yet this season. With four games to go, only the Spurs can mathematically finish above their London rivals with Liverpool and Manchester City too far behind.
Premier League’s playoff scenario for the Champions League
Chelsea have been assured of qualifying for the Champions League with their tally of 81 points. Spurs could also qualify and theoretically could only miss out if they lose all their games and Manchester United win all their games by huge margins to overhaul the goal difference – highly improbable.
But what about the rest of the teams? In a highly competitive season where as many as seven clubs were vying for four spots at one point, it has become very chaotic at the top of the table.
| # | TEAM | PLD | GF | GA | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chelsea | 34 | 72 | 29 | 43 | 81 |
| 2 | Tottenham | 34 | 71 | 22 | 49 | 77 |
| 3 | Liverpool | 35 | 71 | 42 | 29 | 69 |
| 4 | Man City | 34 | 65 | 37 | 28 | 66 |
| 5 | Man Utd | 34 | 51 | 25 | 26 | 65 |
| 6 | Arsenal | 33 | 64 | 42 | 22 | 60 |
| 7 | Everton | 35 | 60 | 40 | 20 | 58 |
A scenario exists where a playoff could decide which team qualifies for the Champions League proper and which team will have to play two extra games to get there. As things stand, Liverpool and Manchester City will qualify for the continental competition but only one of them will automatically qualify for the group stage while the other goes through a qualifying round.
Liverpool currently occupy third spot with a three-point lead over Manchester City. However, Jurgen Klopp’s side have played one game more than City. If City win that game in hand, both teams will be on 69 points. And depending on the result, either team could be ahead based on goal difference.
Criteria for deciding final positions on the table
The final positions on the Premier League table are decided on the following factors (in the same order). Of course, this is only required if both teams are either vying for the league title or to decide the final positions to qualify for European football.
1) Points
2) Goal Difference
3) Goals Scored
We all saw how Goal Difference made a huge difference on the final day of the 2011/12 season when Manchester City clinched the title in injury time thanks to Sergio Aguero’s goal to make it 3-2 against Queens Park Rangers. Both City and United finished on 89 points but City’s superior Goal Difference (65 to 56) saw them win the title.
Similarly, Goals Scored may come into the picture this season with Manchester City and Liverpool having almost the same Goal Difference (29 and 28 respectively). If the Goal Difference is the same, Goals Scored will classify the two clubs. Liverpool have scored 71 goals in 35 games while Guardiola’s side have scored 65 goals in 34 games.
Depending on the results in the final few games of the season, Liverpool and Manchester City could finish on the same Points, Goal Difference and Goals Scored!
The Reds have scored more goals but have also conceded more goals. As things stand, City’s priority will be on improving the Goal Difference first. But their recent 2-2 draw against Middlesbrough does not inspire confidence – Boro have scored the least number of goals in the league this season (26 goals in 35 games).
Arsenal, who have two games in hand on Liverpool, could also spoil the party – if results go their way. Manchester United could qualify for the Champions League if they win the Europa League but, if it boils down to Goals Scored when Goal Difference is the same, the Red Devils have the least number of goals scored among the top seven teams.
Remember, head-to-head results do not matter in the Premier League. Therefore, we could see a playoff to decide which team finishes third and which team finishes fourth – a playoff fixture to see who qualifies for the Champions League group stages. The loser will have to go through the third qualifying round in August once the 2017/18 season gets underway.
Note: England are guaranteed four spots in the group stages only from the 2018/19 season (as are Germany’s Bundesliga, Spain’s La Liga and Italy’s Serie A).
