Euro 2012 Finals - Preview: Spain vs. Italy

Spain will be on the cusp of history when they take on Italy in the final of Euro 2012, with just a win separating them from the glory of becoming the only team in history to win three consecutive Continental and World championships and also the only team to successfully defend the Henri Delaunay trophy. The Azzuri have proved that they are the most formidable opponents that La Furia Roja will have to conquer in order to fulfill their destiny. If the tantalizing 1-1 draw in the group stages between the two rivals is an indicator of what we are to expect in the final, make sure you get yourself in front of a really big screen on Sunday as it is going to be an electrifying clash.

Form Guide:

Spain

Vicente Del Bosque’s men have faced a lot of criticism of late for their style of play, which seems to have slowed down substantially. Though their possession on the ball and pass completion rate is at its peak, and without doubt beyond that of any other team, they seem to get stuck up in midfield and are not able to create enough quality chances inside the box. Their lack of finishing is apparent and they desperately need a seasoned striker to step up to the challenge. Del Bosque’s decision to play Negredo in place of Torres in the semi-finals would have hurt the latters already dwindling confidence. Considering that Torres could be the key against Italy, Del Bosque’s decision to not play him at all in the semis could be a mistake that costs them dearly. Their defense was again the highlight in the game against Portugal as they managed to cope well with Ronaldo and did not concede in the match. They have a fantastic record of letting in only one goal so far this tournament, ironically against Italy. In fact, some sharp goalkeeping by Casillas and a solid back four have contributed more to the success, rather than their fabled attacking prowess in this years’ European Championships.

Xabi Alonso has been excellent for Spain through out the course of this tournament and will be an important factor for them along side Xavi and Inesta in midfield. The contribution of Sergio Busquetes has been unheralded so far as he tends to get overshadowed by the likes of Iniesta, Xavi and Fabregas, but La Roja would have been struggling if it wasn’t for the brilliant defensive play of Busquets, who worked so hard to win back the ball whenever Spain were dispossessed. The Spanish attacking trio will have to produce something special to crack the Italian defense and beat Buffon. Spain have a very direct style of play and tend to work from the middle of the pitch rather than making runs down the flanks. The Italians, with De Rossi supporting the defense will be looking to hold the middle and force Spain to play wide, this will put them at an immediate disadvantage as they are not the tallest of people and therefore not very good in the air. This is where the inclusion of a regular ‘no.9’, particularly Torres, could make the difference for Spain.

Last Five Matches

Date	Venue	Opponent	Result
27/6/12	Donetsk	Portugal	D 0-0 (W 4-2 pen)
23/6/12	Donetsk	France	W 2-0
18/6/12	Gdansk	Croatia	W 1-0
14/6/12	Gdansk	Rep. of Ireland	W 4-0
10/6/12	Gdansk	Italy	D 1-1

Italy

Spain started the tournament as favorites and were expected to reach the final, but no one would have predicted Italy would reach so far in the tournament. The Azzuri have put in an inspired performance and they’ve silenced every single one of their critics. Prior to the tournament, it looked as though things couldn’t get any worse for the Italians especially after losing their last three friendlies; and just as the night is darkest before the dawn, the Azzuri have come out blazing ever since. They have not just been excellent in defense, as you would expect of any self-respecting Italian side, they have also been brilliant going forward under the catalytic influence of a revitalized Andrea Pirlo. At the age of thirty-four, Pirlo has outshone many younger stars and has arguably been the player of the tournament. The matches against England and Germany demonstrated how they can smother opponents in midfield and score goals at crucial times, and after Balotelli’s spectacular performance in their last game they will be favored to win.

The Azzuri are going to have a much tougher time triying to smother Spain in midfield than they did to England and Germany, since they will be overwhelmed by Spain in terms of possession. The return of Abate to the back four will be a boost as they will have to be air-tight in defense. Buffon has been phenomenal in goal and only his opponent counterpart, Casillas, has performed at the same level as the Italian veteran in this competition; needless to say, both custodians will be kept busy during the match. The Italians will have to rely heavily on set plays and counter attacks to make inroads into the Spanish defense and their performance in the semis, where they scored from a corner and from a lightning quick counter-attacking maneuver, will give them a lot of confidence. Pirlo will again be the mastermind in midfield and Balotelli: the deadly hitman to execute his plans.

Last Five Matches

Date	Venue	Opponent	Result
28/6/12	Warsaw	Germany	W 2-1
24/6/12	Kyiv	England	D 0-0 (W 4-2 pen)
18/6/12	Poznan	Rep. of Ireland	W 2-0
14/6/12	Poznan	Croatia	D 1-1
10/6/12	Gdansk	Spain	D 1-1

Head to Head:

La Roja have not won a competitive match against Italy in almost a century; the last time Spain won won against the Azzuri was in 1920 where they won 2-0 in the Summer Olympics held in Antwerp, Belgium. Though they did knock Italy out on penalties during EURO’08, the match is officially classified as a draw, as it ended 0-0 after extra time.

Year	Competition	Venue	Result
2012	EURO	Gdansk	Spain 1-1 Italy
2008	EURO	Vienna	Spain 0-0 Italy (4-2 pen)
1994	World Cup	Boston	Spain 1-2 Italy
1988	EURO	Frankfurt	Spain 0-1 Italy
1980	EURO	Milan	Spain 0-0 Italy
1934	World Cup	Florence	Spain 0-1 Italy
1934	World Cup	Florence	Spain 1-1 Italy

Tournament Statistics:

Spain		Italy
8	Goals Scored	6
1	Goals Conceded	3
78	Total Attempts	97
49	Attempts on Target	55
40	Corners	27
18	Offsides	13
10	Yellow Cards	15
0	Red Cards	0

Possible Lineups and Formations:

Spain (4-3-3)

Casillas

Arbeloa, Pique, Ramos, Alba

Xavi, Busquets, Alonso

Silva, Torres, Iniesta

Spain have a fully fit squad available for the final and will be playing in their regular formation. The only likely change to the starting lineup is the inclusion of Torres if Del Bosque recognizes the need for a regular striker.

Italy (4-3-1-2)

Buffon

Abate, Brazagli, Maggio, Blazaretti

Marchisio, Pirlo, De Rossi

Montolivo

Balotelli, Cassano

Abate’s recovery from a thigh injury and Maggio’s return from suspension would mean both defenders take up their regular place in the lineup ahead of Chiellini and Bonucci. Montolivo, who impresses against Germany will play instead of Motta behind the strikers. Prandelli is likely to play in the 4-3-1-2 formation, which has proved quite successful for the side.

Match Prediction:

Spain 1-1 Italy (Italy win on penalties)

Looks like this match is going to be a replay of the group stage match, which was a draw though by no stretch of imagination was it boring. The two sides are equally matched and separating them over 90 minutes would be tough. If it comes to penalties, the Azzuri might just have an upper hand.