Euro 2016: 5 crucial matches that could decide the group standings

gareth bale
Will Gareth Bale spoil England’s party?

euro 2016

With the Euro 2016 curtain on the brink of rising, fans of the continent's finest football nations are suspended in a state of supreme anticipation. More teams and more chances play like sweet music to the ears of underdog enthusiasts and it's sure to be one of the most open European Championships in a long time.

Put the champagne on ice though, for there's still the small matter of the group stages before any team can get carried away with themselves. Progression to the knockout phase is more accessible than ever, with 24 sides competing and the fact that, along with all the group winners and runners-up, the four best third-placed teams also advance to the first ever Euro last 16 stage.

The groups are tight though and the chances of qualifying for the knockout phases hinge on specific fixtures, here's a select five that could decide the final standings, which you should keep an eye out for...


England vs Wales

Sandwiched between England's opener with a stagnating Russia and their final group game against debutants Slovakia, this battle of the British will have added spice for a host of reasons.

It is likely that these two will be favourites to progress; Russia are without key man Alan Dzagoev and the heart of their defence has a combined age elapsing seventy, while debutants Slovakia lack any real firepower from back to front.

Therefore it is expected that both England and Wales will have won their opening encounters, or at the very least picked up a point, and so the victors of this clash would undoubtedly secure qualification, meanwhile casting a cloud of doubt over the advancement of their geographical neighbours.

On the contrary, this match could also prove important if England suffer a shock opening match defeat to Russia, as a follow-up loss to Wales would send the Three Lions packing in one of the worse scenarios possible.

Ukraine vs Poland

ukraine vs poland
This match might be a straightforward battle for second spot and automatic progression to the last 16

This iconic pair-up sees the hosts and co-hosts of Euro 2012 square up on match-day three in Group B. Both sides would've already locked horns with Germany and potential whipping boys Northern Ireland.

The belief is that, having most likely both experienced defeats to group favourites Germany and victories against Michael O'Neill's side, this will be a straightforward battle for second spot and automatic progression to the last 16, so it carries a great deal of significance in both a historical and modern context.

If events pan out as expected on paper (let's be honest, it's international football so this is unlikely) then victory here would hand the winning side a total of six points, while their rivals across the border will be left with a meagre three.

Alternatively, if the poor form of Joachim Löw's side continues in France, and the Germans stumble, this match could even decide the winner. Poland and Ukraine could very well take points off Die Mannschaft and have the chance to top the group with victory in Marseille, while Germany would aim to lock in third with a win against Northern Ireland. Phew.

Turkey vs Croatia

turkey vs croatia
Croatia's Euro 2008 campaign was ended by the Turks in the quarter-final stage

While many dub Group F as this year's "Group of Death", my thinking is that such a title lays with the fearsome foursome of Spain, Turkey, Croatia and Czech Republic in Group D.

The middle two face-off in Paris in the group's opening tie, where tensions will be high after Croatia's Euro 2008 campaign was ended by the Turks in the quarter-final stage on penalties. Ante Cacic's men will seek revenge and defeat for either side on match-day one would leave them in a sticky situation.

If Turkey, for example, lost this encounter, they'd have to get points against both the Czech Republic and holders Spain to stand any chance of advancing.

The Spaniards are undoubtedly the strongest unit in the group, combining a solid back-line with a clockwork midfield. The Czechs' focal point of creativity is aged in Tomas Rosicky, while their back line is frail so they are likely to finish rock bottom.

Second and a solid third place is therefore up for grabs and who gets the former and latter could be decided in the French capital when Croatia look to spoil any Turkish delight.

Defeat for the Turks followed by a whipping by Spain in game number two would leave them susceptible to 'nil point'. The combination of such results would boost Czech Republic's confidence in the final game who could progress to the third spot with a win, leaving Turkey without any points on the board. Of course, it's all hypothetical.

Italy vs Sweden

zlatan ibrahimovic
Zlatan might very well end Italy’s tournament in the group stage itself

Antonio Conte's last major tournament as manager of Italy could well be over before it's even started. The Azzurri's campaign kick-starts in Lyon against Belgium, who are among the favourites to progress and will be eager to rectify the disappointment of the years prior to the 2014 World Cup.

That spells out danger for the Italians who could face up against the formidable Zlatan Ibrahimovic on match-day two knowing defeat would almost certainly boot them out of the competition.

This game's outcome could even dent Belgium's chances of topping the group. Sweden lock horns with the Republic of Ireland in their opening group game, the oldest squad in the competition, who seldom navigate their way much further than the group stages.

So victory could be on the cards there, meaning three points for the Swedes against Italy would fill them with confidence ahead of the final game against the Belgians, where they could hold the mental edge and pip The Red Devils to the top spot.

Iceland vs Austria

gylfi sigurdsson
Iceland’s hopes will lie on the shoulder of Gylfi Sigurdsson

Group F incorporates Portugal, Austria, Iceland and Hungary; not the toughest quartet by any means. With this lack of unprecedented quality though comes a group blown wide open. Even the favourites to top the group, Cristiano Ronaldo's Portugal, have been inconsistent of late and will have to have their wits about them to hold of a trio of hungry underdogs.

Iceland will be making their first ever appearance in a major tournament and will come up against Austria in the final round of group matches. Hungary are the weakest of the bunch, placing the most part of their hope in declining veteran Zoltan Gera, so Iceland's deadly duo of Gylfi Sigurdsson and Kolbein Sigthorsson should make light work of the lowest ranked team in the competition, after a narrow defeat to Portugal in their opener.

This would leave Iceland on three points ahead of the final game, which Austria would most likely reflect, making for an evenly-poised 'second place playoff'.

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