Five potential Golden Boot winners at this summer’s World Cup

Thomas Muller with the Golden Boot last World Cup

According to the bookies, this summer’s race for the World Cup Golden Boot looks set to be an exclusive contest between the usual big names. However, long and tiring club seasons and high expectations could see these obvious contenders struggle in Brazil. Below are five alternative top scorers for the World Cup.

Given their respective records in front of goal in recent seasons, a tournament featuring Diego Costa, Luis Suarez and Radamel Falcao wouldn’t usually leave much room for dark horses or outsiders to squeeze ahead of them in striking stakes, but injuries have placed questions marks over all three.

Dissatisfaction at club level, and the middling form that comes with it, could hold back Edinson Cavani while the historical underachievement of the Ivory Coast at past World Cups could put paid to Didier Drogba and Wilifried Bony’s hopes of finishing top scorers.

Tight competition could strangle the individual qualities of Cristiano Ronaldo, Alexis Sanchez and Robin van Persie, with the Ballon d’Or winner bereft of the team mates capable of matching his ability, and the latter two stars likely to suffer due to half-fit or absent key players, particularly in midfield behind them.

Instead, attention should turn to the less heralded goal scorers and nations for inspiration regarding who could snatch an unlikely pole position in the scoring charts at this year’s World Cup.

1. Thomas Muller: Germany (16 goals in 47 games)

On first glance, Germany’s squad appears to be somewhat understaffed in the striker department compared to many of their rival nations.

Jogi Low has only called up one out-and-out striker, Miroslav Klose, to his squad, with the rest of his forward line set to be made up of more versatile players able to play in a number of advanced positions such as Marco Reus, Andre Schurrle and Lukas Podolski. Yet in Thomas Muller, Germany have one of the most unorthodox yet highly effective goalscorers around at present.

The Bayern Munich attacking midfielder remains an enigma for many largely due to his uncanny ability to find space and punish opponents without possessing the kind of pace, strength or technique finishers usually rely upon to find a cutting edge in front of goal.

At the 2010 World Cup in South Africa, Muller pipped David Villa, Wesley Sneijder and Diego Forlan to the Golden Boot after all four players scored five goals each. The German’s higher number of assists tipped him him ahead of his peers however, handing him the award.

Having been Bayern’s most prolific chance creator in the Bundesliga this season, his ability to provide for others could give him an advantage once again should individual scorers fail to breakaway from the pack in Brazil.

2. Gonzalo Higuain: Argentina (21 goals in 36 games)

Lionel Messi and Sergio Aguero may be the more glamorous options to plump for in the Argentinian front line, but as is often the case in tournament football, it’s the players that can make the most of half-chances and rough situations that come out on top.

Of course, Gonzalo Higuain is no slouch in the technical stakes either, but as an attacking spearhead in front of Messi and Aguero’s dribbling flair, he is the powerhouse battering ram, allying his physical prowess to the skills of his diminutive team mates.

With 21 goals in 36 games too, he has an excellent record at international level, and just missed out on joining the leading scorers at South Africa 2010, where he picked up four goals for Diego Maradona’s rather disorganised Argentina.

As the fearsome tip of Alejandro Sabella’s far more coherent system this summer, he could be even more effective in the South American heat, where his athleticism may help him to get the better of weary defenders as Messi & Co. feed him the opportunities to score from between the lines.

3. Romelu Lukaku: Belgium (8 goals in 28 games)

Christian Benteke’s injury problems last season may have sent Aston Villa’s plans into disarray, but they were a boon to his Belgian compatriot Romelu Lukaku.

The Chelsea striker, who has spent the majority of his time in the Premier League on loan with West Bromwich Albion and Everton, is now all but confirmed as Belgium’s first choice goal scorer, and grabbed a hat trick in the recent 5-1 friendly thrashing of Luxembourg.

Having finally overtaken his Premier League-based countryman as the key figure up front, it seems unlikely that his ratio of eight goals in 28 games international games will stay so low for much longer.

While the likes of Wayne Rooney, Daniel Sturridge, Olivier Giroud and Karim Benzema may be the names on the lips of many when it comes to selecting a potential Golden Boot winner beyond the likes of Diego Costa & Co, England and France’s chances going into Brazil don’t look all that convincing.

By contrast, Belgium will head into the tournament as confirmed dark horses, bristling with some of the most exciting attackers talents in European football, and plenty of momentum following impressive seasons for their key individuals such as Eden Hazard, Vincent Kompany, Thibaut Courtais and Lukaku.

The striker is fast, strong, good in the air, decisive in front of goal and clever with his approach play and positioning. If Belgium can live up to the hype, he could be this summer’s surprise package in the race for the Golden Boot.

4. Mario Mandzukic: Croatia (13 goals in 48 games)

Croatia head to Brazil with a potent squad on paper but without the usual, well-drilled fluency of their greats teams of the recent past.

Having stumbled through qualification, they had to rely on the play-offs to ensure themselves of a place at the World Cup rather than booking their tickets automatically in the preliminary, European group stage.

However, Niko Kovac’s squad is still full of talent, particularly in midfield where their roster looks set to be one of the most creative at the tournament. If they can combine the talents of Luka Modric, Ivan Rakitic, Mateo Kovacic and Ivan Perisic into a swirling vortex of playmakers rather than an overcooked broth spoiled by an over-supply of cooks, they could be a major threat to unlock any defence this summer.

Ahead of this swarming pack of creators will be Mario Mandzukic, the tireless Bayern Munich striker who will be ready and willing to chase down lost causes and finished off the chances conjured up by his team-mates with equal relish.

Having spent the past season playing for a club intent on replacing him with Robert Lewandowski next campaign, Mandzukic may feel he has something to prove and a lot to show off in Brazil, with a plethora of top club suitors said to be monitoring his situation with the Bundesliga champions closely.

Yet his experience leading the line for Bayern could well stand him in good stead to make a major impact at the World Cup, with the Croatian having played ahead of a similarly convoluted array of attacking midfielders under Pep Guardiola over the past year. His ferocious work rate, snappy Bundesliga shot accuracy rate of 67% and talent supply line of co-stars could make him a surprise candidate to grab the goals this summer, but much will depend on whether Croatia can hit form and progress into the later stages.

5. Edin Dzeko: Bosnia and Herzegovina (33 goals in 60 games)

Manchester City’s towering front man ended European qualifying as second-top scorer with 10 goals for Bosnia, and with national coach Safet Susic having only named two strikers in his squad, the Sarajevan talisman will have ample opportunity to keep the strikes coming at the tournament proper.

Like Mandzukic, Dzeko will be able to call upon a talented range of team mates to help keep him supplied, with the likes of Miralem Pjanic adding quality to the team’s midfield spine, but as a forward he is a different proposition to the Croatian.

Standing at 1.93 metres, the striker is a formidable presence in the air but also a deft touch with both feet, making him an awkward and powerful opponent to deal with in and around the penalty area.

He’ll also be playing with plenty of purpose to sharpen his mind and his finishing, with Brazil 2014 marking Bosnia’s first ever appearance at a major tournament.

When neighbouring Croatia made their historic World Cup debut in 1998, Davor Suker claimed the Golden Boot with six goals from seven games. Who’s to say that Dzeko can’t provide the goals for his country to make a similar statement 16 years on?