To say this is a key game in this Nations League group would be an understatement. If England fail to win, they will be relegated to League B, while if Italy fall to defeat, they will be in danger of relegation too.
Neither team has been in their best form this year. Italy did beat Hungary in June but fell to an embarrassing 5-2 defeat against Germany in their final game of the summer.
England, meanwhile, failed to win any of their four Nations League games this summer, drawing with Italy and Germany and falling to defeat against Hungary twice – including a terrible 4-0 loss at the Molineux. The Three Lions will conclude their Nations League campaign at home against Germany on Tuesday,
With these two games being the final ones for England before the FIFA World Cup, the Three Lions will look to go into the quadrennial competition on a winning note.
Italy vs England Head-to-Head and Key Numbers
- England’s 4-0 defeat to Hungary was the worst of Gareth Southgate’s reign as manager. His team are now on a four game winless run, also their worst sequence under Southgate.
- Italy’s last four games with England have ended in draws, including the final of last summer’s Euro 2020, which the Azzurri won on penalties.
- Italy have never lost a competitive game at home to England, with their last meeting coming in a 1998 FIFA World Cup qualifier that ended goalless. England have beaten the Azzurri on their own turf, but only in friendlies.
- Since their triumph at Euro 2020, Italy have won just three of their next 11 games, whereas England have won five of their next ten.
- Only two players have scored goals for England in competitive games against Italy since 1990 - Daniel Sturridge and Luke Shaw.
Italy vs England Prediction
Neither team has been in great form leading into this game, but given that Italy have home advantage, it’s probably safe to call them the favourites.
England have the ability to beat any team on their day, but Italy have proven to be a bogey side of sorts for the Three Lions in recent years. While Southgate's men will hope for an upturn in fortunes before the World Cup, it’s difficult to imagine their resurgence starting here.
The prediction is a tight home win for Italy.
Prediction: Italy 1-0 England
Italy vs England Betting Tips
Tip 1: Result: Italy win
Tip 2: Game to have less than 2.5 goals – YES (Games between Italy and England are notoriously low-scoring, and they drew goalless in June.)
Tip 3: England to fail to score – YES (Italy have kept a clean sheet against England in three of their last five competitive meetings.)