Italy vs Estonia Prediction and Betting Tips | September 5th 2025

Italy and Estonia return to action in the 2026 FIFA World Cup qualifiers when they lock horns at the Gewiss Stadium on Friday. Jurgen Henn’s men will head into the weekend looking to cause an upset, having lost each of the last seven meetings between the two nations.

Having kicked off their qualifying campaign with a humbling 3-0 loss against Norway on June 6, Italy bounced back three days later when they secured a 2-0 victory over Moldova on home turf.

This was a much-needed victory for the Azzurri, who had failed to win their previous four matches across all competitions, a run which saw them crash out of the Nations League in the quarter-finals courtesy of a 5-4 aggregate defeat against Germany.

With three points from their two matches, Italy currently sit third in Group I, level on points with Estonia in fourth place, and nine points behind first-placed Norway, who have won all four of their matches so far.

Estonia, on the other hand, were left empty-handed yet again in the qualifiers as they fell to a 1-0 defeat against Norway at the A. Le Coq Arena last time out.

Henn’s men have now lost all but one of their four matches in Group I, with a narrow 3-2 victory over Moldova at the Zimbru Stadium on March 25 being the exception.

Breaching opposition defences has not been a cause for concern for Estonia, who have made the net ripple five times, but they have struggled at the back, where they are yet to keep a clean sheet, having shipped eight goals so far.

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Italy vs Estonia Head-To-Head and Key Numbers

• Italy boasts a perfect record against Estonia, having won each of the previous seven meetings between the two nations since April 1993.
• Their last competitive meeting came in June 2011, when the Azzuri cruised to a 3-0 victory in Group C of the European Championship qualifiers.
• Italy have failed to win four of their last five matches across all competitions, losing three and claiming one draw, having gone unbeaten in the five games preceding this run (4W, 1D).
• Estonia have won just one of their last seven games across all competitions while losing five and picking up one draw since October 2024.

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Italy vs Estonia Prediction

While Italy have two games in hand, they currently sit nine points off group leaders Norway and must avoid any further slip-ups in their pursuit of the automatic qualification spot. The Azzurri holds a 100% record against Estonia, and given the gulf in quality and experience between the two nations, we predict they will secure all three points as Gattuso marks his first game at the helm of affairs.

Prediction: Italy 3-0 Estonia

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Italy vs Estonia Betting Tips

Tip 1: Italy to win

Tip 2: Over 4.5 cards - No (There have been fewer than five bookings in eight of Italy’s last 10 matches)

Tip 3: Over 2.5 goals - Yes (There have also been three or more goals scored in eight of the Azzurri's last 10 games)