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The final international break of the year is upon us for the continuation of the World Cup 2022 qualifiers. Only two games (one for a few teams) remain. Italy take on Switzerland in the return leg later this evening. By this time next week, we will know the 10 teams that have directly qualified for the Qatar 2022 World Cup.
Qatar (host nation), Germany, Brazil and Denmark have already secured their place in the 2022 World Cup finals. Six more teams will join them by the end of this international break.
The winners of the 10 groups automatically qualify for the World Cup. The 10 group runners up teams will be joined by the two best group winners of the recently concluded UEFA Nations League.
These 12 teams will then be drawn into three play-off paths for a one-off semi-final and a final. The three path winners qualify for the upcoming World Cup.
However, a certain 'ballot system' might also come into play to determine a qualification spot. Yes, you read that right.
How will the ballot system come into play?
Italy and Switzerland are tied for the top spot in Group C with 14 points. Each team has played six games, won four and drawn the remaining two with just one goal conceded. Italy leads with 12 goals scored in comparison to Switzerland's 10. That leaves Italy top on a goal difference of 11 and Switzerland on nine with two games yet to be played.
The nations will lock horns with each other tomorrow at 19:45 CET. The reverse fixture saw the game end 0-0, with neither team able to break the opponent's defense.
Now, for the sake of 'ifs and buts', consider the below hypothesis for the ongoing World Cup 2022 qualifiers:
If the next game between these two teams ends as a 0-0 draw, then both teams go into the final game with the exact figures as mentioned above. Italy then play their last match against Northern Ireland while the Swiss play against Bulgaria.
Switzerland will then need to beat Bulgaria by a margin of 2+ goals compared to Italy and concede the same amount of goals. Remember, Italy have to win their last game.
In such a case, both the teams would have the same number of points, goals scored, goals conceded, wins, draws, lost, head-to-head, etc. All parameters will be identical. Well, what happens next?
It then comes down to fair play. What's fair play? It is a system meant to reward teams that do not collect any bookings and penalize which do. Each team starts with 0 points.
1 point deduction for each player's first yellow card
3 point deduction for the second yellow card that results in a red card/ direct red card
4 point deduction for a straight red card for a player already on a booking.
The real humdinger in this situation is that both teams have currently accumulated eight yellow cards!
Italy: 8 yellow cards, 0 red cards
Switzerland: 8 yellow cards, 0 red cards.
Thus, the only way then to confirm which team will qualify would be via the ballot!
What does the ballot system mean for Italy and Switzerland?
This will not be the first time a team qualifies via the ballot system in a World Cup Qualifier. In 1954, Spain vs Turkey was held in Rome, where the match went into extra time, yet nothing could separate the two teams.
The Olympic Stadium hosted a tiebreaker in the qualifying round for the World Cup that same year.
During that time, goal difference wasn't taken into account, hence a tie breaker was necessary. A ballot was prepared where an Italian boy picked out Turkey's name. Just like that, Spain were out of reckoning for the World Cup.
If the ballot system does in fact come into play, then either Italy or Switzerland would earn a direct place in the 2022 World Cup. The other team would then have to go through a qualification which will be held next year.
Of course, the circumstances have changed. We can't compare the 1950s to now. But the ballot has been used before, and it could well be used again this year!
