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Welcome back to the world of tipping after a small break for me. I’ve never been a fan of betting on international football outside of the actual major tournaments and have not done well at it to compound my misery. I have therefore imposed a ban on myself and took a weeks sabbatical to have a break from betting and recharge for this week, hopefully we’ll all see the benefits!
As I keep reminding anyone that will listen, I’ve been in nothing less than great form of late. I’ve been over 20% profit for all of the last four weeks and this has given me some increased spends as well as as a bit of leeway from my projected target of 10% for the whole season. This is a challenging target as most bookmakers will aim for a 6-7% profit and they have teams of people to give them the best shot, but one that I think is definitely possible. The most important thing, and a solid life lesson too, is to make sure you always learn from your mistakes/losses. I backed Arsenal on the first weekend at around 2.0 away at Newcastle. That would have been a great price in recent years and has since been made to look an accurate reflection. Therefore, I am now a lot less likely to back the Gunners, unless the price is way off. The other lesson is to pick your bets carefully. Don’t feel like you need to stick to the English leagues, they often represent the worst chances of success. If you take the time to research other European leagues in decent depth you are probably a step ahead of many bookmakers. Anyway, sermon over for now.
Music this week comes from another recent discovery, The Copyrights with Button Smasher.
Liverpool v Man Utd, Saturday 1245
Probably the biggest match of the whole weekend is also the first up in the Premier League. Man Utd travel to Anfield to try to beat Kenny Dalglish for the first time in the league in five attempts under his management. Obviously this stat is largely irrelevant as four of those were with completely different sides, but I thought I’d throw it in there.
Liverpool have started the season ok, with Luis Suarez looking a class act with Charlie Adam and Stewart Downing also looking solid acquisitions. However, Andy Carroll looks horrendously off the pace and Jordan Henderson seems to be living up to suggestions that he was worth £5million at best. The problem also comes in the fact Carroll scored in last week’s Merseyside derby and will therefore expect to keep his place, possibly to the detriment of successful tactics. He and Suarez still seem to have no understanding at all and the way to dominate Man Utd is still in midfield for me. They are still weak in the centre of the park and a five man midfield supporting Suarez would be my choice.
United have looked good in attack with Nani, Young and Rooney linking superbly at times and scoring plenty of goals. As mentioned though, the midfield is still weak and the defence has looked at sixes and sevens all too often already. Liverpool’s price is tightening all the time, but they still must be backed for me. Back Liverpool Draw No Bet at 2.22 on Betfair before the price goes.
Norwich v Swansea, Saturday 1500
Two of the newly promoted sides clash on Saturday and both have already impressed in patches this season. Norwich have looked a physically more impressive side with the likes of Richie De Laet and the behemoth Grant Holt in the side giving them a certain presence. They also have plenty of guile from Wes Hoolahan when he gets match time to provide an extra dimension to their play. They have been in a very good run recently that was brought to an end by a not at all shameful 2-0 loss at Old Trafford. They more than held their own for large periods though and could have scored on a couple of occasions, and that is where the problems lie for both sides.
Swansea have played some lovely stuff leading to goal, but Danny Graham (similarly Grant Holt), will never be Premier League quality strikers. It is often said the higher up the leagues you go the less chances you get to score, and these boys look like the chances are no longer enough for them. All being said I would expect Norwich to get back to winning ways in front of an always passionate home crowd. Back Norwich at 2.25 with Betfred.
Getafe v Villarreal, Saturday 1700
In recent years Villarreal have risen from mediocrity to regular Champions League participants due to a healthy cash injection and good management. They have a reputation for delivering results in style and with plenty of goals to boot, with doses of South American flair thrown in. Sadly, towards the end of last season this started to look less and less likely to continue. They have not had a playmaker now since Pellegrini departed and only Nilmar has really supplied regular touches of class. His form has nosedived in the last three months and it has really hurt the side. Guiseppe Rossi is a poacher and with no supply he is very unlikely to create an awful lot for himself. All of this has added up to a solitary win so far in La Liga and a disturbing lack of goals.
Getafe have never been accused of being entertaining apart from a brief spell under Michael Laudrup. They are a team that likes to keep it tight and hope to nick the odd goal, a bit like Bolton under Allardyce years ago. They have a tiny budget and are dwarfed in the supporter stakes by the much larger Madrid sides of Real Madrid and Atletico as well as even Rayo Vallecano. The fact they continue to compete in La Liga is down to good management. I see this one as being a cagey affair. Back Under Two Goals at 2.37 with Bet365.
Borussia Monchengladbach v Bayer Leverkusen , Saturday 1430
Now to my weekly Monchengladbach bet! They have not let me down yet this season and continue to eke out 1-0 wins with some regularity. The appointment of Lucien Favre as manager has led to a much more robust side and one that is perfectly comfortable defending a lead. They currently sit third in the Bundesliga and look good to continue the run until injuries or suspensions take a toll on a relatively small squad. They did lose their last match 1-0 away at Freiburg, but are currently unbeaten at home and have only conceded two goals in four home matches.
Leverkusen have been up and down so far already. They sit in mid table at this early stage and I would still expect them to push for Europe again this year. They have managed to lose 4-1 one week and win 4-1 the next and that sums up the sort of campaign they are having. They have scored goals, but also conceded and if Monchen can get ahead I would fancy them to hold on for another tight win.Back Borussia Monchengladbach at 2.75 with Coral.
Cesena v Fiorentina, Sunday 1130
If you can be bothered to get up early on a Sunday these days, you’re treated to the new early kick offs Serie A introduced last season. Sadly a lot of these matches have led to dull games that have reinforced stereotypes about Serie A that have always put off the casual football watcher. It seems that the early start has an effect on the players who often take a while to get going and can lead to casual looking play at times.
Cesena currently sit joint bottom of the table with only one draw to show for their five matches. They have only scored two in those games as well as conceding seven. Fiorentina sit in mid table mediocrity at this early stage as they have for much of the last two seasons. They still have the odd good player like Jovetic, Vargas and Montolivo, but they lack players around them to elevate them to better things. They have so far played two away matches conceding two whilst failing to score. This match has all the makings of a horrendous watch! Back the Draw at 2.2 at William Hill.
Lazio v Roma, Sunday 1945
The Eternal City derby takes place in the primetime Sunday evening slot and should be volatile as ever. It is a designated Lazio match at the Stadio Olimpico and Roma are also missing local boy and talisman Francesco Totti according to the media and the man himself. The two sides sit level on eight points in the table at present and have both looked good and poor in equal parts. Roma have been a lot more cavalier as was expected under new manager Luis Enrique who was brought in from Barcelona in something of an experiment to see if a more Spanish approach can be successful in Italy. So far it has had mixed results. But, it is very early stages and a lot of new players were brought in who need to acclimatise and get used to each other.
Lazio kept together a very solid squad from last season and added Djibril Cisse’s pace as well as Miroslav Klose’s experience to their options. These two have looked like adding something extra to the side and the Brazilian Hernanes has also impressed again for them in a deep lying playmaker role. He is still somehow not making the Brazil squad so should be fully rested for this match. Roma also have an appalling recent record in derby matches to add to reasons to oppose them. Back Lazio at 2.62 with Victor Chandler.
Orduspor v Eskisehirspor, Saturday 1300
Newly promoted Orduspor host last season’s surprise package Eskisehirspor in the early match in the Super Lig this weekend. Eskisehir started the season very well with triumph over Besiktas at home in their first match followed by thrashing Sivasspor 4-0 away in their second performance. Since then though they have drawn at home with Gencerbirligi and lost to both Galatasaray and Trabzonspor. Whilst losing to Gala and Trabzon is no great surprise it is the fact they have now failed to score in three games that worries most. It was their Achilles heel last season and looks to have continued to be a problem. Orduspor sit one place above them in the table having so far been undefeated in two home matches. They seem to be built as a tight, compact side who aim firstly not to concede and then to try and snatch a goal. They could capitalise against a thoroughly out of form Eski here. Back Orduspor at 2.4 with Stan James.
Gencerbirligi v Antalyaspor, Sunday 1300
The first Super Lig match on Sunday has another newly promoted side as hosts, this time with Gencerbirligi entertaining Antalyaspor. Neither side has stared the season particularly well and both will probably see this as a winnable match and one to push them further away from the bottom of the table. Gencer are actually unbeaten at home and have found points much harder to come by on their travels. This is a fairly common phenomenon in my experience of Turkish football, and minor leagues in general.
The travelling is normally not exactly in luxury and money dictates no long stays to get used to your surroundings at all. Antalyaspor are currently higher in the table, but have played five matches including four against some of the weakest opposition in the league, in my opinion. And they haven’t done that well against them either. I think their league position is something of a misnomer and would expect Gencer to give them a much better match than they have had so far except in their loss to Besiktas. Back Gencerbirligi at 2.5 with Stan James.
