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This article takes a statistical look at the top six sides to find out which sides are overperforming and underperforming. It also takes a look at the issues plaguing each side and what they need to correct to improve in the near future. This Premier League season has been full of ups and downs, largely the latter for most sides but mainly positives for current leaders Liverpool.
The top four race is far from decided as there are at least six to seven teams who can qualify for the Champions League. However, by looking at the Expected Goals (xG) for each side, it is possible to determine which sides are clinical and lucky and which ones are not.
What is Expected Goals(xG) and Expected Goals Against (xGA)?
Expected Goals is a statistical metric used by analysts and data scientists to look at the underlying statistics to see how a team is actually performing without looking at the results in isolation. For example, if a forward is faced with a one-on-one situation against the goalkeeper or is lining up for a penalty, more often than not the forward will be expected to score. This means that there is a high probability of a goal and therefore the Expected Goal(xG) would represent a high probability like 0.75, 0.7 etc.
The probability of any event happening is always between 0 to 1 where 0 is that the event cannot happen and 1 being the event sure to happen. Therefore if we look at the xG, we can find out if a team is overperforming or underperforming by analyzing whether their actual stats reflect their performances on the pitch.
Similarly, Expected Goals Against acts as the indicator for the defensive performances by analyzing the types of shots that a team concedes and therefore how likely they are to concede in every match.
Expected Points is a large scale metric which combines all the smaller metrics like xG, xGA etc. It looks at the larger picture and calculates the number of goals each team should have scored and conceded based on their xG and xGA. After calculating this, such individual values from each match are considered to see how it would have affected the result of that match. For example, if a team A has an xG of 1 and the opposite team also has an xG of 1 but team A wins 2-1, the expected result would have been a draw. Therefore, the Expected Points for team A would have been just one point.
1. Liverpool
Liverpool are yet to lose in the Premier League.19 wins, one draw and zero losses mean that the Reds are miles ahead of second-placed Leicester. The gap is currently at 13 points and barring a massive collapse, Liverpool look set to win the league with ease.
Liverpool have scored 49 goals so far with an xG of 43, which means they have overperformed their expected number by six goals. Jurgen Klopp's side have been quite lucky with the VAR calls and refereeing decisions this season but this takes nothing away from their imperious form. Although they may be overperforming offensively, they have very few inherent problems in their side barring maybe squad depth to a certain extent.
The reigning European champions' expected points at this stage is just 42, a massive difference of 16 points. However, it has to be said that the side winning the league always involves a fair share of luck and Liverpool can claim the same. This does not reflect much on the fact that they are a cohesive, consistent and ruthless machine.
2. Leicester City
Can Leicester City live out another fairytale? Few can forget their memorable title win a few years ago but some intelligent recruitment, strong team spirit and a meticulous coach mean that Leicester are back at the top end of the table as the Foxes sit second with 45 points.
They have scored 46 goals and conceded 19 while the xG and xGA metric has them with just 36 goals scored and a significantly more 26 goals conceded. This reflects that Leicester, like Liverpool, are overperforming and have an element of luck. Leicester's starting eleven has the pace, technique and power to beat any team in England but if injuries strike, the same cannot be said about their deputies.
As the season goes on, injuries to the likes of Jamie Vardy, James Maddison and Caglar Soyuncu could easily bring Leicester down to earth. Nevertheless, they should finish in the top four quite easily even if the xG reverts to the mean.
3. Manchester City
Pep Guardiola's City have had a rough campaign so far ravaged by injuries. They have already lost five games and sit in third with 44 points. The significant issues for City have come from injuries and a lack of depth in key areas. Aymeric Laporte's injury has been the biggest factor in City not having good defenders which has resulted in Fernandinho playing in defence and John Stones and Nicolas Otamendi being unreliable.
City's xG is 55 and they have scored 56 goals indicating that they are scoring the number of chances the are expected to convert. However, defensively, City are extremely susceptible to counter-attacks and being hit on transitions. They have conceded 24 goals, just one less than Manchester United, with an xGA of 22.
4. Chelsea
Chelsea made a blistering start to the season under new boss Frank Lampard which has slowly begun fading away. The Blues have lost seven games and sit just five points ahead of Manchester United in fourth. The main issues for Chelsea this season have been their lack of attacking output from their full-backs, lack of goals and creativity in midfield and ageing wingers.
Tammy Abraham has had a great start to the season but Willian and Pedro are no longer at the level of a side with top-four ambitions. Christian Pulisic is slowly adjusting to life in England but is still struggling for fitness. Even players like Mason Mount and Fiyako Tomori who impressed at the start of the season have lost form.
Chelsea need to invest in the squad urgently. Their xG at the moment is at 40 goals, four more than they have actually scored. Their expected points are also two more than their current tally of 36. This indicates that Chelsea have been slightly unlucky at times but not by a large enough margin to write off the issues present in the side.
5. Manchester United
United, for all their dull football and pessimism around Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, currently sit fifth place. The Norwegian has managed to make United well suited to the games against the big sides, with their first loss of the season to a top-six side coming against Arsenal recently.
The biggest issue with United is their approach to games against teams lower in the table. Losses to the likes of Watford and West Ham represent that United are unable to create chances against a deep-block and are susceptible to counter-attacks.
United's xG is 35 goals and they have currently scored 32, underperforming by 3 goals. Their xGA is also 3 fewer goals than the current 25 conceded. However, United are relying heavily on Anthony Martial and Marcus Rashford for goals and injuries or a loss of form could handicap their attack greatly.
6. Tottenham
Tottenham Hotspur sacked Mauricio Pochettino after a poor start to the season and replaced him with Jose Mourinho. While form has improved, Spurs do not look particularly good under Mourinho, especially defensively. The former United boss is known for his defensive nous and Spurs are yet to keep a clean sheet under Mourinho in the Premier League.
Their struggles originate in midfield with Tanguy Ndombele struggling for fitness, Christian Eriksen looking to leave and Moussa Sissoko and Harry Winks struggling to contribute to the attack. A bright spot under Mourinho has been the reinvigoration of Dele Alli. However, the structural issues out of possession and quality of players are still an issue. Spurs sit sixth with 30 points.
The expected point tally is also 30 so there can be no excuse of being unlucky. They have scored 36 goals while xG has them with only 27 goals scored, indicating that their attack has overperformed and could revert to the mean. Harry Kane's injury will also add to a possible goal drought. In defence, Spurs have conceded 30, the same as Arsenal who sit in tenth place and just three points behind. Mourinho needs to improve Tottenham's base if they are to find a cohesive attack and stop conceding goals.
How would the table be according to Expected Points?
The top six based on expected points is as follows:
1) Manchester City - 46 points
2) Liverpool - 42 points
3) Chelsea - 38 points
4) Manchester United - 38 points
5) Leicester City - 34 points
6) Wolverhampton/Tottenham/Southampton - 30 points
As one would expect, the bigger sides have individual players that can change a game in an instant which does not reflect completely in their xG. These moments of individual brilliance are what set them apart from the other sides although their performances may not have been the best.
