Overperformers and underperformers in the Premier League top six

4. Chelsea

Brighton & Hove Albion v Chelsea FC - Premier League

Chelsea made a blistering start to the season under new boss Frank Lampard which has slowly begun fading away. The Blues have lost seven games and sit just five points ahead of Manchester United in fourth. The main issues for Chelsea this season have been their lack of attacking output from their full-backs, lack of goals and creativity in midfield and ageing wingers.

Tammy Abraham has had a great start to the season but Willian and Pedro are no longer at the level of a side with top-four ambitions. Christian Pulisic is slowly adjusting to life in England but is still struggling for fitness. Even players like Mason Mount and Fiyako Tomori who impressed at the start of the season have lost form.

Chelsea need to invest in the squad urgently. Their xG at the moment is at 40 goals, four more than they have actually scored. Their expected points are also two more than their current tally of 36. This indicates that Chelsea have been slightly unlucky at times but not by a large enough margin to write off the issues present in the side.

5. Manchester United

Wolverhampton Wanderers v Manchester United - FA Cup Third Round

United, for all their dull football and pessimism around Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, currently sit fifth place. The Norwegian has managed to make United well suited to the games against the big sides, with their first loss of the season to a top-six side coming against Arsenal recently.

The biggest issue with United is their approach to games against teams lower in the table. Losses to the likes of Watford and West Ham represent that United are unable to create chances against a deep-block and are susceptible to counter-attacks.

United's xG is 35 goals and they have currently scored 32, underperforming by 3 goals. Their xGA is also 3 fewer goals than the current 25 conceded. However, United are relying heavily on Anthony Martial and Marcus Rashford for goals and injuries or a loss of form could handicap their attack greatly.

6. Tottenham

Middlesbrough FC v Tottenham Hotspur - FA Cup Third Round

Tottenham Hotspur sacked Mauricio Pochettino after a poor start to the season and replaced him with Jose Mourinho. While form has improved, Spurs do not look particularly good under Mourinho, especially defensively. The former United boss is known for his defensive nous and Spurs are yet to keep a clean sheet under Mourinho in the Premier League.

Their struggles originate in midfield with Tanguy Ndombele struggling for fitness, Christian Eriksen looking to leave and Moussa Sissoko and Harry Winks struggling to contribute to the attack. A bright spot under Mourinho has been the reinvigoration of Dele Alli. However, the structural issues out of possession and quality of players are still an issue. Spurs sit sixth with 30 points.

The expected point tally is also 30 so there can be no excuse of being unlucky. They have scored 36 goals while xG has them with only 27 goals scored, indicating that their attack has overperformed and could revert to the mean. Harry Kane's injury will also add to a possible goal drought. In defence, Spurs have conceded 30, the same as Arsenal who sit in tenth place and just three points behind. Mourinho needs to improve Tottenham's base if they are to find a cohesive attack and stop conceding goals.

How would the table be according to Expected Points?

The top six based on expected points is as follows:

1) Manchester City - 46 points

2) Liverpool - 42 points

3) Chelsea - 38 points

4) Manchester United - 38 points

5) Leicester City - 34 points

6) Wolverhampton/Tottenham/Southampton - 30 points

As one would expect, the bigger sides have individual players that can change a game in an instant which does not reflect completely in their xG. These moments of individual brilliance are what set them apart from the other sides although their performances may not have been the best.