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Almost half the Premier League season is over and we're already in December. Manchester City might run away with the title once again, and their local rivals Manchester United might not even make the Top 4.
But which teams have overperformed this season and are finding themselves in an unfamiliar position at the moment?
How do we calculate who is underperforming, though? This is done by studying the Expected Points, also known as xPTS, table. The Expected Points and the xG table can be found on the Understat website, from where most of this data is taken.
The likes of Manchester United overperformed massively last year by outshining their expected points of 62.33 (6th) by 18 points and finishing 2nd with 81 points.
Let us take a look at five PL teams that have overperformed this season:
#5 Everton
Everton find themselves in a strong position at 6th in the points table. According to xPTS, they should be 11th right now. The Toffees have enjoyed a fine run of form in the recent weeks, drawing against Chelsea and narrowly losing against Liverpool and United.
Everton fell to an embarrassing 0-3 defeat against West Ham at home. However, they managed to win five and draw one of their last eight games. Keeping in mind they faced 4 of the Big 6 during these gameweeks, this is quite a good run.
Everton have scored 20 goals and conceded 16 so far overperforming both their expected goals (19.55) and expected goals against (19.76). Due to this, they managed to exceed their 18.97 expected points by 3.03 points and now find themselves at 6th ahead of Manchester United.
Everton should look to make this place their own, which will guarantee them automatic Europa League qualification and getting inspired from it, they might as well challenge for the top 4 in the upcoming seasons.
#4 Brighton
Brighton have had a mixed start to the season, winning five and drawing three of their 14 matches.
However, it might have been even worse for them, according to xPTS which ranks them at 17th, 8 positions below their current standing on the table. The Seagulls are overperforming both on expected goals and expected goals against, managing to score two goals more than the expected 14 and conceding 4 goals less than the expected 24.
As a result, they have managed to get five more points, which has kept them far away from the relegation zone. The worrying thing for them is that they are going to face Chelsea, Arsenal, Bournemouth and Crystal Palace next, who are all in great form.
Also, Brighton's away form hasn't been all that good, winning just two matches on the road. However, if Chris Hughton's team manage to keep this form going, they will surely finish way above the relegation zone, which will be an achievement since they were considered to be one of the contenders to go down in the build-up to the season.
#3 Tottenham Hotspur
After Sunday's loss against Arsenal, Tottenham Hotspur ended their excellent run of form in which they beat Chelsea and defeated Inter Milan at Wembley to keep their hopes in the Champions League alive.
The Spurs have started the campaign with ten wins in 14 matches after losing to Manchester City, Arsenal, Liverpool and Watford at the start of the season. They have been solid at the back, conceding four goals less than the expected xGA.
As a result, they have massively overperformed by six huge points, getting two extra wins in the process. However, this wouldn't have made a huge difference in their position considering Everton are eight points behind them.
Spurs do not have too many difficult matches in the upcoming game weeks, and thus, they are likely to get back into the top four after a while. Spurs should look to build on their form of these past few weeks – barring the setback against Arsenal – so that Mauricio Pochettino and his team qualify for the UCL next season.
#2 Liverpool
Liverpool are the only team who are matching up with Manchester City on the points table, with just two points separating them from the defending champions.
However, their Champions League campaign hasn't been any good so far, with losses coming thick and fast against the likes of Napoli, Red Star Belgrade, and Paris Saint-German, winning zero games away from home.
The Reds have had a fine run of form in the league, though, drawing three and losing none in the season so far. According to xPTS, it might have been worse.
Liverpool have overperformed in expected goals against by conceding six goals less than expected. This has helped them surpass their expected points of 29 by seven and are now on 36 points, right behind City.
Although this wouldn't have changed their standing on the table, it would've surely affected the title race. Expected Points ranks Liverpool at 2nd but seven points behind City, pushing them further away from their maiden PL title.
Liverpool will have a mammoth task on their hand as they face a do-or-die match against Napoli in the Champions League, right before their derby against United in the league. Liverpool will also face Arsenal and City at the end of this year.
#1 Arsenal
After winning the North London Derby over the weekend, Arsenal entered the Top 4. A single point separates them from Chelsea now.
The Gunners have also reduced their deficit to Liverpool to just five points. Arsenal's main highlight of the season has been their impressive goalscoring form. They have now scored the second highest goals in the league (32).
According to xPTS and xG, the picture could've been bleak for Arsenal at this point in the season. Unai Emery and his team have exceeded their xG tally of 20.83 by 11.17 goals this season, outshining their xPTS by a massive nine points.
In the xPTS table, Arsenal are ranked ninth, below the likes of Bournemouth, Wolves, and Watford.
Arsenal have some tricky fixtures coming up, with their mid-week trip to Old Trafford and also an impending clash with Liverpool. This might challenge their league position going forward.
