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The round of sixteen ties have been announced, and the real part of the Champions League begins where the big teams start to face other in intense knockout matches. The Champions League is notoriously hard to predict because the winner usually needs a bit of luck in regards to who they get drawn against or the form of the opposition as well as injuries in their own team.
Each game is two legs until the final so any team could hit a poor run of form at the wrong time because no team can be consistent across an entire season. The margin of error is slim at the top, which helps make it such an exciting competition to watch for fans and neutrals alike. Without further ado, here are the five teams best equipped to be successful in May.
#5 PSG
The Parisian outfit have impressed in the group stage and even managed to set a record for goals scored with 25. No one is questioning the power of their forward line which was boosted in the summer by the signings of Kylian Mbappé and Neymar. However, there are issues around the squad which limit their chances of winning the competition.
They lack the balance that other big European super clubs have, so this is likely to be exposed when they face these teams later on in the competition. Marco Verratti has struggled this season and Adrien Rabiot is still learning even though he has impressed with his composure on the ball.
The fact that the front three are unwilling to track back compounds the issue. Emery also likes to play another creative player such as Javier Pastore or Ángel Di María alongside Verratti and Rabiot. Both of these decisions mean that the full-backs are often left isolated with the midfielders having to cover large areas of the pitch. One of the front three has to be sacrificed, and used as an impact substitute, if they want to be successful.
Another issue with the team is the lack of winning mentality when it comes to the difficult games in Europe. Some would point to the 4-0 win against PSG last season as well as the 3-0 win against Bayern this season as examples which negate that point. However, both of those results were against teams with serious issues even though they are both top teams, and both teams exacted their revenge in the return fixture.
The worrying aspect is that mentality seems to have carried across into this season even with the signing of big names who were supposed to stop this from happening. In all fairness, they just had to avoid losing by four goals or more to Bayern, so they were naturally going to lack intensity.
They were unlucky to be drawn with Real Madrid because that is the hardest tie that they could have received. This is a fixture between two heavyweights and the Parisian outfit will be determined to get past this stage because they famously crumbled last season at the same stage against Barcelona.
#4 Real Madrid
Los Blancos are looking to make history by winning a third consecutive Champions League, which is unprecedented since the European Cup was rebranded. They have struggled this season in both the league and in Europe, but they should never be underestimated.
The Champions League is the ideal competition for them because they thrive in individual big games rather than in a consistent run which is required in the league. They are also showing signs of improvement this season with a 5-0 win at home against Sevilla on Saturday.
Real Madrid boast one of the strongest squads in world football and they have a manager who knows how to effectively man-manage them. Zinedine Zidane may lack the tactical knowledge of other managers such as Pep Guardiola, but he excels at keeping the big players thriving. This is a key part of Real's success because it allows them the freedom to create.
The main issue for Real is that they lack the squad depth from last season and certain key players are unable to make up for that - last time around, they could basically rotate the entire first-team out for less important games last season and still produce results. Players such as Álvaro Morata and James Rodríguez were ridiculously talented substitutes to have.
This year players such as Karim Benzema have to make up for this shortfall, but they aren't able to produce the same effect which hinders Real. Key players are also not getting as much rest, so fatigue will be a real issue as the season progresses. They have players capable of saving their best for the big occasions, but a combination of stronger opposition and a weaker side than last year means they are unlikely to repeat their success.
They have a tough fixture in the round of sixteen because they face PSG. This is a fixture between two heavyweights and Los Blancos can't afford to exit the competition at such an early stage.
#3 Bayern Munich
The Bavarian giants' season looked disastrous at the start with Carlo Ancelotti being fired after a humiliating 3-0 loss to PSG, but his replacement, Jupp Heynckes, has revitalised the club with 11 wins from 13 games which included a 3-1 win against PSG. This run of form has put them comfortably ahead in the Bundesliga and reasserted their status as a top club in Europe.
Last season, Bayern were unlucky to be knocked out in the quarter-finals by Real with poor officiating to blame. They ended up playing extra-time with ten men after Arturo Vidal was wrongly sent off, so they were always likely to lose by that point but two offside goals compounded their misery.
Ancelotti was getting the minimum out of an extremely talented group of players reportedly because he focused on fitness and basic drills with the ball. This contrasted with in-depth tactical coaching as well as intense drills such as the rondo which were a key part of Pep Guardiola's time at the club.
With Heynckes, they have a manager who is able to get the best out of intelligent players such as Thiago Alcântara and Thomas Müller as well as more traditionally talented players such as Franck Ribéry and James Rodríguez. This mixture of different abilities and the squad depth that Bayern possess means that they have the potential to reach the final.
The best example of their potential is the win against PSG in which they pressed the ball intelligently as a team. They were comfortable at absorbing opposition pressure and restricted the number of chances that the Parisian outfit created, which is impressive considering their firepower. Most importantly, they had a clear gameplan which they executed perfectly. The performance was an impressive statement of intent for the rest of the season.
Bayern were lucky because they received one of the easier group winners in Besiktas. However, this will still be a tough tie and the Turkish outfit shouldn't be underestimated considering how they demolished the opponents in their group.
#2 Barcelona
Seeing Barcelona so high may surprise some especially considering the apocalyptic predictions that followed the humiliating defeat to Real Madrid in the Spanish Super Cup. However, Ernesto Valverde's men have impressed since then with a 22 game unbeaten run. They have turned into an efficient unit who may not be as exciting as they used to be but they know how to grind out a win.
Valverde has proven that he understands not only the key men but also the players on the fringe of the squad. This has allowed him to effectively rotate the squad with Lionel Messi even being rested for a total of 117 minutes over two games in the Champions League group stage.
This keeps the players fresh while also boosting the morale of the squad because they are in genuine contention for first-team places. His understanding of the various players allows him to fit them into roles that get the best out of them such as Paulinho and Paco Alcácer.
Valverde's tactical style also suits players such as Andrés Iniesta and Sergio Busquets because they have a greater control of games, than they did under Luis Enrique, through counter-pressing and intelligent positioning, which means they have less ground to cover. Across the three major competitions, they have only conceded eight goals in 22 games, so they now have a formidable defence that teams have to break through.
These results have been achieved without Ousmane Dembélé who was brought in to replace Neymar. His return should give them a creative boost that will aid them in the knockout stages. They also have the best player in the world, Lionel Messi, who has the creative tools and goalscoring threat to breach any defence. It will be a hard task for any team to beat them, but there is one team who look slightly stronger.
Barcelona didn't get the nicest of draws because they were paired with Chelsea. The English side have been hit and miss this season, but they were impressive when they beat Atlético Madrid away from home. They will be tough to break down with Eden Hazard being the major threat. The Catalans should have enough to overcome them, though.
#1 Manchester City
Pep Guardiola's side are the clear favourites for this year's competition. They may have just lost their first game of the season, but it was a dead rubber which was made clear by the team selection. They have been the best attacking side in Europe this season and have beaten the record for most consecutive wins in a Premier League season. Everton are the only side in the league to take points off them.
It took him a while, but Guardiola seems to have finally translated his ideas fully across to the City team. They are fluid at the front, dominant in the middle and solid at the back. To put the Catalan's philosophy into such simplistic notions does it a disservice, but they are clearly getting the fundamentals right.
The scary part of this for opposition sides is that this is sustainable throughout the season as well as into the future. City's core is young and Pep's coaching is transforming them into intelligent footballers to complement their obvious technical ability.
Players such as John Stones, Kevin De Bruyne, Raheem Sterling, Leroy Sané and Gabriel Jesus all have the potential to be world-beaters. That's only a brief summary because they have plenty of other talented players as well. This depth means that they can be kept fresh through rotation which allows them to compete on multiple fronts.
They do have weaknesses such as Fabian Delph playing in the left-back role, due to Benjamin Mendy's injury. Ederson also has to cover a lot of ground behind the defence due to the high defensive line that they employ in order to limit space between the lines and control the game. However, the composure on the ball that the majority of the squad have allows them to control games in key moments and they employ an effective counter-press when out of possession.
This is a truly cohesive unit working within an aggressive and exciting attacking philosophy. The knockout nature of the Champions League means that luck is a bigger factor than in the league, so various factors such as injuries could hamper them. However, it will still be tough for any side to beat them because they seem to have a solution for any potential issue.
Manchester City got a a relatively easy draw as well because they were drawn with FC Basel. The Swiss outfit shouldn't pose too many issues for them.
