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Despite Manchester United’s stirring second-half comeback against Newcastle in the last match before the international break, few of the club’s supporters will see the season to date as anything other than catastrophic.
The malaise started early – Jose Mourinho's pre-season gripes proved ominously prescient. He told fans not to come and watch their US tour matches, bemoaned the paucity of his squad and emphasized the need for reinforcements, particularly at centre-half.
The Board’s refusal to back their manager in the transfer market added to the sense of foreboding around Old Trafford, and the situation was compounded by the deterioration in the relationship between World Cup winner Paul Pogba and Mourinho. Fractious at the best of times, the relationship threatened to spill over into full-scale civil war as off-the-record briefings and pointed barbs from both were aimed at the other.
Results quickly reflected the sense of a team in difficulties. Three defeats in their first six league matches; hammered at home 3-0 by Spurs; losses away (and the concession of three goals each time) to Brighton and to West Ham; and knocked out of the League Cup by Championship side Derby. All served to create a sense of crisis around the Manchester giants.
United currently lie 8th in the table and are already 7 points worse off than at the same stage last year, when they finished runners-up to their dominant neighbours City. It’s, therefore, safe to assume that their performances this year have been much worse than last, isn’t it?
In fact, a lot of underlying performance metrics suggest that United are actually playing to a similar standard in many respects as last year.
Per game, they have actually had more shots (14.0 v 13.5), more shots on target (6.1 v 4.8), a greater share of possession (56.3% v 53.9%) and have conceded fewer shots against (10.4 v 11.5) than last year.
In addition, their Total Shot Ratio (57.4 v 54.1) and Shots on Target Ratio (56.3 v 55.4) are both better than last season (in other words they are typically taking more shots, and having more of them on target, than their opposition).
Interestingly, last year United ranked from 6th to 8th in the Premiership on each of these indicators. This year’s ranking for the individual indicators is more variable (2nd in shots on target, 4th in possession and 4th in Total Shot Ratio but 10th on Shots on Target Against), but it doesn’t suggest a team performing markedly worse than last year.
Jose has been hugely self-congratulatory on how well he did to obtain a runners-up spot last season. The underlying statistics, however, suggest that they didn’t actually play much better last year than this. In truth, United were probably no better than the 6th best team in the Premiership last season and are currently performing similarly so far this season.
The difference is largely down to the efficiency with which they are dealing with shots against them defensively. They are also using their own shooting opportunities in a worse manner. In both these categories, United's performance is markedly worse than last season (ranking 13th and 15th respectively compared with a ranking of 3rd and 1st in these metrics in 2017/18). They are converting less than they did last year with each shot taken; and conceding more for each shot faced.
These measures (shot and save %) are both much more variable year on year than other performance metrics. Interestingly, David De Gea has consistently produced one of the highest save percentages in the Premier League over recent years. His save rate this year, however, is among the poorest in the league. (Ironically his figures are more akin to the Liverpool - Mignolet/Karius - epoch last year while Alisson’s save % this year mirrors De Gea’s high rate from last season. Liverpool fans will no doubt enjoy that volte face).
This could reflect a number of factors. Perhaps United are conceding better quality chances to the opposition, or they are having a sustained period of bad luck or maybe De Gea’s ability to pull them out of a hole was always going to be pushed to breaking point at some stage.
Overall, if they had managed to sustain the Shoot and Save % from last season, they would have scored 5 goals more and conceded 6 goals fewer than they have this season. That’s a huge difference but the fact that United ranked 3rd and 1st respectively in these categories last year (well above the 6th-8th in the more ‘fundamental’ metrics) suggests again that they rode their luck in the 2017-18 season to finish second. Mourinho may want to reconsider just how much credit he should really take from last year’s runners-up spot.
The takeaways from this analysis are that United's performances this year are not actually that much worse than last year. They were probably fortunate to claim second last year, and perhaps a top 6 finish would have been a better reflection of their ‘true’ position over the course of the season.
This year, they are not converting enough chances, and De Gea is not saving at the same rate as in previous seasons. However, both these rates will probably correct over the course of the season and the Red Devils will start to obtain improved results and move up the table. Whether that will be enough to eke out a top 4 finish, however, is a matter of some conjecture.
